Betting - are the odds of the points telling us the truth?

cosmicsports

Well-Known Member
30 IOL 2010
3,476
1,301
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The odds of points in football are given each time.
Whatever they say we will be paid.
But are they telling us the truth about the market?

I will refer to the case of an emblematic patratrak of last season.
It's Chelsea - West Bromwich Albion 2-5.
This was done as it was but the initial odds were 1.27-5.92-12.93, from what I see in prehistory.
This means that 7.5% of the game was in Albion's double.

But is this happening?
Who will play double Albion and why?
It was not the phase where some sly thought could lead you to the double. Chelsea with Tuhel were going wild and wanted the victory to secure fourth place in the Premier League leading to the Champions League - because winning the cup was not guaranteed at all.
Do you see for some systemic reasons that 7.5% of the money was played in the double?
Maybe the real was 3% and of course the book 25 does not pay us, which corresponds to 3%. They pay us 12.93 - as long as we booked.

Again, I'm not saying Albion had a 3% chance of winning. It was 7.5%, as far as performance is concerned - I have no objection.
But who will play it?

How did it happen now?
Chelsea was ahead 1-0 and everything was pointing towards a quiet afternoon at Stamford Bridge.
But it becomes stupid and Thiago Silva is sent off with two yellow cards.
Then in the 45th minute Albion equalizes with a goal from the cross, type Scotland-Czech Republic.
In the delays of the half, it becomes 1-2 in one half.
In the second half, Chelsea has to play full attack as it is left with 10 and eats three more counter-attacks.
 

defectus

New Member
21 Ion 2021
20
17
3
The pre-game odds come out via odds compiler. Algorithmic (among other things) systems that depending on the data put by the managers of each serious company (I'm not talking about novice), where this data is in a small form, ranking in the rating , team value, and to a greater extent exogenous factors, such as injury of the best player of the team, the fact that the team plays Tuesday night 2nd match for the qualifiers of the slug so in Sunday's game, probably the coach will rest some key players etc etc .

Of course, more serious statistics that are not public information (xGoals, etc) also play a role and the average person cannot understand them and draw conclusions from this data.
But if you enter these elements in specific algorithmic software you will get a fine result.

After that and this mainly concerns the smaller companies, but also all more or less, comes the trend of the betting market.

You know very well who is guiding the trend of the points, with the result that the others follow (late) without it being clear why there is such a tendency in the average bettor. MaxBets may be repeated in the early lines at one point, it may be a team news that erupted at the last minute and changed everything, it could be inside info, it could be manipulation, it could be a thousand things.
But guesswork does not work and therefore if you do not know something, you just do not know it. End of story.

Cosmic obviously knows all this and much more of course, since he has a lot more experience than me and most of the people in here, I just put them in order to exist.

Now for the 12.93 of Albion (we are talking about pre-game) if in all the companies or in the driving companies it played from 11.5-13 then this is the fair performance and I do not think it was for 25 let's say.
All bucks look to get away from nowhere.
If the real odds for something like this are 25 as you guess, then you should stay away from the bet since the book gives it at 13 (for you it is not valium so you go below), but how do you know that you are right and the correct odds is indeed 25 and that all the other books are wrong and give it to 13?
Now if you mean that they "show" the 25 odds, 13 so as not to pay those who will win their regular bet (that is, knowingly give them a odds worth 25 -> 13 I do not think this is true because then they will have wrong in the odds of 1 and X (it will be much more than the right, and they will eat hits).
In your specific example, as you said, Chelsea was ahead 1-0 and everything went smoothly (ie the 1.08 that would give Chelsea a pre-game was correct, so the 13 in Albion) and then came an unexpected and incalculable factor as it is the red for Silva.
Then, again unexpectedly, he scored 2 goals in 10 minutes (for no reason, since this is how football is, and in this it differs from other sports, it can literally happen, WHATEVER YES).
Then, Chelsea played all-attack as you said, so either the match would turn it around or Albion would crush it in the counterattacks with its 1 extra player. It became the 2nd in the end and came out 13, but it did not come out at all easily and above all it did not come out as easily as the score shows ...

He looked at how many factors (which lie in luck) had to appear to give this result.

The job of the bookies is to get fair odds to guard their ass in case what happened in this match. In a match literally anything can happen ... but the bites must give the right odds for each match separately so that in the longterm they get their profit without paying much for their mistakes.

Sorry if I got tired.
 

cosmicsports

Well-Known Member
30 IOL 2010
3,476
1,301
113
The pre-game odds come out via odds compiler. Algorithmic (among other things) systems that depending on the data put by the managers of each serious company (I'm not talking about novice), where this data is in a small form, ranking in the rating , team value, and to a greater extent exogenous factors, such as injury of the best player of the team, the fact that the team plays Tuesday night 2nd match for the qualifiers of the slug so in Sunday's game, probably the coach will rest some key players etc etc .

Of course, more serious statistics that are not public information (xGoals, etc) also play a role and the average person cannot understand them and draw conclusions from this data.
But if you enter these elements in specific algorithmic software you will get a fine result.

After that and this mainly concerns the smaller companies, but also all more or less, comes the trend of the betting market.

You know very well who is guiding the trend of the points, with the result that the others follow (late) without it being clear why there is such a tendency in the average bettor. MaxBets may be repeated in the early lines at one point, it may be a team news that erupted at the last minute and changed everything, it could be inside info, it could be manipulation, it could be a thousand things.
But guesswork does not work and therefore if you do not know something, you just do not know it. End of story.

Cosmic obviously knows all this and much more of course, since he has a lot more experience than me and most of the people in here, I just put them in order to exist.

Now for the 12.93 of Albion (we are talking about pre-game) if in all the companies or in the driving companies it played from 11.5-13 then this is the fair performance and I do not think it was for 25 let's say.
All bucks look to get away from nowhere.
If the real odds for something like this are 25 as you guess, then you should stay away from the bet since the book gives it at 13 (for you it is not valium so you go below), but how do you know that you are right and the correct odds is indeed 25 and that all the other books are wrong and give it to 13?
Now if you mean that they "show" the 25 odds, 13 so as not to pay those who will win their regular bet (that is, knowingly give them a odds worth 25 -> 13 I do not think this is true because then they will have wrong in the odds of 1 and X (it will be much more than the right, and they will eat hits).
In your specific example, as you said, Chelsea was ahead 1-0 and everything went smoothly (ie the 1.08 that would give Chelsea a pre-game was correct, so the 13 in Albion) and then came an unexpected and incalculable factor as it is the red for Silva.
Then, again unexpectedly, he scored 2 goals in 10 minutes (for no reason, since this is how football is, and in this it differs from other sports, it can literally happen, WHATEVER YES).
Then, Chelsea played all-attack as you said, so either the match would turn it around or Albion would crush it in the counterattacks with its 1 extra player. It became the 2nd in the end and came out 13, but it did not come out at all easily and above all it did not come out as easily as the score shows ...

He looked at how many factors (which lie in luck) had to appear to give this result.

The job of the bookies is to get fair odds to guard their ass in case what happened in this match. In a match literally anything can happen ... but the bites must give the right odds for each match separately so that in the longterm they get their profit without paying much for their mistakes.

Sorry if I got tired.

I am not saying that they miscalculated based on form, administration, etc. or that they did not give good returns.
I ask if you see it was finally covered the point by 7.5% or was it covered by 3.5%?
In the final fund of betting companies that is.
 

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