I'm a little confused with coronavirus statistics.
At the moment we are all in quarantine which of course I adhere to and I also believe that measures to limit the unnecessary traffic of citizens should be made more stringent. Certainly in the first few days between the closure of the shops and the (semi) traffic ban we saw scenes of infinite beauty, on the beaches and on the benches that various types of ten-man bourgeois liked. Now we have the ... plumbing.
So I think the measure should be automated as follows:
With every request for exit they will send us a sms or email code, which we will have to keep with us when we go out, and the police officer who will stop us on the road being able to check the validity of that code, as well as our identity.
The code should be valid for half an hour for simple cases (shopping) and for more hours if we have stated something more serious such as going to hospital.
For employees to have longer codes and of course the police officers themselves to have their own code, which will apply as long as they are in service. The distance from each person's place of residence will also be determined. 500 meters - and for workers on a specific route.
My questions now are:
As of March 31, we have 1200 cases and 45 deaths, ie 3.5%. So since we've been told - since the Chinese era - that the overall mortality rate is 3.5%, it means that at the very least we have at least one hundred more cases waiting to happen. So we are almost unraveling in Greece, or we are probably on a good way to unraveling.
How would I define unraveling? I would argue that we have no virus since the daily outbreaks detected are zero plus a standard 14 day quarantine period (but not for overseas contacts as we all still have a long way to go).
But we are also told that the 1200 cases are the ones recorded in the hospitals and that there are ten out there who are either receiving home treatment or are in an early state. I don't believe this but if I do believe then the mortality rate is 3.5 percent and not 3.5 percent. So coronavirus is just a simple flu, but the specificity is spreading faster than just the flu.
What applies to both?
I do not know and what is in our interest is the truth. The few cases with a 3.5% chance of dying, or many with a 3.5% chance of dying?
In a statistics program I used I set the following parameters:
In each close contact the transmission probability is 50% if one is a carrier and the other is not. The life span of the dangerous carrier is 5 days because after 5 days it manifests symptoms and either puts it in the hospital or isolates itself. The time between close contacts is a variable.
So if the time between contacts is about 1 hour on average, then come on in, everyone sticks. That would be if we were unable to understand anything (unless we were intelligent beings), if the state took no measures, etc. I am now increasing this average time and I find that the rate of propagation falls below 1 and so to have a descending sequence, it should take 1/72 hours at least. Practically 1/48 hours or less because we are already sleeping.
I do not see the reason that we have not achieved this with all the measures taken, but it seems there are other factors complicating the situation.
One is the spread of contaminated surfaces and another is the "family cases". Each asymptomatic carrier will live with one family and on average each family has 3 to 4 members. You can not separate the families of asymptomatic carriers, so each of them sticks 3 to 4 by hand.
He can be saved by his family members, but with difficulty. This phenomenon of "family cases" does not mean that control is lost, but it prolongs the situation somewhat.
At the moment we are all in quarantine which of course I adhere to and I also believe that measures to limit the unnecessary traffic of citizens should be made more stringent. Certainly in the first few days between the closure of the shops and the (semi) traffic ban we saw scenes of infinite beauty, on the beaches and on the benches that various types of ten-man bourgeois liked. Now we have the ... plumbing.
So I think the measure should be automated as follows:
With every request for exit they will send us a sms or email code, which we will have to keep with us when we go out, and the police officer who will stop us on the road being able to check the validity of that code, as well as our identity.
The code should be valid for half an hour for simple cases (shopping) and for more hours if we have stated something more serious such as going to hospital.
For employees to have longer codes and of course the police officers themselves to have their own code, which will apply as long as they are in service. The distance from each person's place of residence will also be determined. 500 meters - and for workers on a specific route.
My questions now are:
As of March 31, we have 1200 cases and 45 deaths, ie 3.5%. So since we've been told - since the Chinese era - that the overall mortality rate is 3.5%, it means that at the very least we have at least one hundred more cases waiting to happen. So we are almost unraveling in Greece, or we are probably on a good way to unraveling.
How would I define unraveling? I would argue that we have no virus since the daily outbreaks detected are zero plus a standard 14 day quarantine period (but not for overseas contacts as we all still have a long way to go).
But we are also told that the 1200 cases are the ones recorded in the hospitals and that there are ten out there who are either receiving home treatment or are in an early state. I don't believe this but if I do believe then the mortality rate is 3.5 percent and not 3.5 percent. So coronavirus is just a simple flu, but the specificity is spreading faster than just the flu.
What applies to both?
I do not know and what is in our interest is the truth. The few cases with a 3.5% chance of dying, or many with a 3.5% chance of dying?
In a statistics program I used I set the following parameters:
In each close contact the transmission probability is 50% if one is a carrier and the other is not. The life span of the dangerous carrier is 5 days because after 5 days it manifests symptoms and either puts it in the hospital or isolates itself. The time between close contacts is a variable.
So if the time between contacts is about 1 hour on average, then come on in, everyone sticks. That would be if we were unable to understand anything (unless we were intelligent beings), if the state took no measures, etc. I am now increasing this average time and I find that the rate of propagation falls below 1 and so to have a descending sequence, it should take 1/72 hours at least. Practically 1/48 hours or less because we are already sleeping.
I do not see the reason that we have not achieved this with all the measures taken, but it seems there are other factors complicating the situation.
One is the spread of contaminated surfaces and another is the "family cases". Each asymptomatic carrier will live with one family and on average each family has 3 to 4 members. You can not separate the families of asymptomatic carriers, so each of them sticks 3 to 4 by hand.
He can be saved by his family members, but with difficulty. This phenomenon of "family cases" does not mean that control is lost, but it prolongs the situation somewhat.
