I haven't seen it yet, but I imagine it has the power of Kramer against Kramer, who had scanned then. My choices are in the realm of Spheres + performance of course.I saw Marriage Story just before. I really think that this Baumbach should be a thick scythe. Otherwise I can't justify so many nominations for a movie that I think has nothing to give us or tell us anything special. Well, Driver's interpretation of De Niro is light years away, I wonder what the grandfather left behind in relation to the young man. Even his own interpretation of BlacKKKlasman is superior to that in this movie. I can't say anything about Scarlett because I haven't seen any of the other nominations. Her interpretation was good, though.
I imagine your choices are based on performance rather than logic. Anyway, if I wanted men to play underdogs I would put Bandera on ....
1) The Joker is the Joker and the Spheres have more courage to reward him than the Academy.
2) Phoenix will be hard to miss, but Drewaver is not that far off.
3) The Ball in Comedy usually doesn't mean anything, and often the award-winner doesn't even enter the Oscars, so the chance of standing ovation at Eddie Murphy at over 2,00 is very good.
4) Zelwenger is very likely to sweep the awards for this film that no one will ever see, but at the end of the day, Goddess Johansson has the biggest chance for a prize from Marriage Story.
5) Feldsmart is a sister of Jonah Hill. Here she is nominated for a movie like the wonderful Superbad, and for a role like her brother. That dreadful film and hilarious rendition had gone under the radar of the awards, but the semantics and the tendency of history to recover in conjunction with performance are great ...
Finally, though I'm not playing stoiximan, I highly recommend Aniston for the Globe in a dramatic 2,50, so that the Globe 2020 can say it's the show Brad Pitt and Jennifer Aniston together!
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