Question about drop in returns

[nkle]

Good morning.
I would like to ask if you use the odds drop to export forecasts and to what extent.
E.g. If a point 1-2 hours before the start of the match drops 15-20% is it right to bet?
There are games where a point at a depth of 12-24 hours can drop up to 30% (betexplorer).
Can we find such a site useful for exporting forecasts?

 

[grosan]

Answer: Question about falling odds

my opinion ...... not worth it !!!!!!

 

[nkle]

Answer: Question about falling odds

my opinion ...... not worth it !!!!!!

However, many rely on this to make a first choice for the games they will choose.

 

[kriapa]

Answer: Question about falling odds

I believe that the fall plays a role but if you are not absolute, you will see cases where this will not be verified.

 

[Alexandros79]

Answer: Question about falling odds

I do not use the odds drop to make predictions but as a tool to check what news, information or opinion about my game may have escaped me when I see a drop that initially seems unjustified.

 

[Alexandros79]

Answer: Question about falling odds

They are also useful when I have any doubts for example whether a player essential to a team will start or not.
If the odds drop suddenly and abruptly, the player will probably be in the starting 11th.
If the opposite happens, probably not.

 

[demetrio26]

Answer: Question about falling odds

Good morning.
I would like to ask if you use the odds drop to export forecasts and to what extent.
E.g. If a point 1-2 hours before the start of the match drops 15-20% is it right to bet?
There are games where a point at a depth of 12-24 hours can drop up to 30% (betexplorer).
Can we find such a site useful for exporting forecasts?

Definitely in non-commercial leagues it is a useful tool. If nothing else, it shows a direction, which if it goes against your own forecast then it should make you think about whether you should bet. In any case, blindly following odds drops mathematically leads to cell 33 . To put it another way, if one uses it as a complementary tool, then yes it can be accepted as excellent. If someone goes and bets blindly on every fall, steep or not, he has no luck.

 

[nikos_8384]

Answer: Question about falling odds

Usually another thing is a fall eg from 2.00 to 1.80, and another at 1.30. The first can be read that the market found value at 2.00 but not at 1.80, while in the case that the fall reaches 1.30, it means that the market found value and at 1.80-1.60-1.50-1.40 etc. Also, sometimes you see books that have opened very high and some prices after the opening of books that lead in the market, to correct aron aron so as not to be out of market and create arb situations For someone who does not want to play arp, it is best to always buy the prices that will fall in the future, but this is something very difficult to predict. live, but in no case can it be considered a method of prediction.

 

[create_bet]

Answer: Question about falling odds

Personally, the drop in the odds as a sign of playing is outdated .. If we were talking about 07 -08 ok, but now it takes you to cell 33. As a general sign ok but so far. In general, a game that has been "hit" hard usually "breaks" for whatever reason .. It has happened in recent days. Personally, in the last few days I have played 5 games that were literally dissolved and passed the 2. The most correct (personal point of view) to do is to cover / sell / cash if you do not believe 100%.

 

[nkle]

Answer: Question about falling odds

I return to the issue of falling yields after a long time. From the posts of friends it seems that it is not the safest way to export predictions.
I want to share my personal experience for about a month.
I see the performance behaviors from two websites that help me set them up. I do not know if they are the best of their kind. btfodds and bookodds.
When I see a satisfactory change (mainly a fall) I include the fight in my choices. I do not deal with odds below 1,5.
Singles with fixed profit, doubles and triples. All with the smallest bet because it is trial.
The verification reaches around 55% with odds of approximately 1,7-4,00. I know the sample is small but I think it is encouraging.

 

[demetrio26]

Answer: Question about falling odds

I do not want to discourage you, but in the past because I had sat down and dealt virtually with the odds for 2 years (I had plenty of time then), you will not have long-term results playing every odds drop. Many tried to play like that, no one succeeded in the end. The conclusion I had drawn then was that although the yield drops have a relatively good verification, but not in the yield that had fallen. If it were possible to find and play at 1,85+ a point that fell from 2,00 to 1,60, then yes you can probably make a profit in the long run. That was my conclusion. Tip and if you want to follow it. Note the games that have odds drops, and if you find it live at the odds it had before the drop started (ie close to 2,00 based on the previous example), hit it. I do not know if it will work, I have not tried it and neither is it because there is no time (you will need 12 hours in front of a computer), but you definitely have more chances than the tried (and not successful) of thousands of players '' I bet based on moves Playing the fallen odds is exactly what betting companies want! And never forget, most of the time the odds fall because you, me, the neighbor, the grandfather rather than next door, have bet. In other words, we players throw the odds, like a wave ... says nothing most of the time.

 

[nklaps]

Answer: Question about falling odds

Good morning. Nice theme.
I would like to look at it from 2 perspectives: in terms of value and in terms of who or what throws the odds.

1) let's say you see a 50% ace and they give it to you at 2.40. The next day the ace goes to 2.10. you say "nice", it fits my script, let me bet now that the "fall" shows that I was right. What did we achieve? A 50% ace that we would "buy" at 2.40, now we will bet at 2.10, ie with (clearly) less value.

2) We are in La Liga, Real Madrid is playing against Las Palmas and the ace opens at 1.20 and after a while it is "pressed" (be careful of course not ... be stressed!) And go to 1.10. Who do we think drove the odds and what is the value of this drop? Do we believe that this fall was caused by "smart money"?
Respectively, we are in the Championship ... Uzbekistan (which almost no one deals with anyway) and the champion is playing in the penultimate seat where it is a question of having made 2 victories in the whole Championship. The Company has included in the coupon the Uzbekistan Championship "out of obligation" (come on mom now, who cares and a bored trader puts a 6.00 on the home team to have a go. But come on, the champion is petite, come on, she has 3-4 basics suddenly with viral gastroenteritis that have plagued them in the serums at the Tashkent General Hospital, come on, the coach of the "little girl" made a career in the big team and there are "ties" and memories that the latter are learned by 2-3 Uzbeks and their families and a specific one here at infobeto (we do not say names) and the trader wakes up the next day and sees a bunch of bets on the ace and the odds "dissolve". Is it the same here now? No.

Dortmund played Tottenham in the Europa League last March. I was surprised by the odds of the double of the excellent Tottenham, which was around 6.00. 1-2 hours before the match this 6.00 became 8.00 and of course the Dortmund ace fell further. I did the stupid thing of betting double, believing that 8.00 was super value. If I had bothered to read that Pochettino had a scuffle for the match and dropped a lot of "seconds", I would not be playing. Welcome guys: Dortmund 3-0! So when we see something strange, we always ask "why" but the answer is not always easy.

In order not to get tired, I believe that as we personalize each match to see what we will play, so each drop of odds is individualized. However, I think it is wrong to wait for the odds to fall to give us a reason to play, because that's how we lose value. However, after playing we can see where the performance will go, but in order to interpret the changes, we have to look for why.

 

[Shadowcaster]

Answer: Question about falling odds

The only way one can take advantage of falling odds is to take the risk and bet in the hope that the odds will fall even more.
In any other case it will be lost in the long run.