The discussion is very long and I do not know if I will be on topic or not. Sorry in advance.
The probability of betting I think has a theoretical basis. And this is because, when a match takes place e.g. the match
Chelsea - Wolves. it does not matter to the reader if I say that the set of odds is 55-25-20, because in the end it will only come
A result. Whatever the match, there is no way I know I was right in the odds.
It is not (I mean) like rolling the dice as we know that the probability of rolling a "6" is 16.6%.
The outcome of a football match depends on a cart (literally) parameters and if someone says that the ace is for 55% or for 57% or for 62%, I can not say anything to support it or to refute it .
Many parameters before the match: Form, image inside, image outside, form inside form outside, delivery, absences, motivation are some parameters. Now we have mediocre seats from the empty stadiums of Koronovios, we also had the interruption of Koronovios, that is, it was currently looking for.
And many unpredictable factors at the time of the match, which are impossible to predict, determine the outcome
Does that mean the odds are slim?
No, but in order to approach them we have to make some assumptions.
First of all, the probability in the bet has the following meaning. What in the season we are called to play many times and not just once. If in a season I have bet 100 chances that I "see" 20%, then I would like (to say that I "see" correctly) at the end of the 100 to pass somewhere around 20. And more to pass just fine I am from of the result. If they spend significantly less I have an issue.
BUT this discussion would have NOTHING but NOTHING if there was not the top parameter of the bet: the
Performance.
Let's go back to the Chelsea-Wolves example match (which I supposed to estimate 55-25-20) and let's look at it from the outsider's point of view.
If they give me in the Chelsea - Wolves match the double 5.00 and below, I will thank them warmly, I will say hello to them and I will go further.
If they give me the double at 5.50, some will say that we have value.
I disagree here. We have nothing because:
1) no one can guarantee that the probability of Wolves is 20% and it is not 17%. I repeat, probability is a completely theoretical concept in football. It is only in our minds.
2) Even if it is really 20%, (theoretically), the advantage we achieve (10%) is very small and it will take VERY many such matches to prove that our strategy works. Apart from that,
3) dealing with 20% odds, it is possible which advantage is "swallowed" by the negative fluctuation before we discover that we can be marginally profitable. In other words, in the first 20 such matches we can catch only 2 eg and we have played them only with an odds of 5.50.
But we do not mind all the above because there is no bet and no one forces us to play under these conditions. The small advantage, I do not consider it an advantage and I do not deal with it. If one is engaged, one does well for oneself.
But what happens in the event that Buk from his inherent weakness wants to cover his ears in the victory of the big favorite, give us the Wolves with odds e.g. 8.50;
Then,
if criteria are met for the favorite and the underdog (which we have defined and which we have described) and if we "see" as we said, the probability of the underdog 20%, we play and you understand that we have the following paradox:
That in the end we do NOT need to be "magicians" with the possibilities. And to have fallen a little out, we have gained such a big advantage that in the end in 100 such matches, even if not the 20 we believe pass, but even the 15, we will be profitable. And our profitability will be seen early, in a few relatively few matches.
It therefore does not make sense to "argue" with each other if the probability is 22% or 18% when we have reached such a point at 8.50. Chances do NOT matter anymore.
Now, the "how much and above" we play a point that we "see" at 20% is in everyone's judgment. For the specific match in the example I e.g. below 6.50-7.00 I generally would not play it.
* The example was chosen completely randomly and refers to a theoretical match between the two teams in the middle of the season.
Coincidentally, the teams are playing the last game and it seems that both will be motivated. I am not referring to this match, nor am I interested in getting involved in pregame in order to have to take out a set of odds.
Odds, after all, have not come out yet. One Company took out 1.78 the ace and 4.15 the double (and withdrew them) and if the odds are really around there, far and beloved!
Sorry for the download.
