2023 Oscars Predictions

[gdouvl1984]

Too soon?? Nah... Since odds are already out, it's not too early.

Best Film: Everything indicates that it will be a race for two films with two common traits that the academy loves: a beloved, award-winning director and a film that talks about cinema and Hollywood. I am of course talking about Steven Spielberg's Fabelmans (3,25) and Damien Sazel's Babylon (6.00). In points the first wins, as it is more optimistic and politically correct, while Spielberg has mentioned that it is semi-autobiographical and I think that will count. Babylon on the other hand has an excellent cast. A little further back in my opinion, but with backgrounds to develop into strong cards, are David Russell's Amsterdam (17,00) also with an excellent cast, and Martin McDonough's The banshees of Inisherin (11,00). Cannes awarded Triangle of Sadness (21.00), more and more will emerge along the way, a place in the 8th will certainly find two or more of the huge grossing hits, i.e. Top Gun Maverick (21.00), Everything Everywhere All at Once (9.00) and Black Panther 2 (67.00), but I think the duo will hardly be broken by any of the other two I mentioned.

First male role: Brendan Fraser (1,83) is the early favorite right now with his thrilling comeback as an obese estranged father in Aronofsky's The Whale. However, we have seen the project before with Mickey Rourke and The wrestler, where a good moment in Aronofsky's film did not erase a controversial career. Second favorite is Austin Butler (3,75) from the biography Elvis, but personally I don't think they will award a biography of a singer again so soon, two years after Rami Malek (especially when last year Taron Egerton's superior performance as Elton was not even nominated John). The favorites for best film will certainly be found here (eg Christian Bale (21.00) again for Amsterdam), while Hugh Jackman (9.00) looks to be in the top five for The son (film and performance in same style from the same director as The father and Anthony Hopkins), who say he is in the most mature moment of his career. Anyway, I'll go elsewhere: to Colin Farrell (9,00) for The banshees of Inisherin. A tremendously underrated actor, he has played everything with great success: from adventures to Lanthimos. This year, it's still showing up with great success in: sci-fi drama (After Yang), comic book adaptation (The Batman), true story drama (Thirteen lives), while there's also the snl element I've talked about before in other articles about Oscar. In the episode hosted by his co-star Brendan Gleeson (who is also a favorite in my opinion if he comes in this category and doesn't play the supporting cast), he ran through a couple of skits:

Lead Actress: Here Cate Blanchett (2,75) plays as frontrunner as she plays a real person, female pioneer in her field etc in Tar, so she has all the elements that twitter wants... eh sorry Academy , to get ahead of the race. The usual suspects Viola Davies (6,50), Olivia Colman (7,00), Frances McDormand (26,00) and Michelle Williams (8,00) are back with Woman King. Empire of light, Women talking and The Fabelmans respectively, while Ana de Armas (9,00) as Merlin in Blonde and Naomi Aki (13,00) as Whitney Houston in I just wanna dance with somebody are coming. The last two I believe have a ceiling on participation, as the films are not that great. Personally, I'd like to see either Michelle Yeoh (8,00) from Everything Everywhere All at Once or - first time naked at 62 - Emma Thompson (34,00) from Good Luck to you, Leo Grande. If I were to put money somewhere, however, this would be it to Margot Robbie (6,00) for Babylon. There are some old debts, but this season Robbie will be in three big movies that will logically play at the Oscars (Babylon, Amsterdam, Barbie), and she is in all of the reference points.

These for starters, we will be here to discuss them

 

[Bond]

Cheers to your courage.

 

[gdouvl1984]

At 2,30 the Fabelmans, at 6,00 Colin Farrell

 

[Bond]

Colin Farrell What a nice actor. Bet I have no idea. I don't even know this fablemans. I've only been watching children's movies for a few years now. I'll look for the 6 and if I find it, I'll make a blind bet (with crumbs) of price eneken for your taste!

 

[gdouvl1984]

This is Fabelmans stinking Oscarilla from miles away..

And that The banshees of Inisherin, that looks awesome..

 

[Bond]

You are nice.

 

[gdouvl1984]

The nominations for the Golden Globes are out. Neither the nominations, nor the awards mean anything for the Oscars (after all, the -ridiculous- division of the Globes into awards for Comedy or Musical and Drama, greatly clouds the predictions), but it is the first time that the odds for the Oscars and clears up the landscape. So the nominations of the cinema:

Best motion picture — drama
"Avatar: The Way of Water"
"Elvis"
"The Fabelmans"
"Tar"
"Top Gun: Maverick"


Actress in a motion picture — drama
Cate Blanchett, "Tar"
Olivia Colman, “Empire of Light”
Viola Davis, “The Woman King”
Ana de Armas, "Blonde"
Michelle Williams, "The Fabelmans"

Actor in a motion picture — drama
Austin Butler, "Elvis"
Brendan Fraser, "The Whale"
Hugh Jackman, “The Son”
Bill Nighy, "Living"
Jeremy Pope, “The Inspection”

Best motion picture — musical or comedy
"Babylon"
"The Banshees of Inisherin"
"Everything Everywhere All at Once"
"Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery"
"Triangle of Sadness"

Actress in a motion picture — musical or comedy
Lesley Manville, “Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris”
Margot Robbie, “Babylon”
Anya Taylor-Joy, “The Menu”
Emma Thompson, “Good Luck to You, Leo Grande”
Michelle Yeoh, "Everything Everywhere All at Once"

Actor in a motion picture — musical or comedy
Diego Calva, “Babylon”
Daniel Craig, “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery”
Adam Driver, “White Noise”
Colin Farrell, "The Banshees of Inisherin"
Ralph Fiennes, “The Menu”

Motion picture — animated
“Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio”
“Inu-Oh”
“Marcel the Shell with Shoes On”
"Puss in Boots: The Last Wish"
Turning Red

Motion picture — foreign language
“All Quiet on the Western Front” (Germany)
“Argentina, 1985” (Argentina, US)
"Close" (Belgium)
"Decision to Leave" (South Korea)
“RRR” (Indian)

Supporting actress in a motion picture
Angela Bassett, "Black Panther: Wakanda Forever"
Kerry Condon, "The Banshees of Inisherin"
Jamie Lee Curtis, "Everything Everywhere All at Once"
Dolly de Leon, “Triangle of Sadness”
Carey Mulligan, “She Said”

Supporting actor in a motion picture
Brendan Gleeson, "The Banshees of Inisherin"
Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
Brad Pitt, “Babylon”
Ke Huy Quan, "Everything Everywhere All at Once"
Eddie Redmayne, “The Good Nurse”

Director — motion picture
James Cameron, “Avatar: The Way of Water”
Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert, “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
Baz Luhrman, "Elvis"
Martin McDonagh, "The Banshees of Inisherin"
Steven Spielberg, "The Fabelmans"

Screenplay — motion picture
Todd Field, "Tar"
Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
Martin McDonagh, "The Banshees of Inisherin"
Sarah Polley, “Women Talking”
Steven Spielberg and Tony Kushner, “The Fabelmans”

Original score — motion picture
Carter Burwell, “The Banshees of Inisherin”
Alexandre Desplat, “Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio”
Hildur Guðnadóttir, “Women Talking”
Justin Hurwitz, “Babylon”
John Williams, “The Fabelmans”

Original song — motion picture
“Carolina” by Taylor Swift (“Where the Crawdads Sing”)
“Ciao Papa” by Alexandre Desplat, Roeban Katz, Guillermo del Toro (“Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio”)
“Hold My Hand” by Lady Gaga and Bloodpop (“Top Gun: Maverick”)
“Lift Me Up” by Tems, Ludwig Göransson, Rihanna and Ryan Coogler (“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”)
“Naatu Naatu” by MM Keeravani, Chandrabose (“RRR”)

As for my initial predictions:
- Steven Spielberg's Fabelmans has received all the hype it deserves and - it sounds like - it's a really good movie. If Babylon, which premieres later, does not sweep everything as far as the Oscars and is not a film of mythical proportions, the big Oscar for Fabelmans will hardly be lost. Of course, it has dropped from 3,25 to 2,15, but even there it may have value. And I say maybe, because the fantastic Everything everywhere all at once is coming strong (it is very difficult to give such a prize to such a film, it is difficult for the old academy to appreciate, for example, how much gamata tied into a film a five-minute scene where two rocks talk between the ones with subtitles) and the feminist, twitter-friendly (but mediocre) Tar and Women talking. Again, I think Fabelmans will be awarded here, with a slight caveat to the backlash that Babylon will have.
- Brendan Fraser has dropped to 1,66 and is strongly reminiscent of Mickey Rourke days.... I believe he will have the same fate. In second place at 4,50 now is our bet Colin Farrell for The banshees of Inisherin (snl half) and a little further back Austin Butler as Elvis in the film of the same name (5,00), who comes in strong with a number of awards but ... and the SNL thing (will host the next show, 17/12). The trio is hard to break anyway, the five will close with one of Hugh Jackman, a kid from Fabelmans or some super surprise like the Korean protagonist from the excellent Decision to leave. Essentially, betting Farrell and Butler is like laying Fraser at 2,50, which looks great to me at the moment.
- Cate Blanchett will more or less continue to be the 2,00-2,50 favorite as well as the awards, as she has the avaada of all the woke culture. The five will logically be closed by Viola Davis, Olivia Colman, Michelle Williams and Margot Robbie. I (very much want to) think any of the other four are worth betting on, and I'm going with Margot Robbie for all the reasons I've listed. It is played from 7,00 to 11,00

 

[gdouvl1984]

The Globes were awarded yesterday and I feel very happy - maybe even justified - that The banshees of Inisherin came out as a typically big winner with 3 awards, followed by The Fabelmans and Everything, everywhere, all at once with 2 awards. Below in green, the winners:

Best motion picture — drama
"Avatar: The Way of Water"
"Elvis"
"The Fabelmans"
"Tar"
"Top Gun: Maverick"


Actress in a motion picture — drama
Cate Blanchett, "Tar"
Olivia Colman, “Empire of Light”
Viola Davis, “The Woman King”
Ana de Armas, "Blonde"
Michelle Williams, "The Fabelmans"

Actor in a motion picture — drama
Austin Butler, "Elvis"
Brendan Fraser, "The Whale"
Hugh Jackman, “The Son”
Bill Nighy, "Living"
Jeremy Pope, “The Inspection”

Best motion picture — musical or comedy
"Babylon"
"The Banshees of Inisherin"
"Everything Everywhere All at Once"
"Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery"
"Triangle of Sadness"

Actress in a motion picture — musical or comedy
Lesley Manville, “Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris”
Margot Robbie, “Babylon”
Anya Taylor-Joy, “The Menu”
Emma Thompson, “Good Luck to You, Leo Grande”
Michelle Yeoh, "Everything Everywhere All at Once"

Actor in a motion picture — musical or comedy
Diego Calva, “Babylon”
Daniel Craig, “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery”
Adam Driver, “White Noise”
Colin Farrell, "The Banshees of Inisherin"
Ralph Fiennes, “The Menu”

Motion picture — animated
“Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio”
“Inu-Oh”
“Marcel the Shell with Shoes On”
"Puss in Boots: The Last Wish"
Turning Red

Motion picture — foreign language
“All Quiet on the Western Front” (Germany)
“Argentina, 1985” (Argentina, US)
"Close" (Belgium)
"Decision to Leave" (South Korea)
“RRR” (Indian)

Supporting actress in a motion picture
Angela Bassett, "Black Panther: Wakanda Forever"
Kerry Condon, "The Banshees of Inisherin"
Jamie Lee Curtis, "Everything Everywhere All at Once"
Dolly de Leon, “Triangle of Sadness”
Carey Mulligan, “She Said”

Supporting actor in a motion picture
Brendan Gleeson, "The Banshees of Inisherin"
Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
Brad Pitt, “Babylon”
Ke Huy Quan, "Everything Everywhere All at Once"
Eddie Redmayne, “The Good Nurse”

Director — motion picture
James Cameron, “Avatar: The Way of Water”
Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert, “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
Baz Luhrman, "Elvis"
Martin McDonagh, "The Banshees of Inisherin"
Steven Spielberg, "The Fabelmans"

Screenplay — motion picture
Todd Field, "Tar"
Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
Martin McDonagh, "The Banshees of Inisherin"
Sarah Polley, “Women Talking”
Steven Spielberg and Tony Kushner, “The Fabelmans”

Original score — motion picture
Carter Burwell, “The Banshees of Inisherin”
Alexandre Desplat, “Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio”
Hildur Guðnadóttir, “Women Talking”
Justin Hurwitz, “Babylon”
John Williams, “The Fabelmans”

Original song — motion picture
“Carolina” by Taylor Swift (“Where the Crawdads Sing”)
“Ciao Papa” by Alexandre Desplat, Roeban Katz, Guillermo del Toro (“Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio”)
“Hold My Hand” by Lady Gaga and Bloodpop (“Top Gun: Maverick”)
“Lift Me Up” by Tems, Ludwig Göransson, Rihanna and Ryan Coogler (“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”)
“Naatu Naatu” by MM Keeravani, Chandrabose (“RRR”)

After the announcement of the Nominations for the Globes I wrote:
"Steven Spielberg's Fabelmans has received all the hype it deserves and - it sounds like - is a really good movie. If Babylon, which premieres later, does not sweep everything until the Oscars and is not a movie of mythical proportions, it will hardly be lost the big Oscar for Fabelmans. From 3,25 it has fallen to 2,15 of course, but even there it might have value. And I say maybe, because the fantastic Everything everywhere all at once is coming strong (very difficult to give such an award to such movie, it's hard for the old academy to appreciate e.g. how much fun a five-minute scene where two rocks talk to each other with subtitles) and the feminist, twitter-friendly (but average) Tar and Women talking tied into a movie. Again I believe that Fabelmans will be awarded here, with a slight caveat to the Babylon backlash."
It will hardly be a race for the three films that won more than one award in this category, which is now also reflected in the ratings: Fabelmans (2,00), The Banshees of Inisherin (3.00), Everything, everywhere, all at once ( 3.50). I don't think Spielberg will lose the big Oscar, just like the one for Director. The other two will logically share votes, as they are completely different films, while Fabelmans is a traditional Oscar film, no matter what. In short, if one didn't play the other two at higher odds (11,00 and 9,00 that they gave from the beginning, it's definitely not worth it now. Fabelmans (which we gave early on at 3,25), remains very good bet at 2,00.(In the weird and wtf, romance thriller Bones and All, gives stoiximan 4,00 and green 201,00... I'm just leaving this info here, can't edit it)

I also wrote:
"Brendan Fraser has dropped to 1,66 and is strongly reminiscent of the Mickey Rourke days.... I believe he will have the same fate. In second place at 4,50 now is our bet Colin Farrell for The banshees of Inisherin (half snl) and a little further back Austin Butler as Elvis in the film of the same name (5,00), who comes in strong with several awards but also... the SNL element (he will host the next show, 17/12). The trio hardly to break anyway, the top five will be closed with one of Hugh Jackman, a kid from Fabelmans or some super surprise like the Korean star from the excellent Decision to leave. Basically, betting Farrell and Butler is like laying Fraser at 2,50 .XNUMX, which seems great to me right now."
Butler beat Fraser in the division and Farrell was playing unopposed in his division. Maybe I'm the only one who said I don't see Frazier winning and I seem to be closer than ever to being vindicated. The trio is formed as follows: Fraser (2,20), Farrell (2,75) and Butler (3,50). The manual lay I was talking about doesn't exist that high anymore, so unless someone has already played something, odds are they're going to lose (unless Frazer finally gets the win). The 9,00 I had given for Farrell from the beginning, seems like a dream.

Finally, I wrote:
"Cate Blanchett will more or less continue to be the 2,00-2,50 favorite as well as the awards, as she has the edge of the whole woke culture. The top five will logically be rounded out by Viola Davis, Olivia Colman, Michelle Williams and Margo Robbie. I (very much want to) think any of the other four are worth a bet and I'm going with Margot Robbie for all the reasons I've stated. Played from 7,00 to 11,00."
Here I fell far out, Margo basically lost, logically she won't even be nominated. And here it will hardly be possible for someone else to join the pair of winners of the Spheres. It's a battle of media favorite and fan favorite. Essentially, if Blanchett happens to raise above 2.00 or Geo above 3.00, it must be played on the spot regardless of the outcome.

I look forward to the other categories as well, where I believe he will have many opportunities. Certainly concrete at the moment only the Oscars for directing (for Spielberg), Best Actor (for Ke Hui Quan from Everything Everywhere All at Once, the legendary "half portion" from the second Indiana Jones), Motion Picture ( for Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio) and the technical ones for Avatar 2

Nominations will be announced on 24/1

 

[Bond]

On the way dear Pharrell!

 

[gdouvl1984]

News update:
- The person on whom Cate Blanchett's character in Tar is based had the worst words about how her portrait is sketched in the film... At 1,66 Blanchett, at 2,37 Geo following.. Is it catch up with her up there? I'll think about it some more..
- Elvis' only daughter, Lisa Marie Presley, has died. Is this enough of a fact to subconsciously vote for "Elvis" Austin Butler? Hard, it's still early...
- Banshees of Inisherin became the first favorite (2,37) at the expense of Fabelmans (2,75)... Without any award in between, the only thing that happened is that the voting started for which films will be nominated and probably the Banshees have more current than Fabelmans. Imagine how hot it is, I can't wait for it to come out...
-Of the supporting casts that have been released, I like Kerry Condon's 2,62, but that's about it. I'd go for Jamie Lee Curtis' 9,00 for Everything Everywhere All at Once if Stephanie Hsu wasn't in the same movie and the votes would probably be split..

 

[gdouvl1984]

Yesterday the Film Critics Awards were given and - as expected - they brought the ups and downs again (https://flix.gr/news/critics-choice-awards-2023-winners.html)

- Everything Everywhere All at Once, who swept, turned the situation upside down and is played first favorite with 1,72! Banshees is at 2,75 and Fabelmans... soared to 7,00!! I was worried that Fabelmans might lose here, but seeing Everything Everywhere All at Once also take home the director award from Spielberg, I realized that this particular voting body just liked it too much (after all, the Critics' Choice Awards coincided with the Oscar 15 out of 27 times so far). Oscar voters will hardly award a movie with a scene like this (as funny as I found it, like the whole movie, watch it):

So, I think they give us Fabelmans at 7,00 out of nowhere and I won't be able to (again) bet it!

- Blanchett won and is probably locked in, as are the supporting roles (Juan and Bassett). Fraser also won and shows that he will fight tooth and nail to shake the Aronofsky curse off him (besides seeing him say the line “I need to know I did ONE THING RIGHT WITH MY LIFE!” the way he she says in the trailer below, she might join the list of awards for famous rants like Al Pacino's Scent of a Woman ("I'm in the dark here!!!"), Sean Penn's Dark River ("Is that my daughter ??"), by Daniel Day-Lewis for Blood Will Be Spilled ("I drink your milkshake!!") or by DiCaprio for The Revenant ("AAAAA *bear wrestling sounds* AAAAA")...

Still rooting for Pharrell though...
The Oscar race still has a long way to go and it is expected - out of nowhere - to be full of twists and turns!

 

[gdouvl1984]

Related-irrelevant:
The nominations are out for the Golden Blueberries, which go to S-man. Apparently, the company was forgotten since the returns have not been adjusted. Blonde (8), Good Mourning (7) and Pinocchio (6) received the most nominations for worst movies of the year, followed by Morbius (5), which is favored at 2,25 (there are also films off the list are second-third favorites and that's why I think they were forgotten). The aforementioned films with the most nominations give respectively 15-13-10, recommending very good value bets, as with 1 unit in each, one makes a profit of at least 7 units!
After all, the film with the most nominations has won 25 out of 41 times, and since 2010 (especially when there was no political agenda), it has been verified more than half!

In other news, the BAFTAs buried The Fabelmans with just one nomination (Original Screenplay), while Everthing Everywhere All at Once and The Banshees of Inisherin dominate. And if I was sure about the second (a British film, after all), the many nominations of the first show the universal acceptance it achieved, despite the madness of the case and the execution. The Oscar odds haven't changed, but seeing the stream of Everthing Everywhere All at Once, I'll stick with it for now. I might play Spielberg for Directing if it goes anywhere near 2,50. From the looks of it, it may even remain as a consolation Oscar for the Fabelmans.

 

[gdouvl1984]

Related-irrelevant:
The nominations are out for the Golden Blueberries, which go to S-man. Apparently, the company was forgotten since the returns have not been adjusted. Blonde (8), Good Mourning (7) and Pinocchio (6) received the most nominations for worst movies of the year, followed by Morbius (5), which is favored at 2,25 (there are also films off the list are second-third favorites and that's why I think they were forgotten). The aforementioned films with the most nominations give respectively 15-13-10, recommending very good value bets, as with 1 unit in each, one makes a profit of at least 7 units!
After all, the film with the most nominations has won 25 out of 41 times, and since 2010 (especially when there was no political agenda), it has been verified more than half!

They collected them, whoever was in time, was in time..

 

[gdouvl1984]

The nominations for the Oscars have been announced, the odds have been released and I will not comment on anything else for now. But I will make a personal comment: I was thrilled that Paul Mescal's performance in Aftersun was rewarded - out of nowhere for the predictions - with a nomination. It's a performance, a character, and a movie that touched me personally like few movies have in all my years of watching movies. I highly recommend it to everyone, but know that it is not an easy watch, but it is liberating. I've identified so much that it's like I've been nominated for an Oscar (which is why I'll bet 26,00).

Best Film Award:​

• "None newer than the Western Front"
• "Avatar: The Road of Water"
• "The Spirits of Inisherin"
• "Elvis"
• "Everything"
• "The Fabelmans"
• "Tár"
• "Top Gun: Maverick"
• "The Triangle of Sorrow"
• "Women Talking"

Best Director Award:​

• Martin McDonagh ("The Spirits of Inniserin")
• Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert ("Everything Everything")
• Steven Spielberg ("The Fabelmans")
• Todd Field ("Tár")
• Ruben Östlund ("The Triangle of Sorrow")

Best Actor Award:​

• Austin Butler ("Elvis")
• Colin Farrell ("The Spirits of Inicerin")
• Brendan Fraser ("The Whale")
• Paul Mescal ("Aftersun")
• Bill Nighy ("Living")

First Female Role Award:​

• Cate Blanchett ("Tár")
• Ana de Armas ("Blonde")
• Andrea Riseborough ("To Leslie")
• Michelle Williams ("The Fabelmans")
• Michelle Yeoh ("Everything Everywhere All at Once")

Nominees for the Oscar for best foreign film are the films:​

• "No Younger Than the Western Front" (Germany)
• "Argentina, 1985" (Argentina)
• "Close" (Belgium)
• "EO" (Poland)
• "The Quite Girl" (Ireland)

Supporting Actress Award:​

• Angela Bassett for 'Black Panther: Wakanda Forever'
• Hong Chow, "The Whale"
• Kerry Condon, "The Spirits of Inniserin"
• Jamie Lee Curtis, "Everything Everywhere All at Once"
• Stephanie Hsu, "Everything Everything"

Best Supporting Actor Award:​

• Brendan Gleeson for "The Spirits of Inniserin"
• Brian Tyree Henry, "Causeway"
• Jude Hirsch, "The Fabelmans"
• Barry Keoghan, "The Spirits of Inniserin"
• Mr. Hui Quan, "Everything Everything"

Best Adapted Screenplay

• "No Younger Than the Western Front", screenplay by Edward Berger, Leslie Patterson and Ian Stockel
• "Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery," written by Rian Johnson
• "Living", Screenplay by Kazuo Ishiguro
• "Top Gun: Maverick," Screenplay by Ehren Kruger and Eric Warren Singer and Christopher McQuarrie. Story by Peter Craig and Justin Marks
• "Women Talking," Screenplay by Sarah Polley

Best Original Screenplay​

• "The Spirits of Inniserin", written by Martin McDonagh
• "Everything Everything", Screenplay by Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert
• "The Fabelmans", written by Steven Spielberg and Tony Kushner
• "Tár", Written by Todd Field
• "The Triangle of Sorrow", written by Ruben Östlund

Best Photo

• "None Younger than the Western Front," James Friend
• "Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths," Darius Honji
• "Elvis", Mandy Walker
• "Empire of Light", Roger Deakins
• "Tár", Florian Hoffmeister

Best Feature Documentary Film

• "All That Breathes," Shaunak Sen, Aman Mann and Teddy Leifer
• "All the Beauty and the Bloodshed," Laura Poitras, Howard Gertler, John Lyons, Nan Goldin, and Yonny Golioff
• "Fire of Love", Sara Dosa, Shane Boris and Ina Fichman
• A House Made of Splinters, Simon Lereng Wilmont and Monica Hellström
• "Navalny," Daniel Roher, Odessa Rae, Diane Becker, Melanie Miller, and Shane Boris

Best Documentary Short

• "The Elephant Whisperers", Kartiki Gonsalves and Guneet Monga
• "Haulout", Evgenia Arbugaeva and Maxim Arbugaev
• "How do you count the year?" Jay Rosenblatt
• "The Martha Mitchell Effect," Anne Alvergue and Beth Levison
• "Stranger at the Gate", Joshua Seftel and Conall Jones

Best Editing

• "The Banshees of Inisherin", Mikkel EG Nielsen
• "Elvis," Matt Villa and Jonathan Redmond
• "Everything Everything", Paul Rogers
• "Tar," Monica Wiley
• "Top Gun: Maverick", Eddie Hamilton

Best Original Song

• "Applause" from "Tell It Like a Woman," music and lyrics by Diane Warren
• "Hold My Hand" from "Top Gun: Maverick", Music and lyrics by Lady Gaga and BloodPop
• "Lift Me Up" from "Black Panther: Wakanda Forever", Music by Tems, Rihanna, Ryan Coogler and Ludwig Goransson. Lyrics by Tems and Ryan Coogler
• “Naatu Naatu” from “RRR”, Music by MM Keeravaani, Lyrics by Chandrabose
• "This Is a Life" from Everything Everything Music by Ryan Lott, David Byrne and Mitski. Lyrics by Ryan Lott and David Byrne

Better production planning

• "No Younger Than the Western Front," Production Design: Christian M. Goldbeck; Set decoration: Ernestine Hipper
• "Avatar: The Road of Water", Production Design: Dylan Cole and Ben Procter. Set Decoration: Vanessa Cole
• "Babylon", Production Design: Florencia Martin; Set Decoration: Anthony Carlino
• "Elvis," Production Design: Catherine Martin and Karen Murphy. Set Decoration: Bev Dunn
• "The Fabelmans," Production Design: Rick Carter; Set Decoration: Karen O'Hara

Better visual effects

• "No Younger Than the Western Front", Frank Petzold, Viktor Müller, Markus Frank and Kamil Jafar
• "Avatar: The Road of Water", Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Sheindon and Daniel Barrett
• "The Batman", Dan Lemmon, Russell Earl, Anders Langlands and Dominic Tuohy
• "Black Panther: Wakanda Forever," Geoffrey Baumann, Craig Hammack, R. Christopher White, and Dan Sudick
• "Top Gun: Maverick," Ryan Tudhope, Seth Hill, Bryan Litson and Scott R. Fisher

Best Animated Feature Film

• Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio Guillermo del Toro, Mark Gustafsson, Gary Ungar and Alex Bulkley
• "Marcel the Shell With Shoes On," Dean Fleischer Camp, Elisabeth Holm, Andrew Goldman, Caroline Kaplan, and Paul Mezey
• Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, Joel Crawford and Mark Swift
• "The Sea Beast," Chris Williams and Jed Schlanger
• "Turning Red," Domee Shi and Lindsey Collins

Best Animated Short Film

• "The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse" by Charlie Mackesy and Matthew Freud
• "The Flying Sailor", Amanda Forbis and Wendy Tilby
• "Ice Merchants", João Gonzalez and Bruno Caetano
• My Year of Dicks, Sara Gunnarsdóttir and Pamela Ribon
• "An ostrich told me the world is fake and I think I believe it," Lachlan Pendragon

Better suits

• "Babylon," Mary Zophres
• "Black Panther: Wakanda Forever," Ruth Carter
• "Elvis" by Kathryn Martin
• "Everything everything everywhere everything at once", Shirley Kurata
• "Lady. Harris Goes to Paris', Jenny Beavan

Best Short Film

• "A Irish Goodbye", Tom Berkeley and Ross White
• "Ivalu", Anders Walter and Rebecca Pruzan
• "Le Pupille", Alice Rohrwacher and Alfonso Cuarón
• "Night Ride", Eirik Tveiten and Gaute Lid Larssen
• "The Red Suitcase", Cyrus Neshvad

Better makeup

• "No Younger Than the Western Front", Heike Merker and Linda Eisenhamerová
• "The Batman", Naomi Donne, Mike Marino and Mike Fontaine
• "Black Panther: Wakanda Forever," Camille Friend and Joel Harlow
• "Elvis," Mark Coulier, Jason Baird and Aldo Signoretti
• "The Whale", Adrien Morot, Judy Chin and Anne Marie Bradley

Best Original Score

• "No Younger Than the Western Front", Volker Bertelmann
• "Babylon" by Justin Hurwitz
• "The Banshees of Inisherin," Carter Burwell
• "Everything Everything", Sean Lux
• "The Fabelmans," John Williams

Better Sound

• "No Younger Than the Western Front", Viktor Prášil, Frank Kruse, Markus Stemler, Lars Ginzel and Stefan Korte
• "Avatar: The Road of Water", Julian Howarth, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Dick Bernstein, Christopher Boyes, Gary Summers and Michael Hedges
• "The Batman", Stuart Wilson, William Files, Douglas Murray and Andy Nelson
• "Elvis", David Lee, Wayne Pashley, Andy Nelson and Michael Keller
• "Top Gun: Maverick," Mark Weingarten, James H. Mather, Al Nelson, Chris Burdon, and Mark Taylor

We'll talk about the rest in time.

 

[gdouvl1984]

I think this year I will play in documentaries and short films. I'm betting now before they get sloppy and fall apart. Well:

In the best documentary, the favorite is All the beauty and the bloodshed which tells the story of the opioid scourge in the artistic world and how it was exploited by the pharmaceutical giant that started it (@1,36). HOWEVER... there is also Navalny, the story of the Russian official opposition leader who the Putin regime tried to assassinate... They have a chance to tell Putin and won't they? I don't think so... A unit at 5,50

In best documentary short, the favorite is Elephant Whisperers, the story of an Indian couple who adopt an orphaned baby elephant and its entire upbringing (@2,20). HOWEVER... there is also How do you measure a year?, the home videos of a father who for sixteen years asked his daughter questions like "what do you dream about?", "what do you fear?" etc. and we see the daughter growing up and developing her relationship with him. If Mescal's candidacy has taught us anything, it's that this year the paternal instinct seems very strong among voters. A unit at 4,20


In best short film, the favorite is Le pupille, a Christmas story set in an Italian World War II orphanage (@2,37). HOWEVER... there's also The Red Suitcase, an agonizing little film about an Iranian woman who thinks about going through security at a European airport and worries that she'll be discriminated against because of her headscarf. Iran, women, headscarf... What's more topical? A unit at 4.00

In the best animated short film, the favorite is The boy, the mole, the fox and the horse, a very sweet children's story, based on a popular children's book, family of the Little Prince (@1.33). HOWEVER... there is also My year of dicks, the story of a 15-year-old girl and the men she meets during the time she wants to... lose her virginity. OK, I won't bet on that either, but I think if a bomb goes off, it will go off on this one.

 

[Bond]

Guys, the man gives change. Personally, I can't watch him because I've stopped drinking coffee (caffeine probably). Pressing like on posts that I'm too dizzy to read doesn't work. It would be kind of hypocritical. L;ike to gdouvl though! Way to go, giant.

 

[NASH]

Great analysis, well done gdouvl

 

[zorian]

Let me also leave my "pebble" on this beach. So far I've seen Elvis, Everything, Everywhere.... Tar and Avatar (of the films nominated for best). I got Everything, Everywhere... a long time ago, almost 2 months ago and while I loved the craziness of it, I never expected the academy to get over their complexes and give so many nominations to a movie like this. Pleasant surprise. I think the female lead deserves to compete with Blanchett for a better role, although the latter will probably hardly lose. Although in Tar for most of the film he did not have a difficult role. Basically the beginning of the film (and for quite a long time) I think was quite slow, quite tedious. A large part of the first half of the film could have been cut in the editing, it is already shortened since it is over 2,5 hours and the interest actually starts in the last 1/4 of the film. Anyway, I think only Blanchett's first role is the one that will get something.
I liked Elvis! Film with intense action all the time, very good protagonist, very good Hanks, nice songs, overall a film that is enjoyable to watch. I don't know if Austin Butler will get anything because as said he might lose due to Mr Robot picking it up for Mercury. However, he is very good. I will also watch Aftersun and Inisherin to give a final opinion.
Finally, Avatar is another category. Great sound and a unique 3D experience. It certainly won't get anything other than these technical/technological ones (effects, sound, design) but it's worth going to see it in the cinema.
A few more films are expected to be seen. This week that the snow will close us I will see as many as I can and will update

 

[gdouvl1984]

I will also watch Aftersun and Inisherin to give a final opinion.

I wholeheartedly agree with everything and look forward to your take - especially - on Aftersun

 

[zorian]

I saw Aftersun. Let me explain a little how the matter is. The film is purely experiential. Father and daughter spend their holidays in Turkey. The parents are divorced, the father's income is low, an effort is made for the two to spend a few days together happily. Since I personally do not have such experiences, I cannot say that I identified so much with the protagonist, who deservedly won the nomination.
Very good performances by both Paul Mescal and the little one. No wow performances but worthy and noteworthy. However, I will agree with Giorgos that the film is extremely liberating. Like throwing you into a pool of atonement and coming out clean