Pandemic and ... # major

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University of Crete: Significant forecast for the end of the pandemic


Two professors from the University of Crete created a model for predicting the evolution of the pandemic in Greece and other European countries.

Their findings, with little margin of error or error as they see fit, are of particular interest, as they relate to the big question and what we all expect: When will the epidemic complete its cycle and return to normalcy?

Professors George Tsironis and George Barbaris, from the Department of Physics of the University of Crete, in their study used as a basis the official data from China, the country where the pandemic started and which now seems to have largely surpassed it, and they combined them with the detailed data that emerge until March 30 in 8 countries.

By studying the evolution of the epidemic and the course of the events in this country, and taking into account that recently European countries have taken similarly strict restrictive measures, scientists assume that if something does not change dramatically or someone does not "intervene" an unpredictable factor , the development will be similar in Europe.

Their analysis predicts the expected number of cases per day and of course the duration of the epidemic in each country separately.

According to the study, Italy and Germany have surpassed the "peak" of the pandemic and from now on the cases will begin to decrease. Greece, like Spain, is expected to reach this stage in the next few days.

The table below shows the situation in which the 8 countries are.

Greece will reach the peak of the cases on April 6, while, according to the model, it will announce daily cases, with a decreasing trend, until May 27, whenever there are no new cases, at least to a significant degree. And if, of course, things remain as they are.

The error rate for this data for our country reaches 9,6%, due to the very small -comparative- number of cases that have been announced.

The last column in the table shows the forecast for the total number of cases. In our country, we are expected to have a total of 3.716 confirmed cases.

Screenshot_20200405-133555_Samsung Internet.jpg


The dates are indicative based on the data of March 30 and according to the scientists, a deviation of a few days is expected.

The development of the pandemic based on the cases in Greece seems to be going "smoothly", while the USA and the United Kingdom seem to be in the phase of the constant increase of the cases.

"In countries such as Greece, where strict restrictive measures were implemented early on, the situation based on the number of cases seems stable and manageable, while in Spain, England and the United States the" peak "is higher," as well as " the proportional number of cases ", the scientists state in their research.

The chart for Greece:

20200405_133826.jpg


Zougla.gr contacted Professor George Tsironis who analyzed the research methodology and the findings.


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Where did the mockery come from, and where will it take us? Interview with epidemiologist Rob Wallace

An interview with Rob Wallace, epidemiologist and author of "Big Farms Make Big Flu" - source: unevenearth.org.

Translation: Dimitris Ioannou

How dangerous is the new colonist?

It depends on where you are on the local spread date of Covid-19: early, at its peak, late? How well does the public health system in your area respond? What is your age; Is your immune system down? What is your state of health? And to ask something unrecognizable: is your immunogenetics (the genetic background of your immune system) aligned with the virus or not?


So all this fuss about the joker is just a fear campaign?

Not at all. At the population level, Covid-19 showed mortality (death rate from confirmed cases) between 2-4% during its outbreak in Wuhan. With the exception of Wuhan, mortality seems to fall to 1% or less, but peaks here and there, as in Italy and the United States. In any case, it shows a variation that does not seem to compare with SARS (10%), nor with the 1918 flu (5-20%), nor with the H5N1 bird flu (60%), nor with the Ebola that 90% arrived. But on the other hand, it certainly far exceeds the seasonal flu of 0,1%. Its danger, however, has to do not only with its mortality, but also with what we call penetration or aggression: the percentage of the world's population that will be infected with the virus.


Can you be more specific?

The global travel network has an unprecedented connectivity in history. Without vaccines or specialized antivirals for this particular coronavirus, and without any herd immunity at this stage, even a mortality rate of 1% carries a significant risk. With an incubation period of up to two weeks and with significant signs of transmission before symptoms appear - before one realizes that they are stuck - very few parts of the planet will be left untouched by the virus. If, for example, Covid-19 recorded 1% mortality on a total of 4 billion carriers, we are talking about 40 million dead. A small percentage of a large number is also a large number.


These are scary numbers for a pathogen that is seemingly minimally contagious.

For sure. And we are just at the beginning of the spread. It is important to understand that many new viruses change behavior during an epidemic. Infection, infectious or both can be reduced. Infection, on the other hand, can be exacerbated by subsequent outbreaks. The first wave of the flu pandemic in the spring of 1918 was relatively mild. But the second and third waves had millions of casualties the following winter.


Some question the severity of the pandemic, arguing that the typical seasonal flu has many more patients but also the dead. What do you say about that?

I will be the first to celebrate if the epidemic turns out to be a "loophole". But trying to underestimate Covid-19 as a potential risk by invoking other deadly diseases, especially the flu, is a rhetorical tactic to discredit global mobilization for the coronary artery.


So you're saying the comparison with seasonal flu is untestable?

Comparing two pathogens at different points in their epidemic curves does not make sense. Yes, seasonal flu infects many millions of people worldwide and kills up to 650.000 people a year, according to the WHO. However, the Covid-19 has just begun its epidemiological journey. And, unlike the flu, we have neither the vaccine nor the herd immunity to delay its spread and protect vulnerable populations.


However, even if the comparison is misleading, both diseases are caused by viruses of the same group, the RNA viruses. Both affect the mouth and throat area, sometimes the lungs, and are also highly contagious.
These are superficial similarities that lose a critical part of the comparison of two pathogens. We know a lot about the dynamics of the flu, but very little about that of Covid-19 which is an equation with many strangers. In fact, a lot of evidence for Covid-19 will remain unclear until the epidemic completes its cycle. At the same time, it is important to understand that the point is not to compare Covid-19 with the flu, but to sum it up. The emergence of multiple infections by pandemics, which will attack populations in combination: this is what should worry us more than anything else.


You have been researching epidemics and their causes for many years. In your book Big Farms Make Big Flu you try to connect the practices of industrial agricultural production, organic farming and viral epidemiology. What are your main findings?

The real danger of any new epidemic is failure or, better yet, deliberate refusal to understand that Covid-19 (and any corresponding virus) is not an isolated incident. The growing incidence of such viruses is closely linked to food production and the profitability of multinational sectors. Anyone who wants to understand why viruses are becoming more and more dangerous should research the industrial agricultural model and especially livestock. At present, few governments, and few scientists, seem determined to do so. Quite the opposite.
When a new epidemic occurs, governments, the media, and even most of the medical establishment, focus on the emergency they face and ignore the structural causes that lead to so many marginal pathogens in the sudden global fame, one after the other. the other one.


Who is blame?

I have already mentioned agricultural production, but there is a bigger picture. Capital is at the forefront of land grabbing in the last virgin forests and in the last small crops on the planet. These investments lead to deforestation and indirectly to the emergence of new diseases. The functional diversity and complexity that these large areas of land represent are "optimized" in such a way that previously limited pathogens are distributed to local herds and human communities. In short, the primary focus of the epidemic must be the centers of world capital: London, New York, Hong Kong, etc.


What diseases does this apply to?

Where we are, there are no pathogens without capital. Even the most remote are affected. Ebola, Zika, coronaviruses, yellow fever, various bird flu, African swine fever are some of the many pathogens that travel from the most remote intraocular to peripheral rings, the cysts, the peripherals global travel network. The journey from Congo bats to Miami vacationers only takes a few weeks.


What role do multinational companies play in this process?

Planet Earth is now a Farm planet, both in terms of biomass and land use. Almost the entire neoliberal venture is organized around supporting the efforts of businesses based in the most advanced industrialized countries to steal the land and resources of the weakest countries. The result is that many of the new pathogens previously restricted by long-standing forest ecosystems have been released, threatening the entire world.


How do agricultural production methods affect this spread?

Capitalistically organized agricultural production that replaces natural ecological systems offers precisely the means by which pathogens evolve their most contagious and infectious phenotypes. We could not design a better system for the development of deadly diseases.


Can you explain that a little bit?

The development of genetic monoculture in domestic animals removes all the immune "fire protection zones" that could slow down the transmission of viruses. In contrast, larger population sizes accelerate transmission. Such high densities suppress immune responses. The high turnover, a requirement of any industrial production, creates a constantly renewed pool of vulnerable groups, which is the fuel for the evolution of infectious toxicity. In other words, the agro-industry is so focused on profitability that the emergence of a virus that can kill a billion people is seen as an acceptable risk.


What!;

These companies can simply outsource the cost of their epidemiologically dangerous business to everyone else. From the animals themselves, to consumers, farmers, local communities and governments. The damage is so extensive that if we could return these costs to the corporate balance sheets, the agricultural industry as we know it would end forever. No company can afford the cost of the damage it causes.


It is widely reported in the media that the place where the colonist started was an "exotic food market" in Wuhan. Is this true?

Yes and no. There is some evidence to support this claim. Tracking of the contacts of the first cases did lead to the Hohan Sea Market in Wuhan, where wild animals were kept.
But how far back and to what extent should the research reach? When exactly did the epidemic really start? When we focus on the Wuhan market, we lose the "wild" agricultural production of the hinterland and its intensified capitalization. Worldwide, and in China, there is a gradual formation of "wild food" as a branch of economic activity. But his relationship with industrial agriculture extends beyond the fact that they share the same safes. As industrial production - pork, poultry, etc. - extends to virgin forest areas, exerts pressure on those who invest in wild food to dig deeper into the forest, increasing the interplay with new pathogens such as Covid-19, and of course their spread.


Covid-19 is not the first virus to develop in China and the government has tried to cover it.

It is true, but it is not Chinese exclusivity. Both the US and Europe have been "zero points" for new flu, such as the recent H5N2 and H5Nx, while their multinationals and neo-colonial representatives have been behind the emergence of Ebola in West Africa and Zika in Brazil. . U.S. public health officials also covered the H1N1 epidemic in 2009 and, more recently, H5N2.


The World Health Organization (WHO) has now declared colonialism a pandemic. Did he do well?

Yes. The danger of such a pathogen is that the health authorities cannot manage the statistical dispersion of risk. We have no idea how the virus will develop. We went through some cases in a local market in global infection within a few weeks. The virus may soon be gone, which is great. But we just don't know! And better preparation improves our chances of stopping the spread of the pathogen.
The WHO declaration is also part of what I call pandemic theater. Many international organizations have disappeared due to inactivity, such as the League of Nations. So, in particular, UN agencies are always very concerned about their importance and relevance, their power and their funding. But this kind of emphasis on action can really help the real preparation and prevention that the world needs to stop the Codiv-19 transmission chain.


The neoliberal restructuring of public health systems has worsened the quality of both research and general patient care, e.g. in hospitals. What difference would it make to a better funded system in the fight against the virus?

There is a terrible but illustrative story of an employee of a medical equipment company who, when he returned home to Miami from China with flu symptoms, did the right thing for his family and community and demanded that the local hospital examine him for Covid. -19, although he was concerned that the minimum coverage he had chosen at Obamacare would not cover the cost of the test. And he was right. He was suddenly charged $ 3.270.
A request from the Americans could be to pass an emergency decree stipulating that, during a pandemic, all medical expenses related to the examination for the specific disease and treatment in case of a positive sample will be paid by the federal government. . Ultimately, we want to encourage people to ask for help, not to hide - and spread the virus - because they can't afford it. The obvious solution is a national health service - sufficiently staffed and equipped for the needs of emergencies involving the entire community - so that such a ridiculous problem as discouraging community cooperation will never arise again.


Once the virus is detected in their home countries, governments react with authoritarian and punitive measures, such as the mandatory quarantine of entire regions and cities. Are such drastic measures justified?

The use of an epidemic after its outbreak to test authoritarian control measures is a derailment of the capitalism of disaster. I would lean in the direction of trust and compassion, which are very important epidemiological variables because, without them, administrations lose the support of the population.
A sense of solidarity and mutual respect is essential to inspiring the cooperation we need to overcome threats of this magnitude together. Self-limitation with the right support - visits from trained neighborhood groups, door-to-door food distribution, special leave and unemployment insurance - can elicit this kind of cooperation, convincing us that we all go through it together.


Conservatives and far-rightists such as the AfD in Germany are spreading false reports of the virus and calling for even more authoritarian measures by their governments: restricting flights and banning immigrants, closing borders and enforcing incarceration.

The ban on travel and the closure of borders are demands by which the radical right wants to give a racial dimension to diseases that are now global. This is obviously nonsense. Now that we're talking, since the virus has spread everywhere, the logical reaction is to strengthen the resilience of public health systems to the point where we don't care who and how many have the infection, because we have the means to treat and cure them. And, of course, to stop seizing people's land because that's what drives them to emigrate and flee, so that pathogens at its source will be prevented.


What changes would be sustainable?

In order to reduce the emergence of new epidemics, the food production model must be drastically changed. Manufacturers' autonomy and a strong public sector can reduce environmental degradation and uncontrolled epidemics. At the local and regional level, introduction of varieties to herds and crops, and strategic restoration of wildlife. Reproduction of edible animals on the premises strengthens the herd's immunity and should be allowed. Connection of fair production with fair circulation. Support of agro-ecological production through aid to support prices and consumer promotion programs. Defending the agro-ecological model against the temptations imposed by the neoliberal economy on individuals and communities and against the state-sponsored repression.


What should we, as socialists, ask for in the face of the growing dynamics of new epidemics?

The agricultural industry as a way of social reproduction must end for the good and only for the good of public health. High-capitalized food production depends on practices that endanger all of humanity, as in the case of living now, which has contributed to the outbreak of a new deadly pandemic.
We must demand the socialization of food systems to prevent the emergence of such dangerous pathogens at its source. We will need to re-adapt food production to the needs of rural communities first. We will require agro-ecological practices that protect the environment and the farmers who cultivate our food. In the big picture, we need to close the metabolic gaps that separate ecology from the financial sphere. In short, we must regain the planet.

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These are the reasons why an autopsy is not performed on the victims of the coronation


There has been a great deal of controversy in recent days with the news that an autopsy is not recommended for people who have died in the country's hospitals after being infected with the coronavirus.

In Crete, this news became known on the occasion of the death and the burial process of the 42-year-old German professor, Andrea Hilbolu from a coronary artery.

Cretapost contacted the president of the Hellenic Forensic Medicine Society, Grigoris Leon, who explained why no autopsy is performed in these cases.

"From the first moment, the Hellenic Forensic Medicine Society issued instructions - taking the instructions of EODY and other states - on how to manage the dead who had contracted coronary heart disease. All the instructions clearly stated that "coronary events should not be autopsied," Mr Leon said.

"There are two main reasons why people who died of coronary heart disease are not autopsied. The first reason is that when we have a confirmed cause of death, no autopsy is required. This is true in any case and not just in cases of coronary heart disease. The second reason, which only concerns coronary events, is that this disease is highly contagious from person to person as well as on surfaces of wood, metal, etc. Most surfaces in morgues are metallic. It is understood that the risk of a medical examiner and staff is very high if there are no appropriate measures, such as uniforms, special ventilation and appropriate tools (such as special suction, etc.). Most of the country's or other European countries' morgues do not have this equipment. That's why the only autopsies that have been done were in China for scientific reasons, with medical examiners taking extreme security measures. "

"Viruses remain in the human body after death"

Another parameter that many do not know, as Mr. Leon explains to us, is that "viruses and germs remain in the human body after death."

In fact, there are many germs that “multiply after death and others that are involved in the decay process. The microbial load carried by the human body carried by a human body two days after death is much greater than the one it had alive ", the president of the Hellenic Forensic Medicine Society emphasizes.

Measures are also needed for the burial process

All precautionary measures in the process of burying the person who died of coronary heart disease are also necessary.

"According to the relevant instructions issued by the coronary artery, it should be treated in general as a particularly infectious disease. That is why the body of a person who has died due to a corona should be transported with a double bag and the burial should be done in a sealed metal coffin. As you can see, this material is not accidental. "Metal is less porous than wood and is much safer," said Leon.

As for the fact that it will take ten years for the exhumation, Mr. Leo points out:

"This is an estimated safety measure because even today studies are being done on how long coronavirus lasts and we don't know exactly," he said, adding that the body inside a metal coffin would be decomposed if properly buried. much earlier than ten years ”.

At the same time, he explains that the burning of the dead is allowed only "if the body is transported with all security measures".

"The low death toll is encouraging"

The president of the Hellenic Forensic Medicine Society, Grigoris Leon, also commented on the course of the coronation in the country, saying that the picture that the country shows is much better compared to other Mediterranean countries.

"We can see this from the number of deaths but also from the number of patients and not so much from the cases as we have chosen as a country - without this meaning that it is wrong - to record only the most serious cases. The number of deaths is the most encouraging element as it is low. However, the number of patients seems to be on the rise and this is a big question mark as everything will depend on the course of events. If we consider that a patient definitely needs respiratory support and may need to be admitted to the ICU. It will show how the phenomenon will evolve but also how much our system will withstand ", Mr. Leon pointed out.

"Greece has an aging population"

The demographics of Greece are something that worries the president of the Hellenic Forensic Medicine Society, Grigoris Leon.

As he characteristically states: "The most worrying thing for our country is that we have an aging population. Most of our population belongs to the vulnerable groups and this is the biggest risk. This is our common feature with Italy. If Greece had not taken the specific measures early, what we see in Italy we would have experienced here as well, perhaps to a much greater extent because Italy had an advanced health system with more ICUs ".

Finally, Mr. Leon gave his own message for "We live at home" saying that "Here individual responsibility comes in combination with collective responsibility. Staying Home regardless of age group saves our neighbor, our fellow human being, our mother, our father, our grandmother and our grandfather. We save our own people. Even we who are healthy, making the choice to stay home is mandatory if we want to be with all our loved ones together the next day. "

source: cretapost.gr
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Why did the West fail, not the East?

Source antapocrisis.gr

April 1 2020

The numbers are known. Yesterday, March 31, Italy, Spain, the United States and France were ranked first in the list of human casualties by the corona. China with 4 dead is in 3.305th place, but based on growth rates, other Western countries will surpass it.

The sad statistics raise a relentless question:

Why did the West fail?

The question becomes even more relentless as the virus is launched from China. The first death in the West is recorded about two months after the first Chinese casualties and the WHO was informed of the new virus. If in China the pandemic was new and sudden, the West had time to prepare.

Epidemiologists and researchers will study the specific causes of this western vulnerability. They will refer to scientific findings, population and epidemiological data, pure medical data, and research results. Non-experts will do well to listen to them.

However, we can note a number of social attitudes, political attitudes and ideological priorities that played their part.

First: The arrogance of the colonialist

In recent decades, mass deaths from epidemics have been a sad privilege of "late" Asia or Africa. Today, advanced Western Europe and the United States are living a painful shock. The developed West, which believes that its economic and technological superiority makes it invulnerable, made wrong calculations. The recommendations of the World Health Organization are a clear indication:

On December 31, 2019, China notified the World Health Organization of 50 cases of pneumonia associated with acute respiratory syndrome but did not belong to the known viruses.

On January 31, a month after he was informed by the Chinese authorities, the WHO accepts that there is a health problem and declares a state of emergency.

Just on March 11, the WHO declares a pandemic, with 4.291 dead. It took two months and ten days for the outbreak of the epidemic in China, and more than a month and a half from the Chinese government's tough measures for such a decision.

The delay, the indifference, the lack of awareness of the situation for the Western leaderships are deafening. The culmination is the normal conduct of the municipal elections in France on March 15, the day 682 deaths were recorded worldwide, 368 of which were in Italy and 101 in Spain.

Reuters revealed today that in early February, the governments of the EU Member States told Brussels that their health systems were ready and that no additional medical equipment was needed. One month later, health systems in Italy and Spain had collapsed, and in France, the Netherlands, Belgium and even Germany they were being tested vigorously.

The colonialist arrogance of the Western elites felt that the epidemic would not hit, or at least not seriously hit, the countries of developed capitalism. This age-old culture sees the "others" as inferior, vulnerable, or even expendable. When it turns out that the virus knows no bounds and does not respect the metropolises of capitalism, there is no longer room for self-criticism, only for blaming the virus as "Chinese", according to the American president's popular statements.

It is obvious that China bought - at a high cost - the time to prepare the rest of the world, and the rest of the world wasted it, as Ian Johnson of the New York Times aptly notes.

It took 800 people dead in Italy to impose the lockdown in the north, which was largely ostensible as industries continued to operate at full capacity. Almost all the big companies used the window of the respective law, getting permission from the competent Prefect to continue their operation without interruption.

In China, in Wuhan, with a population of 11 million, a lodge was imposed after the 30th death toll. Seven days later, traffic was banned across Hubei province of 60 million people. The lockdown was absolute and real.

Even the most fanatical opponents of authoritarian Chinese capitalism can only recognize that in the pandemic, China, although the first to suffer the deadly effects of covid-19, reacted in a more rational and effective way than the arrogant West.

Reactions in South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, and Japan were immediate and immediate. Perhaps because Asian countries were hit harder by the SARS virus in 2002-2003, perhaps because their governments did not move with the arrogance of the disease-prone colonial disease, the epidemic became manageable.

Second: The cult of markets

On January 11, China recorded its first death. The situation is getting out of control so quickly that 12 days later, on January 23, the Chinese government put Uhan in a quarantine.

The epidemic broke out in northern Italy on February 19. The zero patient cannot be found with certainty and it is ultimately proved that there have been multiple sources of entry.

As of Feb. 21, China had already killed 2.345 people. It is clear that the epidemic can develop very quickly and with fatal consequences.

Meanwhile, Milan Fashion Week runs normally from 18 to 24 February, while schools, football matches, commercial and tourist activities continue normally.

It is only on March 8 that Italy enters a state of emergency, although, as noted, this state of emergency does not apply to the large northern industries that continue to congregate workers in the production areas. The Italian Industrialists' Association is protesting against any attempt to shut down unnecessary production activities, even on days when the daily blood tax exceeds 600 people.

In an interview on March 11, Boris Johnson, with his main concern not to disrupt uninterrupted economic operation in the United Kingdom, gave a vivid example of modern eugenics: He warned that many people would die, but at the same time did not announce half a meter for preventing the spread. Schools remained open, as did - and much more - businesses in a neoliberal epidemiological application of "herd theory." Only 10 days later, on March 23, and under strong pressure from the scientific world, measures were taken to limit the spread.

Donald Trump, after seeing that praying with his associates does not prevent the virus, was forced to take action, but said that "the country was not designed to be closed", and that "businesses should be reopened very soon". It is aided by the country's business, industrial and financial complex, which believes that the damage is greater with the closure of the economy than with the uncontrolled spread of the virus. The American president was completely cynical, saying that "we cannot follow a treatment worse than the problem itself."

From one end to the other, in the civilized West, the message is clear: The economy cannot be subordinated to the people, but the people to the economy. Thus, the closure of the economy was hopelessly delayed, when the transmission rates had become exponential. And as criminal as it may seem, opening up the economy prematurely, despite the warnings of experts, is always on the table.

As much as the main reason is that we cannot politicize the pandemic, this criminal delay in measures to limit transmission, a delay that has already crushed Europe's strong health systems, has a moral cause: It is called globalized capitalism.

Third: The privatization of the state

After the devaluation of the risk in order not to disturb the free markets of globalization, after the delay of the measures in order not to slow down the economy, the bankruptcy of neoliberalism followed on a domestic scale.

The health systems could not stand where the epidemic escaped. The treatment system bent under the increased numbers. The number of human casualties is clearly dependent on the possibility of intensive and increased follow-up of seriously ill patients. If the capacity of health systems in such intensive care beds is depleted, the number skyrockets.

The argument of those who devalue the need for a rapid increase in ICU and MAF beds, as well as staff and equipment for intensive monitoring, is that Lombardy could not stand it, with many times better proportions of the care system. This implies that it is not important to strengthen the health system, as a rapid increase in cases is unmanageable anyway. So all that remains is to keep the measures to limit the spread.

It is indeed to be expected that the current capacity of the health system will not be able to withstand the spread of the virus to the community. However, it is not expected that the strong public will not be prepared, funded and executed by the strongest public, as much as possible, even on the eve of the pandemic.

After all, China has not only moved to the level of limiting the spread. He imposed a military quarantine without the slightest laxity. Authorities have reached a point where they will not allow a single person in each household to go out for two days, despite the exit, to buy the essentials.

Western liberals will talk about unprecedented state authoritarianism. They will probably be right. But they forget, or want to forget, that along with authoritarianism, the Chinese state had the ability to impose quarantine while meeting basic necessities of life. State agencies have come to the point of distributing food on the doorstep so that no one can go outside. Could something like this happen in Europe?

The West's weakness was reflected in the inability of its states to intervene effectively, even after the virus spread to the community, in health systems. Protective materials, respirators, equipment, all found exhausted, their supply meteoric, dependent on market availability. Accessibility was quickly depleted, and powerful governments were found to be blocking exports, withholding medical supplies, or requiring production units to produce, for example, respirators.

The largely privatized states of the West have not been able to sharply increase the capacity of health systems. The titanic mobilization to increase the number of beds with the support of seriously ill patients in the shortest possible time required a strong public system that has not eliminated its ability to mobilize all the existing forces of a society.

China has set up 17 hospital units in five days in Wuhan. Of course China is China and the sizes are not comparable. However, this move shows a direction.

It shows a logic.

It seems that it is not enough just to prolong the outbreak of the epidemic over time, and therefore to reduce the height of the disease curve.

You need to increase as much as possible the curve of the capacity of the care system, and especially of that part that can provide intensive monitoring.

This logic could not be followed by a West that for decades has been systematically and consciously weakening public intervention for the benefit of the private sector.

As a result, people in Italy and Spain are dying without the necessary medical and medical support.

We are told not to politicize, but this weakness also has a moral cause: the discrediting of the public, the dominance of the market, the worship of the private, the weakening of the social role of the state.

Fourth: The collectivist spirit

There is no socialism in China, that's for sure.

But there is a legacy of collective responsibility and collectivism. There is a belief - because it is a belief - that only a well-organized, coordinated, disciplined and collective action will be able to bring results.

Speaking about any pro-Chinese suspicions, Gale Christakis, a professor of Chinese medicine, said: "China has a collectivist culture and an authoritarian government that has allowed this huge reaction to take place. It thus has the background to fight a pandemic, as long as it actually uses real information and responds rationally. "

Against the collectivist culture of China, but also beyond the Asian states, which is not only positively due to the socialist past of the first, but also in a negative way to empires and authoritarian regimes of centuries, what has the West to oppose?

The cult of individuality, which while often functions as a smokescreen for the slaughter of social rights, in this case functioned as a challenge, with a liberal sign of the right to profit, to walk, to have fun.

The difficulty of convincing Western societies of immediate measures of social distancing and therefore of delaying the spread was obvious, even if we assume that the measures taken by governments were in the right direction. That was not, or at least was not all.

The West has lagged even even where it is widely believed to have an advantage: in the denial of superstition, in the acceptance of the scientific proposition, in the right speech. It is in the West that the most unscientific views on health defense are flourishing. It is in the West that paradoxes and conspiracies are multiplying every day. It is in the West that the restrictive measures have been challenged, not only for their cunning, unnecessary or "compliant" aspects, but also where they were absolutely necessary from every medical point of view.

It is too early to estimate whether the West's backwardness translates into something, triggers something else, or reveals something third. It is also clear that the West's backwardness does not have the advantage of the East, at least in terms of popular interests and the cause of social liberation. Nor, of course, is any new social model being built by Beijing's hard capitalism - under the red flag. The expediencies of the Chinese regime, after all, at all levels, from managing the epidemic internally to sending aid abroad, are obvious. But these do not erase the harsh question of the failure of the West.

Many claim that the pandemic crisis will change the balance of power in the world. For example, the First World War, or the Suez Crisis, or the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and the Chernobyl accident. The pandemic is ongoing, but its effects will be long-term, including multiple data counts.

In each case, they have seized it, despite obstacles we can scarcely imagine. "
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EK1C4: The new anti-coronary drug that made Tsiodras smile

EK1C4: The new anti-coronary drug that made Tsiodras smile

Source iEidiseis
Friday, 03 April 2020

The EK1C4 practically makes him coronavirus unable to hook to the surface of a healthy cell. Positive results from the experimental stages.

An optimistic announcement was made by the chief infectious disease specialist of EODY Sotiris Tsiodras on Friday afternoon as he referred to the testing of a very promising drug, which is still in the experimental stage, but gives very good results, in China.
According to the distinguished scientist, the first indications are a drug that is much more effective than other treatment options for him. coronavirus.
"Recent results from the Chinese Academy of Sciences show progress, as far as the discovery of a new experimental drug against the coronary artery is concerned. It will be tested to prevent and fight human virus infection. It is much more effective in the experiments that have been done, than all the drugs that are currently available to humanity ", Mr. Tsiodras stressed in his statement.

How does the new drug under consideration work?

Tsiodra's statements, and the relevant investigations in the country where the Pandemic started, concern a fusion inhibitor, EK1C4, which appears to have the ability to prevent human infection with the Covid-19 virus.
The powerful inhibitor targets the so-called protein-tip (due to its shape), which the virus uses to "write" on the surface of a healthy cell in the human body, and with which it infects it.

Therefore, this factor also prevents the initiation of the process of colon proliferation in the human body, the stage that follows the initial infection of healthy cells.

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What the researchers say

A team of experts from Fudan University in Shanghai and the University of China Academy of Sciences, who published the study on March 30 in the journal Cell Research, reports that experiments performed on mice with EK1C4 may indicate that the farm protection against SARS-CoV-2.
EK1C4 was also "very effective against infecting other pseudo-human colonies tested," including SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV, as well as SARSr-CoVs and drastically inhibits the replication of 5 examined human colonies, including SARS-CoV-2 ", the scientists note.
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Kavajim

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Therapeutic protocols:

1) Tocilizumab-Leronlimab:

The above oncological drugs that have been tested and in the treatment of AIDS begin and enter several studies for the treatment of Covid-19 with very good results but so far the number of people in the studies is very small for sure conclusions.
It is a treatment that is mainly applied in the USA.
They are competitors to the Interleukin-6 pathway, which plays a key role in shaping the "storm storm" (CRS), which is the leading cause of death by the corona.
According to experts, an increase in IL-6 is perhaps the most important indicator of a poor prognosis.

2) Giamarellos -suPAR:

Something "similar" in reasoning to the above has begun as a study and Giamarellos with his team that controls the suPAR index. When this is increased, patients can enter the protocol where they receive immunomodulatory biological agents based on the interleukin 1 pathway, and the first results in combination with basic antiviral therapy are very promising.
Based on the data, the increased presence of the above indicator means that patients will become seriously ill.

As it is understood, it is one of the treatments in our country in the form of a research protocol

3) EK1C4 maintenance inhibitor:

This is what Betladen wrote above and seems to be the most likely promising drug for the virus. This targets the protein-tip of the virus, which is the key to the virus opening the membrane of a healthy human cell. By inactivating this key protein, you are somehow preventing the virus from penetrating the cell and thus stopping its proliferation and eventually the disease.
The drug is currently being tested in China and appears to be a huge success, and may be the reason why the Chinese have now eliminated new cases.

4) Antibodies against the corona:

Another attempt to treat the virus with something that seems certain but difficult. In other words, they find people who have been ill and cured, falsify them, receive their antibodies against the virus, and then either multiply them and inject them as medicine, or transfuse the plasma directly to the patients.
This treatment has already started in China, but recently in the USA in an experimental stage.

5) Antiviral therapy:

Classic antifungal drugs, such as Tamiflu, Relenza, do not appear to have a placebo in SARS - Cov2

A) Kaletra: A drug that is given to HIV and has been included in many studies, but the first results are not so encouraging.

B) Remdesivir:
It is an experimental antiviral drug produced by the United States (Gilead) that was initially investigated for its use in Ebola with negative results. It was also used in Sars-Cov and Mers-Cov with positive results and because it did not appear to have human complications, is currently the No. 1 antiviral drug in the world under study.

This drug is administered through protocols in our country ...

c) Fapiravir (Avigan):
It is an anti-Japanese drug (Fujifilm) that is already in production and has been shown to be very effective in treating both Ebola and Mers-Cov. It is a inhibitor of viral RNA polymerase and thus stops the replication of the virus. China was the country that used it the most after Japan.
I read that it is also granted in Turkey for Sars-cov2.
Tsiodras 10 days ago announced an order for the drug from Japan without it being known if it came and if it has entered medical protocols.

6) Chloroquine-Hydroxychloroquine (Plaquenil)

Older anti-malarial drugs are now being used to treat rheumatoid arthritis. A drug that in chronic administration or in large doses can have several side effects, I read that in a few days and with the recommended dosage for the corona it is difficult to create serious side effects.
The issue is the effectiveness of it since many studies show that the drug is key while many others show that it does not have any effect.
However, in several studies, it has been shown that its combination with azithromycin reduces the infection of virus-target cells.

This combination is the basis of the initial treatment in Greece and due to the low price of the formulations, it is also the recommended treatment in many countries, even at home treatment for the sick who do not need hospitalization.

7) Azithromycin (Zithromax)

Antibiotics belonging to macrolides. Compared to Klaricid, it stays in action for a long time due to its long half-life. Although there are quinolones for lower respiratory tract infections, it is a drug with fewer side effects and contraindications and is therefore easier to administer en masse.
Moreover, its combination with hydroxychloroquine has been included in many protocols for the treatment of the disease.

These and many more are the drugs that already exist and are used or researched in protocols and the goal is to officially have one of these to be explored by next fall, in circulation so that we have a significant solution until the vaccine is found. which will be the "final" answer to the virus.

Surely some will get a more hasty approval from the committees to catch up and there will be a real bet between profit and human life ...

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Following is the full text of the interview given by Professor Emmanouil Dermitzakis to APE-MPE and to the journalist Tania E. Mantouvalou

Q: Why do some people get light and some get sick? It seems that every day the data changes and everything we knew yesterday is demolished today. "We see huge differences in clinical symptoms, as well as from country to country. To what extent this is explained by genetic factors is a very open question, "Italian-born geneticist Andrea Ghana of the University of Helsinki, who is leading a major international initiative to collect, analyze and compare DNA samples from patients, told Science. with Covid-19 worldwide. What do you know about this effort and how much will a better understanding of the genetic profile contribute to the efforts to find a cure?

AP: This diversity in the progression of the disease, but also in the symptoms is expected. There are many factors that differentiate between patients, such as the initial viral load that determines how long our immune system has to react, until the symptoms fully develop. As a geneticist, however, I believe that a large percentage of this diversity is a result of the patient's genetic profile combined with the genomic profile of the virus itself. We do not say this by chance, as it is known as hepatitis, AIDS and many other infectious diseases. I am convinced that we will see the same with COVID-19. And that's why I think we need to do genetic studies soon to find genetically susceptible groups, which, although they don't have underlying diseases, have a negative development. As for the initiative of Andreas Ghana, it is still in preparation, but very important and should be coordinated at European or global level.

Q: As for the mode of transmission, the data is constantly changing again. The aerial transmission of the coronary artery was confirmed on Friday by the World Health Organization, and the issue is widely discussed in the relevant bodies. And by extension the subject of the mask.

A: How the virus is transmitted in the air is under investigation and studies that have seen the light of day are early to lead to final decisions and guidelines for the public. No one can be absolute about the spread of the virus in the air, but the measures of social distance and isolation in general, I think, cover the largest percentage of avoiding infection. The debate over whether seemingly healthy people should wear a mask is independent of this latest data, and is more related to two factors: the availability of masks - which is a global issue - and for the population, in addition to health personnel, and its proper use of the mask by the population.

Q: Many views have also been expressed on immunity. What is your knowledge?

AP: It's too early to talk about that. This will be an important part of the research in the coming months, because the levels of immunity on an individual level, but also on the population, will determine the strategy for dealing with the virus until a drug or vaccine is found.

Q: How do you judge the behavior of the virus and what do you foresee for its next moves, directly and in the long run? Will the people's baths be postponed, you say, for this year?

AP: I am moderately optimistic, but there are still risks and there should be no complacency. It is difficult to predict the future, but Greece is doing very well. I believe that in July people will be able to go to the seas more comfortably, and maybe even travel to the islands. But all this if evolution is what we see now. I am always afraid of possible "accidents", where a core of institutions that will come from abroad, will either have a large number of asymptomatic or will give a resurgence of the disease.

Q: When you say baths in July, do you mean that until then we will be in quarantine?

A: If there is a serious reduction in cases and deaths, then we will discuss relaxation measures. From May, I believe that the measures will begin to relax, but gradually with a priority strategy.

Q: How do you see the next day and what role will the tests play in it, in your opinion?

A: It is certain that the tests will play a very important role the next day, perhaps even more important than before. Because on the one hand we should be able to control new outbreaks, and on the other hand we should control the immune levels of the population. (pcr test and antibody test.) The role of molecular tests is to detect cases, isolate them, and their contacts, but also to estimate the number of infected people in the population, some of whom will end up in hospitals and ICUs, about two weeks later. This means that the tests help the health system to prepare, and in the event of a second wave.

Q: Do you think there will be a second wave and when?

A: I hope not. But if there is, when this will happen depends on the susceptibility of the virus to the climatic conditions of Greece. That is, sun, temperature, and dryness: Factors that are negative for most viruses and do not favor their spread.

Q: Do you think that there will be a sufficient test for the next day, given the fact that there was no test for the coronary artery three months ago, and it was only recently created, but also the whole discussion about the issue of shortages?

A: The adequacy of the fastest tests is a big question, because there is a lot of competition worldwide and very little availability. But in a very difficult situation where we do not have the availability of quick tests, there is know-how and infrastructure in Greece, both in diagnostic and research laboratories, to be able to meet this need.

Q: What about mutations? Are there any right now? They may make this virus even more deadly in the future

AP: Obviously the virus also has mutations, the vast majority of which make no difference in the progression of the disease. The good news is that mutations, which make the disease milder, and therefore allow carriers to move, have social contacts, etc., spread more easily, and therefore the most likely scenario, are that the milder strains of the virus will prevail. in the future.

Q: Do you think it's good for people to hear a lot of different opinions from scientists when there's this uncertainty about a virus that we're constantly learning about?

AP: Scientists have a very important role to play in this crisis: to inform, explain the instructions of the authorities, and to educate the public about this new virus. But what must be avoided is to express disagreements publicly and strongly. Scientific disagreements must be expressed in scientific circles and not be a means of promotion in the media. Of course, these disagreements are always welcome and form the basis of the knowledge production process. But we cannot expose non-experts to 5-10 minute interviews on the channels and create confusion and suspicion among the public about the government's measures, which have been taken on the basis of accepted scientific conclusions.
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BetLaden

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New study on coronavirus: Remains in the body even when the patient recovers Scientists warn that this means that additional quarantine is required for patients recovering,

Source in.gr

A new conclusion has been reached by foreign scientists, according to which coronavirus does not disappear from the body as soon as a patient recovers, but remains and is transmitted for several days.

Scientists who have come to this conclusion warn that this means that additional quarantine is required for patients recovering to ensure that they do not further spread the virus.

What the study showed

The study was performed on 16 volunteers from Beijing who presented with the coronavirus infection. Patients were treated at Beijing General Hospital between January 28 and February 9, 2020. Most were men and young (their average age was 35,5 years).

Most patients developed a mild infection with the new coronavirus. However, one patient needed respiratory support and intubation.

After their discharge from the hospital, the patients were quarantined at home. During this time they regularly gave samples to check the progress of their health.

"The most important finding of our study was that coronavirus was detectable in half of them up to 8 days after recovery," said lead researcher Dr Lokesh Sharma, a lecturer at Yale University School of Medicine.

As he explained, "even though they had stopped having symptoms, the corona remained in their body and could be transmitted." In addition, "patients had moderate-severity infection," he added. "Those with a more serious infection may be contagious for longer."

Scientists say that the quarantine will continue after the recovery

"Home quarantine should be extended for patients recovering," said lead researcher Dr Lixin Xie of Beijing General Hospital. "Even if they have mild or moderate symptoms, they should extend their self-isolation for two weeks after their symptoms have disappeared. It's the only way to ensure that the Cronain Covid-19 doesn't infect other people. "

According to the study, patients had symptoms 5 days after their estimated coronavirus infection. The average duration of their symptoms was eight days. However, they were contagious for another one to eight days.

The new study was published in the American Journal of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine

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The OECD sees GDP collapse of up to -35% for Greece

Greece appears to be facing one of the most serious problems in the world due to the large participation of tourism and catering in the economy. What is the scenario based on which the calculations are made.

The restrictive measures implemented by Greece could potentially affect up to -35% of GDP, according to a new OECD report on estimates of the initial immediate impact of shutdown in countries affected by the coronavirus pandemic.

As noted in the analysis, the initial immediate impact of shutdown may be a reduction in the level of production from one-fifth to one-fourth in many economies, with consumer spending potentially reduced by about a third.

He stressed that this is only the initial impact on the level of production and the impact on the annual course of GDP will depend on many factors, including the size and duration of national shutdowns, the extent of reduced demand for goods and services. as well as the speed with which fiscal and monetary policy will begin to pay off.

However, the OECD emphasizes, it is clear that the impact of shutdown will substantially weaken short-term growth prospects.

The OECD analysis uses a scenario that estimates the short-term economic impact of a reduction in activity of more than 50% and up to 100% in various sectors.

For Greece, the potential initial impact of some or all of the shutdown as a percentage of GDP at constant prices is close to -35%, as shown in the relevant chart.

Greece appears to have such a big impact, because tourism, catering and other industries that are particularly hard hit by shutdown seem to be too much involved in shaping Greek GDP.

The OECD analysis states that in countries where travel and tourism are important in shaping GDP, the effects will be more severe.

Source: https://www.euro2day.gr/news/econom...-aep-eos-35-vlepei-gia-thn-ellada-o-oosa.html

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Koronoios: How long does it survive in masks, banknotes

Source iatropedia

Low and moderate temperatures and humidity do not seem to affect the survival of the corona in inanimate objects, which makes it very dangerous, the researchers estimate.

The Covid-19 corona is more resistant to temperature and humidity than previously thought. New experiments reveal that it can survive for days on various surfaces and objects.

These include protective surgical masks and banknotes, the researchers wrote in the medical journal The Lancet.

But the good news is that it's really getting rid of good soap with lukewarm water, household disinfectants and bleach, say scientists from Hong Kong University (HKU).

According to the researchers, in previous research they had recorded that the coronavirus infects various surfaces and objects. In the present study they wanted to investigate its stability. So they began to contaminate various objects with it and expose them to various temperatures and humidity.

Coronaios: Easily destroyed at 70 degrees Celsius

The corona proved to be very stable (resistant) to low temperatures (at 4 degrees Celsius). However, in extreme heat (at 70 degrees Celsius) it was destroyed within 5 minutes.

At the much more normal temperature of 22oC and with a relative humidity of around 65 degrees, the coronae survived comfortably for days. In particular, the research showed that under these conditions the coronaio ceased to be detectable:

After 3 hours on the printer paper and on the tissues
On the 2nd day in the processed wood and fabrics
On the 4th day in glass and banknotes
On the 7th day in plastic and stainless steel

Why should we not touch the surgical masks

However, the finding that researchers consider extremely important for public health is that the coronavirus could be detected on surgical masks (on the outside) even 7 days after infection.

The researchers point out in their article that the viral load was gradually decreasing in the aforementioned objects as the days passed. Especially in the masks, however, there were detectable levels of the corona even on the 7th day. It was just 0,1% of the original viral load with which they had been infected.

"That's exactly why anyone wearing a mask should NEVER touch their mouth and nose," said lead researcher Dr Malik Peiris, a professor of virology at HKU. "We have to put on the masks and remove them by holding them by the mounting rubber bands and not by the central fabric surface. Otherwise, there is a risk that the coronavirus will infect our hands and then we will be infected. "

Soap and disinfectant

Fortunately, even at the most favorable temperatures, good soaping and the use of disinfectants could neutralize coronavirus.

In fact, research has shown that at 22 C C, the corona was destroyed within 5 minutes of soaping or disinfecting with bleach or other suitable disinfectant.

It is noted that the temperature of 22oC is the classic room temperature, even in summer in some air-conditioned areas.

The new findings confirm those of previous research, Dr Peiris said. They also strongly recommend that we thoroughly soap our hands (for at least 20 seconds at a time).

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Official announcement of an experimental vaccine in humans.

The company, based in Maryland, has announced that its Matrix-M supportive immunomodulatory drug can be used in combination with its candidate vaccine, NVX-CoV2373, to boost the immune system's response.

Immunostimulants are mainly used to make it easier for vaccines to elicit a stronger immune response, including the production of antibodies and the even longer duration of protection against viral and bacterial infections.

Novavax announced that the first results for immunogenicity and safety from vaccine testing are expected around July.

Novavax's efforts are being added to the efforts of dozens of other pharmaceutical companies in the race to develop an adequate vaccine or effective antiviral drug against the new coronavirus.

The results of a long-awaited antiviral drug from Gilead Sciences Inc., as well as the already licensed products of Roche Holding and Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc., are expected within the current month.

More than 1 million people have been infected with the coronavirus and 34 patients have died so far, according to Reuters.

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goal2

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There are still 8 days left until the possible date of May 4, when the lifting of prohibition measures will start and the measures that were in force on Holy Week are exactly the same as now. It seems that it is not so unlikely that what some people shouted before is valid. Easter and we called them exaggerated, that the "disobedient" priests and the church bothered them, the epitaphs and the image of Christ on the body of the peasant bothered them and cut off calls for 5.000 € and removed license plates.

Remember the fairy tale of some and especially parrots (I mean journalists)?
"Yes, but IF people gather because the bell will ring? Because the church loudspeakers will be heard? Because the Epitaph will pass? IF, IF, IF? ". Well, let's just say they were right. Now that WORLD WAS BROKEN because Protopsalti was returning with a singer singing, where are all these people to" care about our health "? ask for "prosecutor's intervention"?
94262883_573696556832032_3675061661007347712_n.jpg
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FunBet

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There are still 8 days left until the possible date of May 4, when the lifting of prohibition measures will start and the measures that were in force on Holy Week are exactly the same as now. It seems that it is not so unlikely that what some people shouted before is valid. Easter and we called them exaggerated, that the "disobedient" priests and the church bothered them, the epitaphs and the image of Christ on the body of the peasant bothered them and cut off calls for 5.000 € and removed license plates.

Remember the fairy tale of some and especially parrots (I mean journalists)?
"Yes, but IF people gather because the bell will ring? Because the church loudspeakers will be heard? Because the Epitaph will pass? IF, IF, IF? ". Well, let's just say they were right. Now that WORLD WAS BROKEN because Protopsalti was returning with a singer singing, where are all these people to" care about our health "? ask for "prosecutor's intervention"?
View attachment 28605 View attachment 28606
I have never had good relations with organized religions as a whole. But when the isonomy goes for a walk, I get incredibly annoyed.

During the quarantine, we clearly saw that some social groups had a different and clearly more flexible approach to the state mechanism. I don't care if it was intentional or a product of weakness. To me it's annoying. These images with Protopsaltis, Mitsotakis and the rest of the crowded party, are a joke compared to what we saw in some areas and not a single fine was dropped for the eyes of the people. How many informal places of religious worship of various minorities functioned normally? Police drones did not see the Roma outdoor parties last Sunday (their music was traveling several kilometers away). Let me not mention other, more sensitive issues ... The next time this kind of quarantine is imposed, I am not very sure that it will be treated in the same way by a part of the rest of society. Some may say that the State reacted correctly and took the appropriate measures, but some well-known pathogens and the selective application of the laws may be a bad legacy for the future.

goal2

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I have never had good relations with organized religions as a whole. But when the isonomy goes for a walk, I get incredibly annoyed.

During the quarantine, we clearly saw that some social groups had a different and clearly more flexible approach to the state mechanism. I don't care if it was intentional or a product of weakness. To me it's annoying. These images with Protopsaltis, Mitsotakis and the rest of the crowded party, are a joke compared to what we saw in some areas and not a single fine was dropped for the eyes of the people. How many informal places of religious worship of various minorities functioned normally? Police drones did not see the Roma outdoor parties last Sunday (their music was traveling several kilometers away). Let me not mention other, more sensitive issues ... The next time this kind of quarantine is imposed, I am not very sure that it will be treated in the same way by a part of the rest of society. Some may say that the State reacted correctly and took the appropriate measures, but some well-known pathogens and the selective application of the laws may be a bad legacy for the future.
It has nothing to do with religion. However, if some non-Christian Orthodox comment on this (objectively), I think many of them will agree that the laws were selectively applied this month in several cases.
The specific circus with the truck could be done on the night of Sunday 3 May or Monday 4 May and no one would say anything about equality. For me it was very provocative and as a move (which was even applauded) at the time it happened, when there are still 8 days left in quarantine with blockades and police checks, and every day we have fines of 150 arias and 5 thousand.
I will answer what you are saying, for dealing with a possible next quarantine. I agree with you with the only difference that I am sure that there will be a reaction.
I only hope that we will not see anything unbelievable in the coming months and in the economy, such as cutting all deposits, reducing pensions and salaries to € 300 per month, because then it is certain that not only will there be a reaction but there will be carbines with quarantine. .
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Larry

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I only hope that we will not see anything unbelievable in the coming months and in the economy, such as cutting all deposits, reducing pensions and salaries to € 300 per month, because then it is certain that not only will there be a reaction but there will be carbines with quarantine. .
Reductions in water. Get everyone psychologically ready. They will not fall to the levels you say, but a 10% salary will probably be expected.
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