Rakes, Odds, Companies, 0% ...

Larry

Well-Known Member
1 Apr 2010
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Good morning to everyone,

(Sheet follows).

First of all, to say that I disagree with all the skirmishes in the forum, no reason. I don't know what has finally happened with the band or not (I'm talking about value and error), but I'm not looking for it much, I don't have the luxury of time, lately.
Starting with what was written there, I wanted to dig a little further into the 0% rake theme. Something didn't stick with all of this and I started looking for it in theory and also re-checking the code I had written and corrected 1-2 conditions and also rounded up more accurately the performances. The result was different and I will list below what happened.

I'll start with a question that nobody ever asked themselves, looking at the performance of the companies:

"Why do companies cut their package to find the CORRECT returns"? Or at least as correct as possible? Why recruit staff, statisticians, mathematicians, psychologists, economists. Why not give a performance of 5 up or 5 down and get the job done? And with a bunch of players coming together, I think it will give close to odds. Why;

Let's go a little bit at a simple but extreme example in mathematics to understand some things. The following yields are without rake.
Suppose we play singles in a bucket. Book A gives us 2,0-2,0 performance, mastery and good in math. Buccane B, who owns a rake but does a lot of math, gives us 1,50-3,00. Question: Which book will I play? And 2 without a rake.
In the second block I have 0,5 * 1,50 + 0,5 * 3,00 = 2,25 / 2 = 1,125, so + 12,5% average profit if I play at luck.
Here's another example: Buick A, the right one, gives us real 1,22-5,56 chances. That is, 82% -18%.
B comes again and tells us "I give 1,30-4,35". Irrelevant again? Yes but at our expense now:
0,82 * 1,30 + 0,18 * 4,35 = 1,85 / 2 = approx. 0,925. That is, the average gap -7,5%.
What do we see? That the buck, whenever he strays away from the real chances, he is very likely to be defeated or taken away by us.
Another example: Real odds 1,85-2,17, Book B gives 1,69-2,44. If we do the calculations, average profit + 1,7%.
If one looks at several examples, which I did, one would see that the closer the chances are to the 50-50, the lower the gain or the chuckle.

1 Conclusion: Buck wants a match that is close to 50-50 because it eliminates the possibility of a rash due to an error in estimation.
2 Conclusion According to 1, the player wants a long distance match in the odds because there he can take advantage of odds. In short, if I know that the XBook is underestimating or overestimating results, I choose 1,10-10 and not 1,50-3,00.

Someone will say, nice boy, but how do I know what to do? Should I play 10.000 bets on luck? Does it suit?

After fixing some things in the code, I ran it again and the result is in favor of the player and I'll explain the data.
I assume I'm playing under-over, I get a random value from 6-94 for over and the rest from 100 is under. Why from 6-94? To be able to underestimate or overestimate returns at random.
Then I raise or lower the actual 5 units, that is, if I have over 40%, then the company over will become 45%, which means that in percentages it would be 2,50 and 2,22. After I draw, random player selection and result: + 6% for player.
As I reduce the rate of overstatement or depreciation, the profit falls and ends up at 0, when the company's returns match the actual returns.
3 conclusion, companies want rake in to protect themselves from mistakes, obviously.

I was talking to someone who is a mathematician yesterday and after I told him the whole experiment, he told me that yes I can win, but again this is not the right strategy. So he told me that the right strategy is that since you win in the big shears, the strategy should be to "bet the highest return" and not blind.
In fact I tried it and the profits almost doubled: + 11%.
Then I remembered an old one in the forum saying and repeating "how do they calculate bf and give 500 performance? 1000 performance? Why not 400 or 900 respectively?".
He was probably right then, because the great returns are the great values ​​and the big mistakes.

I would like to say that these are my conclusions, in no way applicable since you cannot find thousands of games with 0% rake. Also the basic assumption that is made is that the stock is underestimated or overvalued at random with a probability of 50-50. If he does one of the two permanently, we will either become rich or go to prison.
I hope we all become a little wiser, get food for thought. I also don't want guns and am available to give code that I wrote for testing, maybe making mistakes. O @PyBet can read and write I guess, maybe other kids.

Balaton

Well-Known Member
1 Nov 2008
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Things are very simple for a company trainer if he does his job properly. He's open to a quartet of screens some have on 6, one on betradar with what he has to watch, one on the company he works for, one on betfair and one on party. The goal of a trader is either to give the average he wants, or if he is a star to those who have shouldered a normal performance and to be a little bit faster, a little faster than the market. That is, even if he thinks that a point will be in 1,80 at the time that point is 2, 10 should not give 1,80 from the beginning but give 2,00. Is the market going to 2,00? He goes to 1,90. He is not interested in throwing himself out of the box and not getting big bets elsewhere. After all, being able to predict a price does not mean it will be verified. So either he knows it or he doesn't know a market he will be right after playing at the prices of others. Let's get to the player's part now, the trader will hardly look at a player's profile unless he plays a lot of money where if he is red he will leave him because he is red if he wins a lot of money, if he is green, if he chooses specific things like indonesia football while not playing any european football, going for a limit is a matter of time to go in as well as playing volleyball, handball, and so on .. If so. new and reduces green for a while eats a limit if it becomes green for a while you watch him as if you need to put a limit on him. The general conclusion is that you will not make any money with a soft patent only with a lot of money. In all other cases you are limited. Well I wrote these to forget about the case that I can win a company. You don't win it because you are going to lose the opap you don't win in playing with an 15% rake, that one can only do in the exchange.

Larry

Well-Known Member
1 Apr 2010
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I put the theory (if I'm not mistaken somewhere).
Yes, when the company has the rake pad, any company mistake that would be useful is lost to the player.
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Balaton

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1 Nov 2008
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And theory for me has a mistake and I'll tell you. Suppose one plays only the outsiders and while it comes out positive at prices such as 2,80-5,00 it does not come out positive at prices higher than 5. What do we do if we only play underdogs? The numbers of course need to be verified, that is to say some odds over 5 are to be won but if the matches that are higher than 5 and verified do not belong to those that have 0 rake then they are not betting then what? This theory has many uncertainties that this theory cannot substantially confirm. For example, Nikos, who works as a senior trainer in the company, selects zero rake matches where 60% wins the favorites in 1,6 performance and resigns and takes over the 66% confirmed favorites in the 1,60% chance. do you react when you don't know as a player that Stavros replaced Nick while those who know the percentage know why they work for the company and keep records? There are so many uncertainties that in fact even theory is almost impossible to confirm.

goal2

Well-Known Member
25 Apr 2016
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I'll start with a question that nobody ever asked themselves, looking at the performance of the companies:
"Why do companies cut their package to find the CORRECT returns"? Or at least as correct as possible? Why recruit staff, statisticians, mathematicians, psychologists, economists. Why not give a performance of 5 up or 5 down and get the job done? And with a bunch of players coming together, I think it will give close to odds. Why;
My conclusion as of now is that depending on the company, each one is protected by performance gaps that he gives with different mod.Asia-Pinnacle by delaying to open returns having the advantage of seeing the trend in other companies, and when they open European by limiting players who make mistakes, and copying performance from others (Bet365 in the beginning and after Asia). Co-workers, for me, corporation excludes all companies, I believe they have few, and all to have If you exclude any 20 well known European championships, the big international match, in almost all other championships the original sets of soft book starters and bet365 subsequently, very often do not include a neutral seat or a common seat. That alone tells me a lot: That companies consider this to be primarily the business of the players. And of course, in some cases the mistake of deliberately giving up and trader doing trading as a player is not excluded.

stxma

Well-Known Member
1 Oct 2008
1,079
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I put the theory (if I'm not mistaken somewhere).
Yes, when the company has the rake pad, any company mistake that would be useful is lost to the player.
Have you noticed a favorable performance from the moment it opens, until the race starts, statistically the favorite has fallen?

Fairplay

Well-Known Member
18 Mar 2015
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I put the theory (if I'm not mistaken somewhere).
Yes, when the company has the rake pad, any company mistake that would be useful is lost to the player.
Without any arguments, it is not right to say .....
If you believe what you are saying you should have stopped betting already ...

There is one and only way to beat the rake. Let's put it not 5% but 10% ....
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GUSA12

New Member
22 Nov 2018
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Things are very simple for a company trainer if he does his job properly. He's open to a quartet of screens some have on 6, one on betradar with what he has to watch, one on the company he works for, one on betfair and one on party. The goal of a trader is either to give the average he wants, or if he is a star to those who have shouldered a normal performance and to be a little bit faster, a little faster than the market. That is, even if he thinks that a point will be in 1,80 at the time that point is 2, 10 should not give 1,80 from the beginning but give 2,00. Is the market going to 2,00? He goes to 1,90. He is not interested in throwing himself out of the box and not getting big bets elsewhere. After all, being able to predict a price does not mean it will be verified. So either he knows it or he doesn't know a market he will be right after playing at the prices of others. Let's get to the player's part now, the trader will hardly look at a player's profile unless he plays a lot of money where if he is red he will leave him because he is red if he wins a lot of money, if he is green, if he chooses specific things like indonesia football while not playing any european football, going for a limit is a matter of time to go in as well as playing volleyball, handball, and so on .. If so. new and reduces green for a while eats a limit if it becomes green for a while you watch him as if you need to put a limit on him. The general conclusion is that you will not make any money with a soft patent only with a lot of money. In all other cases you are limited. Well I wrote these to forget about the case that I can win a company. You don't win it because you are going to lose the opap you don't win in playing with an 15% rake, that one can only do in the exchange.
I agree with you, one way that at least works for me (for all time) is live.
Because my bets are 70-30 live-prematch, I find that mistakes occur in various odds (I compare 365, Pinyin, Sbo) and other books when they occur and I bet them sometimes and I think it helps to avoid eating too much. or at least prolong it.
Let me stress again how it works for me at the moment.
* Always in football markets.

Larry

Well-Known Member
1 Apr 2010
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864
113
Without any arguments, it is not right to say .....
If you believe what you are saying you should have stopped betting already ...

There is one and only way to beat the rake. Let's put it not 5% but 10% ....
@fairplay No reason to argue, just enough proof or logic (I prefer 2o).
I have stopped playing the right way of betting, ie single games. And this is because I have no capital, so that I can have some decent profits in a reasonable time.
Now if you say forecasting as a way to beat the rake, I don't disagree. Just my experience so far shows that few earn it ...
@ Balaton Yeah maybe you're right. In my experiment I thought that the company would constantly overestimate or underestimate the same percentage of games and if something changes, the condition may not apply anymore.
But I can assume that if I collect all the companies and their returns, the average returns will be very close to the real. Which means that the highest performing company has to bet.

Fairplay

Well-Known Member
18 Mar 2015
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@fairplay No reason to argue, just enough proof or logic (I prefer 2o).
I have stopped playing the right way of betting, ie single games. And this is because I have no capital, so that I can have some decent profits in a reasonable time.
Now if you say forecasting as a way to beat the rake, I don't disagree. Just my experience so far shows that few earn it ...
@ Balaton Yeah maybe you're right. In my experiment I thought that the company would constantly overestimate or underestimate the same percentage of games and if something changes, the condition may not apply anymore.
But I can assume that if I collect all the companies and their returns, the average returns will be very close to the real. Which means that the highest performing company has to bet.
Good morning ...:)
With the foresight you never beat the rake in the long run, so again we disagree but who cares?:)
The rest of what you say about the non-existence of kavas is all understandable and humane, after all we all bet on his money just as much as he loves it ...
The most important thing is losing - winning to know why you lost - winning .... if you lose and you don't know why you will lose again because you don't know what to avoid ... if you win and you don't know why you can't repeat why you lost the recipe ....
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stxma

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1 Oct 2008
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Let me give you an example with 0%,

2,43 -3,40-3,40

if 2,43 comes, what does it mean?

if x = 3,40 comes what does it mean?

and if 2 comes = 3,40 what does it mean?

Based on what does Bouk suppose to come?

Fairplay

Well-Known Member
18 Mar 2015
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At least say what you meant when you said the rake was winning ... How?
Gladly :)
You completely ignore the rake and wish it well and 10% the book when you actually manage to find valium but with 30% plus ...

And in order not to be theoretical about the conversation and for the younger ones to give a tangible example .... yesterday iliakis (his bravo) gave an 1dnb @ 5,00 from 3 Norway which ended almost on 2,00 ...
Played on 5,00 ....
Closed on 2,00 ....
Find out for yourself what an advantage it had and subtract the rake to see the net advantage it had ....
What are we talking about?
And all this no matter the result .... going out or losing a particular bat doesn't say anything .... we care about the whole ....
I think I was clear ...
For the story, the bet came out, and in fact, we said it didn't play a role.
A big gift to Mr. Iliakis :)

Fairplay

Well-Known Member
18 Mar 2015
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Gladly :)
You completely ignore the rake and wish it well and 10% the book when you actually manage to find valium but with 30% plus ...

And in order not to be theoretical about the conversation and for the younger ones to give a tangible example .... yesterday iliakis (his bravo) gave an 1dnb @ 5,00 from 3 Norway which ended almost on 2,00 ...
Played on 5,00 ....
Closed on 2,00 ....
Find out for yourself what an advantage it had and subtract the rake to see the net advantage it had ....
What are we talking about?
And all this no matter the result .... going out or losing a particular bat doesn't say anything .... we care about the whole ....
I think I was clear ...
For the story, the bet came out, and in fact, we said it didn't play a role.
A big gift to Mr. Iliakis :)
Don't just speculate that with 30 you have such a limit etc etc .... the bet is unfortunately .... you win and sometimes you lose the limit and you are the best customer of the bottle ...
Only with the right prediction can you beat the short term or the medium term ...... in the long run it will earn you as good a prediction as you have ....

A big pillow ..... a great pillow as a good friend of mine says ... the bigger the better .....

loxagos mark

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9 IOL 2013
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lake of the penthouse
On the one hand, the opinion is honest, but with what reason did she share it?
The Czech Republic has played 4 races with strong midfielders and bad guys. Montenegro also 4 races in the same circumstances.
The Czech Republic has won the 2 matches and lost the other 2 .... 50% wins.
Montenegro has 2 defeats and 2 Draws.
With 2 draws it occupies the other 50% of the other side.
You tell me playing and winning is not 50% the draw rate.
From nowhere to 50% the Czech stopper wins.
What we have???? 2.00 Performance for Czech Republic Numbers Say.
To pinch the seat a little? 2.10 I think it's good to see ... oh what a coincidence;)
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stxma

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For Lary, apparently the book has cost him the example of a fight
soo%% .jpg


will be 90% at least point X = 3,65, and cause the Chinese to bait 2,15 out of there.
Because normally X had to have the 1,30 poly !!
Don't you wonder why X rarely drops below 2,60?

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