The BAFTAs (the British Oscars) came to confirm that there are no favorites for the Oscars. Everything, Everywhere all at once had 10 nominations that had brought her to the front of the Oscar race, but she only got one (editing)! Instead, the German (anti)war film All quiet on the western front swept, winning, among other things, Best Film, Director, Adapted Screenplay (if you're thinking of betting on the 13,00 he's currently giving, let me remind you that it's a Netflix production and the Academy gets pimples when it hears the name of the streaming platform). Elvis' Butler beat out Fraser and Farrell for the first male category, and Blanchett cemented her dominance in the first female category. In the supporting roles, the big favorites (Kwan for male and Bassett for female) were beaten by non-second favorites (Barry Keon won against Brendan Gleeson from Banshees of Inisherin, while Kerry Condon won for the same film) and they throw ashes in our eyes, but I don't want to get involved. The winners in detail:
Best Movie: All Quiet On The Western Front
Directed by: Edward Berger, "All Quiet On The Western Front"
Leading Role: Austin Butler, "Elvis"
First Female Role: Cate Blanchett, "TAR"
Supporting Actor: Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
Second Female Role: Kerry Condon, "The Banshees of Inisherin"
Original Scenario: The Banshees of Inisher
Adapted Scenario: All Quiet On The Western Front
Best British Film: The Banshees of Inisher
Documentary: Navalny
Foreign Language Film: All Quiet On The Western Front
Debut by a British Screenwriter, Director or Producer: Charlotte Wells, "Aftersun"
Best Animated Film: Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio
Photo: All Quiet On The Western Front
Montage: Everything Everywhere All At Once
Music: All Quiet On The Western Front
Sets: Babel
Costumes: Elvis
Makeup & Hairdos: Elvis
Sound: All Quiet On The Western Front
Effects: Avatar: The Way of Water
Casting: Elvis
British Short Animation: The Boy, The Mole, The Fox And The Horse
British Short Film: An Irish Goodbye
Rising star: Ema Maki
I recap my bets (in parentheses where the odds are now and how much I still believe them):
Best Movie: The Fabelmans @3.25 and @7,00 (at 21,00 has fallen at the moment, but I still think there is a much better chance that the Academy will hesitate to award a god-awful sci-fi adventure, a special Irish story, a Netflix movie and a blockbuster sequel than this 21,00 shows ... I wish I had predicted that it would reach such a high yield and waited)
Best Actor: Colin Farrell @6,00 (started at 9.00, I forgot and bumped it to 6,00. Over time and after various awards, Fraser is always favored between 1,50-2,00, while Farrell and Butler follow when each is second and when the other. I think it's really a three-man race and everyone has an equal chance.)
Leading Actress: Margot Robbie @6,00 (it wasn't even nominated, the Academy hated the movie)
Leading Actor: Paul Mescal @26,00 (at 34,00 now, as I explained before, it's an emotional bet, I don't believe it, but if -one in a million comes out I'll be very, very happy).
Documentary: Navalny @5.50 (And here I feel a certain vindication... It's now playing at 2,50, it won the category favorite at the BAFTAs and now I very much believe that its award will be used as a... thumb to Putin)
Short Documentary: How do you measure a year? @4.20 (The favorite has become a little more favorite and the underdog has become a little more underdog, it is given at 5,00 now.. We wait.)
Short Film: The Red Suitcase @4.00 (I strongly believed that the favorite was too salty and ordinary to remain a favorite and indeed another film became a favorite. Of course it was not the one I bet on, it has risen to 5,00, but I am not writing it off yet. We said: Iran, women, headscarf it's a triptych that can carry the statuette!)