Betting: Oscars 2020 Predictions

gdouvl1984

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Let's start early this year ... There are some odds and ends to come. In pure cinema, "The Irishman" will hardly get the big prize. They also look locked in for the first male (right) for Joker Phoenix, but also for the second female for Laura Dern (I haven't seen the movie). What remains to be seen is how the academy will handle Netflix this year.

Assuming they try to snoop on the media this year and win the big award for a studio film, 1917 (discussed as a unique cinematic achievement and - admittedly - going away with the Photography Oscars) is very likely to verify its high performance (5.00-7.00). Marriage Story is also on Netflix, while Joker is inappropriate for minors as well as "comic book", so it's a little behind both Scorsese's epic and Sam Mentes' epic.

Phoenix, as we said, has no chance of losing it. In the top five I guess Drewer, De Niro will definitely be in it. From then on, Hopkins will likely be honored with a nomination with Edward Norton.

Of the Irish, the most likely to be a prize are Joe Pace (beats Pacino comfortably) for a B male and Zalian for a scripted script (though I hope and support in this category that the beloved Edward Norton wins the race to win the race) scandalously it doesn't have, even if it's not for acting).

Finally (for the time being), if Hildur Gundnadutir for Joker (also made music for Chernobyl this year) doesn't get Original Music, it would be a big surprise ...

gdouvl1984

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And the season with the Golden Balls begins. At first glance, Robert De Niro's absence is a huge surprise. Otherwise, the other nominations are predictable.

MOVIE THEATER
BEST FILM - COMEDY OR MUSIC
“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood” (Sony)
"Jojo Rabbit" (Fox Searchlight)
"Knives Out" (Lionsgate)
"Rocketman" (Paramount)
"Dolemite Is My Name" (Netflix)
BEST FILM - DRAMA
"The Irishman" (Netflix)
"Marriage Story" (Netflix)
"1917" (Universal)
"The Joker" (Warner Bros.)
"The Two Popes" (Netflix)
BEST FILM - ANIMATION
"Frozen II" (Disney)
"How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World" (Universal)
“Missing Link” (United Artists Releasing)
“Toy Story 4” (Disney)
"The Lion King" (Disney)
FOREIGN FILM
"The Farewell" (A24)
“Pain and Glory” (Sony)
"Portrait of a Lady on Fire" (Pyramide Films)
“Parasite” (CJ Entertainment)
“Les Misérables” (BAC Films, Amazon)
A MEN'S DRAMA
Christian Bale (“Ford v Ferrari”)
Antonio Banderas (“Pain and Glory”)
Adam Driver (“Marriage Story”)
Joaquin Phoenix (“The Joker”)
Jonathan Pryce ("The Two Popes")
A 'WOMEN'S DRAMA
Cynthia Erivo ("Harriet")
Scarlett Johansson (“Marriage Story”)
Saoirse Ronan (“Little Women”)
Charlize Theron ("Bombshell")
Renee Zellweger ("Judy")
A MEN'S COMEDY OR MUSIC
Daniel Craig (“Knives Out”)
Roman Griffin Davis ("Jojo Rabbit")
Leonardo DiCaprio ("Once Upon a Time in Hollywood")
Taron Egerton ("Rocketman")
Eddie Murphy ("Dolemite Is My Name")
FIRST WOMEN - COMEDY OR MUSIC
Awkwafina (“The Farewell”)
Ana de Armas (“Knives Out”)
Cate Blanchett ("Where'd You Go, Bernadette")
Beanie Feldstein (“Booksmart”)
Emma Thompson ("Late Night")
B 'MEN
Tom Hanks (“A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood”)
Anthony Hopkins (“The Two Popes”)
Al Pacino (“The Irishman”)
Joe Pesci (“The Irishman”)
Brad Pitt ("Once Upon a Time in Hollywood")
B 'WOMAN
Kathy Bates (“Richard Jewell”)
Annette Bening (“The Report”)
Laura Dern (“Marriage Story”)
Jennifer Lopez (“Hustlers”)
Margot Robbie (“Bombshell”)
TREATMENT
Bong Joon-ho (“Parasite”)
Sam Mendes ("1917")
Todd Phillips (“”)
Martin Scorsese (“The Irishman”)
Quentin Tarantino ("Once Upon a Time in Hollywood")
SCENARIO
Noah Baumbach (“Marriage Story”)
Bong Joon-ho and Han Jin-won (“Parasite”)
Anthony McCarten ("The Two Popes")
Quentin Tarantino ("Once Upon a Time in Hollywood")
Steven Zaillian (“The Irishman”)
SONG
“Beautiful Ghosts” (“Cats”)
"(I'm Gonna) Love Me Again" ("Rocketman")
"Into the Unknown" ("Frozen II")
"The Spirit" ("The Lion King")
"Stand Up" ("Harriet")
MUSIC
Daniel Pemberton (“Motherless Brooklyn”)
Alexandre Desplat ("Little Women")
Hildur Guðnadóttir (“”)
Thomas Newman (“1917”)
Randy Newman ("Marriage Story")

My predictions are green, given what is being discussed on the internet and the nature of the balls - a bit more "advanced" than the Oscars - ..

PS The tradition of SNL - which wants some of the gesture presenters to frame the statue - can go on with several nominees this year! More likely to be Scarlett Johansson (show next week), but it looks like there will be a nomination for Jennifer Lopez (presented last Saturday. Also, Eddie Murphy might be surprised to be nominated (21 / 12) But it's still too early.
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gdouvl1984

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A 'WOMEN'S DRAMA
Cynthia Erivo ("Harriet")
Scarlett Johansson (“Marriage Story”)
Saoirse Ronan (“Little Women”)
Charlize Theron ("Bombshell")
Renee Zellweger ("Judy")

TREATMENT
Bong Joon-ho (“Parasite”)
Sam Mendes ("1917")
Todd Phillips (“”)
Martin Scorsese (“The Irishman”)
Quentin Tarantino ("Once Upon a Time in Hollywood")



My predictions are green, given what is being discussed on the internet and the nature of the balls - a bit more "advanced" than the Oscars - ..
I'm in the chuck to start betting on the Bullets. On 3,20 Johannesson now (Zelvenger favorites say) and 6,50 on Sam Mentes (fourth favorite behind Scorsese, Jun-Ho and Tarantino !!!). Especially the second one bakes me crazy, as I believe it's closer to Saving Private Ryan has never come out, with Dunkirk (if not better)! Directing and photography should be a favorite without a doubt!

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gdouvl1984

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I'm in the chuck to start betting on the Bullets. On 3,20 Johannesson now (Zelvenger favorites say) and 6,50 on Sam Mentes (fourth favorite behind Scorsese, Jun-Ho and Tarantino !!!). Especially the second one bakes me crazy, as I believe it's closer to Saving Private Ryan has never come out, with Dunkirk (if not better)! Directing and photography should be a favorite without a doubt!

So the Spheres were given and left a bit of bitterness. It's annoying to see surprises happen and ignore them for the sake of more obvious surprises. I believed Ejerton - which gives a similar motif but 10 times better than Malek all remembered - but I was afraid that the votes would not move for a second consecutive year.

But, most frustrating of all: when I saw the trailer for "1917" alone, I said - and publicly - here we are: film, filmmaking and photography. Huge and odds and they scared me ... Let's hope the Oscars hear my instincts better and the performances are comparable.

PS Black Mandet for Netflix ...
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gdouvl1984

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I think Egerton is the only one who can beat Phoenix in the interpretation, though my opinion is that the prize will hardly go back there.
I'm very afraid that it won't even be nominated .. Phoenix, Drawer, DiCaprio, De Niro and the last place will be played between Ejerton, Eddie Murphy and no huge Korean style surprise by Pests or Ayronman ..

Isn't it unfair to make such performances (the guy has been transformed into Elton John from form to voice) but to have just-the-worst-to-me-Malek awards last year and to be a favorite of a similar but much more sinister role? ; The Academy also tells you, "I'm sorry kid, how many such awards ...

PS Whoever I ask, unfortunately, the only thing left to him by the Irishman is his longevity. It will deflate again until February.

PS 2. I expect both and in 1917 the day after tomorrow! (And Tenet in July, but irrelevant ..)

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gdouvl1984

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for me Driver should not be nominated. Well, they owe him something last year, but others (eg DiCaprio) have been banishing them for years until they get what they deserve.
Great chat Christo .. For me and De Niro it's not worth proposing more than Ejerton, let's say, but the Academy has some "rules" let's say. Whether the film is epic, true story or book based, directed by a major auteur, the role is avant-garde, lgbtq, mentally unstable, coming of age, existential crisis etc are much more likely to be proposed. This is how lost and no interpretations like Lupita Nyogo's This Year for Us, Maccabi's Split, Colette's Hereditary, Cho's Searching are lost and incredible (look for that ...)

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gdouvl1984

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Nominations have been announced. For another year, the Academy snubbed potential outsiders who would pay well and make our job difficult. Analytically:

Best Picture:

"Ford v Ferrari"
The Irishman
"Jojo Rabbit"
"The Joker"
"Little Women"
"Marriage Story"
"1917"
"Once Upon a Time in Hollywood"
"Parasite"

Lead Actor:

Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory
Leonardo DiCaprio, "Once Upon a Time in Hollywood"
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Joaquin Phoenix, "The Joker"
Jonathan Pryce, "The Two Popes"

Lead Actress:

Cynthia Erivo, "Harriet"
Scarlett Johansson, "Marriage Story"
Saoirse Ronan, "Little Women"
Charlize Theron, "Bombshell"
Renee Zellweger, "Judy"

Supporting Actor:

Tom Hanks, “A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood”
Anthony Hopkins, "The Two Popes"
Al Pacino, "The Irishman"
Joe Pesci, "The Irishman"
Brad Pitt, "Once Upon a Time in Hollywood"

Supporting Actress:

Kathy Bates, "Richard Jewell"
Laura Dern, "Marriage Story"
Scarlett Johansson, "Jojo Rabbit"
Florence Pugh, "Little Women"
Margot Robbie, "Bombshell"

Director:

Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Todd Phillips, "The Joker"
Sam Mendes, "1917"
Quentin Tarantino, "Once Upon a Time in Hollywood"
Bong Joon Ho, “Parasite”

Animated Feature:

“How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World,” by Dean DeBlois
"I Lost My Body," Jeremy Clapin
"Klaus," Sergio Pablos
"Missing Link," Chris Butler
"Toy Story 4," Josh Cooley

Animated Short:

"Dcera," Daria Kashcheeva
"Hair Love," Matthew A. Cherry
"Kitbull," Rosana Sullivan
"Memorable," Bruno Collet
"Sister," Siqi Song

Adapted Screenplay:

"The Irishman," Steven Zaillian
"Jojo Rabbit," Taika Waititi
"The Joker," Todd Phillips, Scott Silver
"Little Women," Greta Gerwig
"The Two Popes," Anthony McCarten

Original Screenplay:

"Knives Out," Rian Johnson
"Marriage Story," Noah Baumbach
"1917," Sam Mendes and Krysty Wilson-Cairns
"Once Upon a Time in Hollywood," Quentin Tarantino
"Parasite," Bong Joon-ho, Jin Won Han

Cinematography:

"The Irishman," Rodrigo Prieto
"The Joker," Lawrence Sher
"The Lighthouse," Jarin Blaschke
"1917," Roger Deakins
"Once Upon a Time in Hollywood," Robert Richardson






Best Documentary Feature:

"American Factory," Julia Rieichert, Steven Bognar
"The Cave," Feras Fayyad
"The Edge of Democracy," Petra Costa
"For Sama," Waad Al-Kateab, Edward Watts
"Honeyland," Tamara Kotevska, Ljubo Stefanov

Best Documentary Short Subject:

"In the Absence," Yi Seung-Jun and Gary Byung-Seok Kam
"Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone," Carol Dysinger
"Life Overtakes Me," by Kristine Samuelson and John Haptas
“St. Louis Superman, ”Smriti Mundhra and Sami Khan
"Walk Run Cha-Cha," Laura Nix

Best Live Action Short Film:

"Brotherhood," Mary Joobeur
"Oil Club Football," Yves Piat
"The Neighbors' Window," Marshall Curry
"Saria," Bryan Buckley
"A Sister," Delphine Girard

Best International Feature Film:

"Corpus Christi," Jan Komasa
"Honeyland," Tamara Kotevska, Ljubo Stefanov
"Les Miserables," Ladj Ly
"Pain and Glory," Pedro Almodovar
"Parasite," Bong Joon Ho

Film Editing:

"Ford v Ferrari," Michael McCusker, Andrew Buckland
"The Irishman," Thelma Schoonmaker
"Jojo Rabbit," Tom Eagles
"The Joker," Jeff Groth
"Parasite," Jinmo Yang

Sound Editing:

"Ford v Ferrari," Don Sylvester
"The Joker," Alan Robert Murray
"1917," Oliver Tarney, Rachel Tate
"Once Upon a Time in Hollywood," Wylie Stateman
"Star Wars: The Rise of SkyWalker," Matthew Wood, David Acord

Sound Mixing:

"Ad Astra"
"Ford v Ferrari"
"The Joker"
"1917"
"Once Upon a Time in Hollywood"

Production Design:

"The Irishman," Bob Shaw and Regina Graves
"Jojo Rabbit," Ra Vincent and Nora Sopkova
"1917," Dennis Gassner and Lee Sandales
"Once Upon a Time in Hollywood," Barbara Ling and Nancy Haigh
"Parasite," Lee Ha-Jun and Cho Won Woo, Han Ga Ram, and Cho Hee

Original Score:

"The Joker," Hildur Guðnadóttir
"Little Women," by Alexandre Desplat
"Marriage Story," Randy Newman
"1917," Thomas Newman
"Star Wars: The Rise of the Skywalker," John Williams






Original Song:

"I Can't Let You Throw Yourself Away," "Toy Story 4"
"I'm Gonna Love Me Again," "Rocketman"
"I'm Standing With You," "Breakthrough"
"Into the Unknown," "Frozen 2"
"Stand Up," "Harriet"

Makeup and Hair:

"Bombshell"
"The Joker"
"Judy"
“Maleficent: Mistress of Evil”
"1917"

Costume Design:

"The Irishman," Sandy Powell, Christopher Peterson
"Jojo Rabbit," Mayes C. Rubeo
"The Joker," Mark Bridges
"Little Women," Jacqueline Durran
"Once Upon a Time in Hollywood," Arianne Phillips

Visual Effects:

"Avengers Endgame"
The Irishman
"1917"
"The Lion King"
"Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker"

gdouvl1984

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I've seen Joker, Irish, 1917. I would definitely like to see Parasite, Tarantino, Marriage Story and Bombshell anyway and I think I need something else to come to a safe conclusion. However, our view of the College has shown that it is absurd.
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Ertzan

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I saw Irish, I didn't go crazy it's the truth, I saw Ford vs Ferrari very nice movie I liked is the truth. But okay I can't say wow

zorian

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Parasite is very good and I think foreign language has it in my pocket. I've seen Joker, Irish, Marriage story, Tarantino, Almodovar. The series has the 2 popes, 1917, jojo rabbit
However, the marriage story doesn't tell me anything special, Deren probably Johansson if he gets it. Neither the script has anything of value, nor does Dravier have any particular acting. Phoenix logically and maybe Badera who likes him. After letting the rocket roll out ...
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gdouvl1984

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Parasite is very good and I think foreign language has it in my pocket. I've seen Joker, Irish, Marriage story, Tarantino, Almodovar. The series has the 2 popes, 1917, jojo rabbit
However, the marriage story doesn't tell me anything special, Deren probably Johansson if he gets it. Neither the script has anything of value, nor does Dravier have any particular acting. Phoenix logically and maybe Badera who likes him. After letting the rocket roll out ...
Christ, Rocketman Taron Ejerton may be justified in Bafta, English garr. It has become a thing of the past to award a Brit that was not nominated for an Oscar. In a rough study, I found Hugh Grant for "Four Marriages and a Funeral" in 1994, which was the year of Forrest Gabb, and Jamie "Billy Eliot" Bell in 2001, which was the year of the Gladiator. Releases at 7,50 ..

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gdouvl1984

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Parasite is playing for the big Oscar, so in that case Pedro will play hard in the foreign language. I say now
A movie that has been nominated for a foreign language (or animation) and a better movie at the same time, has never lost its category, whether it got or didn't get the best movie. Maybe the format of voting for the big Oscars is relevant, maybe not.

PS In the first odds on the youngest prizes, I see a delicious 11th ..

zorian

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I'm very afraid that it won't even be nominated .. Phoenix, Drawer, DiCaprio, De Niro and the last place will be played between Ejerton, Eddie Murphy and no huge Korean style surprise by Pests or Ayronman ..
Finally neither De Niro nor any of Ejerton and Murphy's very good interpretations. Banderas and Price (both Pope) complete the 5th.

zorian

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Great chat Christo .. For me and De Niro it's not worth proposing more than Ejerton, let's say, but the Academy has some "rules" let's say. Whether the film is epic, true story or book based, directed by a major auteur, the role is avant-garde, lgbtq, mentally unstable, coming of age, existential crisis etc are much more likely to be proposed. This is how lost and no interpretations like Lupita Nyogo's This Year for Us, Maccabi's Split, Colette's Hereditary, Cho's Searching are lost and incredible (look for that ...)

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Both Dafoe and Pattinson are indispensable to the Lighthouse (and left them out). I just saw it, black, dark and crazy. Much better performances by several role candidates.
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gdouvl1984

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Both Dafoe and Pattinson are indispensable to the Lighthouse (and left them out). I just saw it, black, dark and crazy. Much better performances by several role candidates.
But it is a thriller ... The Academy does not see these unfortunately .. After recommending it for Photography, well again. I'm very scared that Defoe will ever get a consolation Oscar for a boring role, like Jeff Bridges and Gary Oldman

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