Is the breaking of favorites predictable?

cosmicsports

Well-Known Member
30 IOL 2010
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I mean the bookies say 1-X-2 and we say 2-X-1.
Of course it doesn't always happen but sometimes it happens as I will explain.

Cases where it is not possible:
One was Borussia - Mainz yesterday. In this match, there was no reason to play Borussia with the maximum odds of 1.18 favorites that they give us in German, but the ace did not break with any logic.
Another one was AEK - Ionikos 0-1 in 2005. AEK was going for the championship, Ionikos had fallen mathematically and Vangelakis Vlachos came out on the radio and said "leave us, we have fallen, AEK will have a healthy walk". Of course, Vangelakis was a wicked fox and would have taken something from the greens to eat irons, but here too there is no logic in breaking the ace.

But there are also situations where it happens.
I will say the main ones and then the minor ones.

1st) Alketification - Every year someone will suffer from this. But suppose we are in the Alketa year, 1987-88. We are at the peak of the Alketization of the legend in the month of November, before the advent of Taby-Agire-Funes. On the one hand, the bookies would give us Olympiacos as favorites every time, and on the other hand, they would lose all the time. What else do you think would happen?

2nd) Indifference
- E.g. Olympiacos - Corfu. This is of course a bit of a double-edged sword. In any case, the favorite is no bet but it is played and not to show indifference.
If we know that the favorite goes down with the second-third, then yes we break it (but in this case the bookies will probably react as well).

3rd) Bad psychology after unfavorable results - The same as alketization is basically this, but of shorter duration usually.

4th) Avavau - This one for sure. Difficult, however, because the last one that predicted the avavau was eaten with fried potatoes at Easter.

Secondary are:

a) Absences.
b) Track condition, snow-slush.
But this is something that tends to disappear in modern stages.
c) Behind closed doors-neutral. And these count for little in modern football.

That's it in short.
I have pointed out that the breaking of favors is the only way to win if done correctly.
But there is also a problem.
How can one express these with a mathematical parameter?
A performance 1.35-4.50-7.50 is done in variant logic 7.50-4.50-1.35 ; Something in between ; What ;

If one follows this tactic something else emerges:
He must play teams - competitions for which he has sufficient information.
China - Japan - Australia you play must not be played again.
 
Last edited:
you opened cosmic subjects.
I agree that it happens
how? pregame stats+ingame stats I think this is the appropriate combination
what you mentioned above is all pregame, if you put the inplay stats into the equation then you have a much clearer picture of the game and you can make a better prediction.
look at it like this: pregame = past, live = present, if these two coincide, then the chances of a correct prediction increase.
now the example with the returns is extreme. you will never find such wrong returns.
but if we assume that the x favorite is 1.35, which has any of the elements you mentioned above (bad series of results, for example) and is not playing so well while we are at 65 against an opponent who has been doing well lately and is also playing well in this particular game it is not worth betting on the host's over0.5 or x-2 or under 1.5 etc.
simply to do this you must have specific and tested selection criteria, which have a high percentage of verification, which you achieve by trial and error.
the Japanese is a great league, I inform you :)
 
Last edited:
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you opened cosmic subjects.
I agree that it happens
how? pregame stats+ingame stats I think this is the appropriate combination
what you mentioned above is all pregame, if you put the inplay stats into the equation then you have a much clearer picture of the game and you can make a better prediction.
look at it like this: pregame = past, live = present, if these two coincide, then the chances of a correct prediction increase.
now the example with the returns is extreme. you will never find such wrong returns.
but if we assume that the x favorite is 1.35, which has any of the elements you mentioned above (bad series of results, for example) and is not playing so well while we are at 65 against an opponent who has been doing well lately and is also playing well in this particular game it is not worth betting on the host's over0.5 or x-2 or under 1.5 etc.
simply to do this you must have specific and tested selection criteria, which have a high percentage of verification, which you achieve by trial and error.
the Japanese is a great league, I inform you :)

- The ingame basically changes according to the fluctuation of the score.
- I didn't say Japanese is not good, but I'm not online with Hirohito.
 
- The ingame basically changes according to the fluctuation of the score.
- I didn't say Japanese is not good, but I'm not online with Hirohito.
that's exactly what I said above. if the pregame+inplay agree.
if the chances of the x favorite not passing due to pregame stats is 30%, for example, if you combine it with the inplay stats and they agree, then the verification rate can reach 50%.px.
what are the selection criteria for pregame and inplay, each one sets his own, he tests them and if they are verified well, if not, you try to improve them or change them finally.
 
that's exactly what I said above. if the pregame+inplay agree.
if the chances of the x favorite not passing due to pregame stats is 30%, for example, if you combine it with the inplay stats and they agree, then the verification rate can reach 50%.px.
what are the selection criteria for pregame and inplay, each one sets his own, he tests them and if they are verified well, if not, you try to improve them or change them finally.

But how ;
Sometimes when I see and the players reach the area easily, I overplay - if it pays.
Also the format Olympiacos - Panseraikos for goals in the last minutes.
What examples do you have for inplay?
 
But how ;
Sometimes when I see and the players reach the area easily, I overplay - if it pays.
Also the format Olympiacos - Panseraikos for goals in the last minutes.
What examples do you have for inplay?
what am i looking at
shots on target
possession
especially ball possession has to be the most underrated statistic, overlooked by almost everyone.
also
minutes of play
and of course the score.
this definitely with a combination of prestat, as you very correctly said above.
I'll give you an example from yesterday.
ASO Chlef v NC Magra 1.50-3.60-6.50 pregame odds. Clef is invincible, Mangra is bad with 3 defeats/1 draw
in the last 4.

0-1 half time.
very much in possession of the favorite, without being combined with a shot on goal in the second half and the final remains 0-1.
betting options in the second half too many.
with two diametrically opposite groups.
see Mr. George's topic with his own selection criteria, I repeat that Mr. George has found a gold mine.
 
what am i looking at
shots on target
possession
especially ball possession has to be the most underrated statistic, overlooked by almost everyone.
also
minutes of play
and of course the score.
this definitely with a combination of prestat, as you very correctly said above.
I'll give you an example from yesterday.
ASO Chlef v NC Magra 1.50-3.60-6.50 pregame odds. Clef is invincible, Mangra is bad with 3 defeats/1 draw
in the last 4.

0-1 half time.
very much in possession of the favorite, without being combined with a shot on goal in the second half and the final remains 0-1.
betting options in the second half too many.
with two diametrically opposite groups.
see Mr. George's topic with his own selection criteria, I repeat that Mr. George has found a gold mine.

At 6.50 how long was it at half time?
The X-2?
 

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