How can we predict possession in a football match?

cosmicsports

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30 IOL 2010
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Possession is also a bet and also serves to calculate other things.
Is there a formula that is even approximate to a site that helps?
Sometimes it seems easy. E.g. Olympiacos - Kastoria, if again what percentage will it be? 70; 80;
Other times it is not easy. E.g. Bayern - Barcelona. Although it ended 8-2 in favor of Bayern, I am not sure that Bayern had the possession.
There is something ;
 
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I do not know about a ready-made formula, but I imagine that something like this can be done in evolution, with a lot of work. From a sofascore site you get the data for possession in the matches of the teams you are interested in and then you play with the math. holdings against each team (there will be some separation between home and away logically), divide by the number of games and at the end you add holdings in favor of one team with holdings against the other and divide by 2 to get an average value. And again, these would mean that you have to spend for these processes. For example, Leipzig is a team that wants to have a lot of possession in its games. But what happens when it receives a red card or when it plays with teams? who want that occupation too? Will Nagelsmann go to the knockout today with the same logic or will he give more possession to the opponent to play against?
 
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When I want to calculate something like this, the average will be the last step of the calculation and not the first. What would I do:
I start first with my strongest data, the book performance which, as is well known, rarely falls out. I try to find how much possession a team has depending on the difficulty of the match. For example, let one team say that after removing the rake, we see that it has a 60% chance of winning and a 55% chance of winning. We create our own variable which represents the reason possession / chance of winning. So you will do 55/60 = 0,92. This unit says that for each probability unit there is a 0,92 possession unit. That is, if in the next match you see that the team is playing inside again and has a 65% chance of winning, then the possession will be 65 * 0,92.
Then you will get averages from all the matches to end up somewhere.
 
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Yes, that's how it turns out.
I say go through the ratings. E.g. says 1800-1700. I am not interested in the result but I am looking at the occupation that would be at least 60-40. So little by little a graphic and an approximate curve will come out.
To the right it will have a maximum, e.g. 2000 to 1200 (= Bayern - Apollon Athens) will be the maximum of say 85%. To the left (Apollon Athens - Bayern) will be the minimum, say 20%. Slightly less possession for Bayern when they play away, in Rizoupoli, logically!
But no one can do it already?
But also through book odds maybe. Ace 1.01 is one extreme and double 1.01 is the other.
 
I'm not interested in the result but I'm looking at the possession

You need to collect data and do tests. For me the most reliable is the performance of the book. This reflects the possibilities. But it is almost certain, as I think, that other variables will be needed, such as headquarters.
For example, if 2 teams play, one inside and the other outside with an odds of 2,00 to win, I think the team that plays outside will definitely have less possession than the one that plays inside with an odds of 2,00 again.
 
You need to collect data and do tests. For me the most reliable is the performance of the book. This reflects the possibilities. But it is almost certain, as I think, that other variables will be needed, such as headquarters.
For example, if 2 teams play, one inside and the other outside with an odds of 2,00 to win, I think the team that plays outside will definitely have less possession than the one that plays inside with an odds of 2,00 again.


Yes, we do not say that with Apollon and Bayern.
This formula will help me calculate other things and I do not care about weirdness.
There are quirks. Once Panathinaikos was ahead of AEK 1-0 and played better. But after a dismissal, Panathinaikos could not pass the crossbar. Not even half of the large area - crosses was not enough.
Eventually they came 1-1.
 

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