2023 Oscars Predictions

[zorian]

I sat down and watched Blonde, mostly because biopics are well acted. Ana de Armas plays quite well the role of the sleazeball and ultimately femme fatale Marilyn. I think Ms. Tarr gives her best in a few parts of the film while Marilyn gives a great performance throughout and maybe deserves more. Of course, because I have also seen the Malaysian Michelle Yeoh in Everything, Everywhere... (I saw these 3 candidates) I think that her performance is the best but I don't think that this award will also go to Everything, Everywhere...
Otherwise, the film, telling the story of Monroe's life, what it does strongly is to show how (in such cases) the system chews you up just fine and in the end spits you out in the wastebasket. And mostly it shows the gray moments of her life

 

[Bond]

Great analysis, well done gdouvl

The type is not played. Even now I sit and read things he wrote before the last time I came in. They don't end!!!!!!

 

[gdouvl1984]

The BAFTAs (the British Oscars) came to confirm that there are no favorites for the Oscars. Everything, Everywhere all at once had 10 nominations that had brought her to the front of the Oscar race, but she only got one (editing)! Instead, the German (anti)war film All quiet on the western front swept, winning, among other things, Best Film, Director, Adapted Screenplay (if you're thinking of betting on the 13,00 he's currently giving, let me remind you that it's a Netflix production and the Academy gets pimples when it hears the name of the streaming platform). Elvis' Butler beat out Fraser and Farrell for the first male category, and Blanchett cemented her dominance in the first female category. In the supporting roles, the big favorites (Kwan for male and Bassett for female) were beaten by non-second favorites (Barry Keon won against Brendan Gleeson from Banshees of Inisherin, while Kerry Condon won for the same film) and they throw ashes in our eyes, but I don't want to get involved. The winners in detail:

Best Movie: All Quiet On The Western Front
Directed by: Edward Berger, "All Quiet On The Western Front"
Leading Role: Austin Butler, "Elvis"
First Female Role: Cate Blanchett, "TAR"
Supporting Actor: Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
Second Female Role: Kerry Condon, "The Banshees of Inisherin"
Original Scenario: The Banshees of Inisher
Adapted Scenario: All Quiet On The Western Front
Best British Film: The Banshees of Inisher
Documentary: Navalny
Foreign Language Film: All Quiet On The Western Front
Debut by a British Screenwriter, Director or Producer: Charlotte Wells, "Aftersun"
Best Animated Film: Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio
Photo: All Quiet On The Western Front
Montage: Everything Everywhere All At Once
Music: All Quiet On The Western Front
Sets: Babel
Costumes: Elvis
Makeup & Hairdos: Elvis
Sound: All Quiet On The Western Front
Effects: Avatar: The Way of Water
Casting: Elvis
British Short Animation: The Boy, The Mole, The Fox And The Horse
British Short Film: An Irish Goodbye
Rising star: Ema Maki

I recap my bets (in parentheses where the odds are now and how much I still believe them):
Best Movie: The Fabelmans @3.25 and @7,00 (at 21,00 has fallen at the moment, but I still think there is a much better chance that the Academy will hesitate to award a god-awful sci-fi adventure, a special Irish story, a Netflix movie and a blockbuster sequel than this 21,00 shows ... I wish I had predicted that it would reach such a high yield and waited)
Best Actor: Colin Farrell @6,00 (started at 9.00, I forgot and bumped it to 6,00. Over time and after various awards, Fraser is always favored between 1,50-2,00, while Farrell and Butler follow when each is second and when the other. I think it's really a three-man race and everyone has an equal chance.)
Leading Actress: Margot Robbie @6,00 (it wasn't even nominated, the Academy hated the movie)
Leading Actor: Paul Mescal @26,00 (at 34,00 now, as I explained before, it's an emotional bet, I don't believe it, but if -one in a million comes out I'll be very, very happy).
Documentary: Navalny @5.50 (And here I feel a certain vindication... It's now playing at 2,50, it won the category favorite at the BAFTAs and now I very much believe that its award will be used as a... thumb to Putin)
Short Documentary: How do you measure a year? @4.20 (The favorite has become a little more favorite and the underdog has become a little more underdog, it is given at 5,00 now.. We wait.)
Short Film: The Red Suitcase @4.00 (I strongly believed that the favorite was too salty and ordinary to remain a favorite and indeed another film became a favorite. Of course it was not the one I bet on, it has risen to 5,00, but I am not writing it off yet. We said: Iran, women, headscarf it's a triptych that can carry the statuette!)

 

[gdouvl1984]

Everything everywhere all at once has swept everything after the BAFTAs (Producers, Directors and Actors awards) and it is only natural that it is played at 1 and something everywhere. I still have hopes that there will be a surprise, maybe not with Fabelmans but with some of the others. However, I still put half a bet on the 34.00 I find. I'm also throwing in a spicy duo of Austin Butler for Oscar and Tom Hanks for Blueberry (both for the same movie, Elvis) for a total of 3.99!
Finally, I also believe Black Panther's 4.00 for original song, since it seems to be the only award this film will get, after the fall of Angela Bassett's favoritism..

 

[zorian]

It's a great movie The Banshees of Inisher. Great performances (at 12,00 the men's second is worth a bet, as is the men's first), amazing scenery, amazing shots. In general, the whole movie keeps you there, from the beginning to the end. Also, I think it's the best script I've seen this year and that's why it's at 1,80

 

[zorian]

It's a very good movie Babel. I think it's more than that Habia una vez... by Tarantino, which deal more or less with the same subject. Excellent performance by Margot Robbie, who also played very well in Amsterdam and I'm really surprised that neither of these 2 movies are nominated (i.e. what else does Top Gun have???) just as the actress is not nominated for either of the 2 roles
Tespa, I'm watching 2-3 more to write my opinion about them too and we're waiting for the award night....

 

[gdouvl1984]

Related-irrelevant:
The nominations are out for the Golden Blueberries, which go to S-man. Apparently, the company was forgotten since the returns have not been adjusted. Blonde (8), Good Mourning (7) and Pinocchio (6) received the most nominations for worst movies of the year, followed by Morbius (5), which is favored at 2,25 (there are also films off the list are second-third favorites and that's why I think they were forgotten). The aforementioned films with the most nominations give respectively 15-13-10, recommending very good value bets, as with 1 unit in each, one makes a profit of at least 7 units!
After all, the film with the most nominations has won 25 out of 41 times, and since 2010 (especially when there was no political agenda), it has been verified more than half!

I'm also throwing in a spicy duo of Austin Butler for Oscar and Tom Hanks for Blueberry (both for the same movie, Elvis) for a total of 3.99!

The golden blackberries were given a while ago and I was vindicated (as if a tradition is starting to be built in this institution, I have it)!
Blonde did win worst picture, continuing the tradition I mentioned earlier and wanting the film with the most nominations to win worst picture. I hope at least one caught the tip at 15,00!
Second male did go to Tom Hanks for Elvis, so my inspiration for a Butler-Hanks best-worst combination has a high chance of being verified.

Let's go for a recap of the stakes and I'll add 1-2 more as a finishing touch:

Best Movie: The Fabelmans @3.25 and @7,00 and @34,00
Leading Role: Colin Farrell @6,00
First Female Role: Margo Robbie @6,00
Leading Role: Paul Mescal @26,00
Worst Movie: Blonde @15.00
Worst Movie: Good morning @13.00
Worst Movie: Pinocchio @10.00
Documentary: Navalny @5.50
Short Documentary: How do you measure a year? @4.20
Short Film: The Red Suitcase @4.00
Elvis Duo (First male role: Austin Butler & Worst Supporting Actor: Tom Hanks) @3.99
Original Song: Black Panther Wakanda forever @4.00
o1,5 total prizes The Banshees of Inisher @3,50


Good luck and have a good viewing tonight!

 

[Kavajim]

I will however play 3 small bets on Colin's 17th, "No Younger" 17th and Banshees 21st.
If this shit gets all the major Oscars, then I'll reconsider my Oscar opinion.

 

[gdouvl1984]

I will however play 3 small bets on Colin's 17th, "No Younger" 17th and Banshees 21st.
If this shit gets all the major Oscars, then I'll reconsider my Oscar opinion.

Nothing Newer is a netflix production, and there is still a fanatical anti-netflix core in the Academy. This means he will play very low on many ballots, meaning a significant rating loss.

 

[gdouvl1984]

Finally, Everything Everywhere all at once swept - as most expected. In my opinion, it swept so much that... it ended up being unfair to the rest of the movies! E.g. banshees of inisherin finally did 0/9 which is unimaginable to me! Also, a little bitterness remains because I saw that Wakanda forever will only get one award (and not the second female), but when I had to choose between the song quartet and the costume quartet, I chose the first one.
Anyway, in the end the thread is considered vindicated for his quick reflexes that earned him his only wins.

Best Movie: The Fabelmans @3.25 and @7,00 and @34,00
Leading Role: Colin Farrell @6,00
First Female Role: Margo Robbie @6,00
Leading Role: Paul Mescal @26,00
Worst Movie: Blonde @15.00
Worst Movie: Good morning @13.00
Worst Movie: Pinocchio @10.00
Documentary: Navalny @5.50
Short Documentary: How do you measure a year? @4.20
Short Film: The Red Suitcase @4.00
Elvis Duo (First male role: Austin Butler & Worst Supporting Actor: Tom Hanks) @3.99
Original Song: Black Panther Wakanda forever @4.00
o1,5 total prizes The Banshees of Inisher @3,50

And time!

 

[Bond]

End of this celebration. In my opinion, this man deservedly won the men's award. Shocking interpretation, with many messages. Second comment I will make about Jamie Lee Curtis the old lady. She deserved it for her overall artistic career. The typewriter is a multifaceted interpretive totem. The comment is purely professional and has nothing to do with my opinion of her as a woman or as a person.

gdouvl thanks for everything. Colin didn't beat us but who cares. And next year!

 

[gdouvl1984]

End of this celebration. In my opinion, this man deservedly won the men's award. Shocking interpretation, with many messages. Second comment I will make about Jamie Lee Curtis the old lady. She deserved it for her overall artistic career. The typewriter is a multifaceted interpretive totem. The comment is purely professional and has nothing to do with my opinion of her as a woman or as a person.

gdouvl thanks for everything. Colin didn't beat us but who cares. And next year!

Honor and glory to Jamie Lee and Curtis!!

 

[Kavajim]

I will not dwell on the faces but on this disgrace that won all the main Oscars.
One of the few films I remember with so many Oscars that no one will remember in a few years. Really, in order to see her until the end, I was patient and every 10 minutes I said, "it's not possible, something else will happen in a while that will make me see her with a different interest"...

All 99/100 people who saw the movie will remember are the vibrators and the sausages. Personally, I have already erased the essence of the film from my recent memory in just 1 month...

Oscar vomit...

 

[Kavajim]

I don't know if I grew up, which is probably why, but every year that goes by, I think that the movies and songs that come out are as if someone wrote them while going to the toilet.
Zero meaning, zero emotions, zero inventiveness, zero timelessness.

I think the movies have given way to the series which are all the money in the last 10+ years...

 

[gdouvl1984]

I don't know if I grew up, which is probably why, but every year that goes by, I think that the movies and songs that come out are as if someone wrote them while going to the toilet.
Zero meaning, zero emotions, zero ingenuity, zero timelessness.

I think the movies have given way to the series which are all the money in the last 10+ years...

That's right.. Zero timelessness! With that perfectly valid observation, I'll close the article - almost - as I started it, with SNL and a skit satirizing just that, how little we remember of the movies and series that came out in the platform era.

 

[zorian]

Having seen almost all the nominated films, I have to say that when there are films like Banshees of Inisherin, Whale, Fabelmans, Babylon, it is impossible to sweep the Oscars this Asian, which as the children mentioned, is not a a film that will remain in anyone's memory.
I don't know what's going on with Asians and what they "owe" them from the academy, but first Parasites, which was a movie, then we had Minari, which didn't say anything and now Ta Panda Ola, with incredible nominations and awards let's talk