Answer: Betting with 3,00 and 50% success
I would like to hear some opinions on the continuation of the best case scenario and worst case scenario
Because the best and worst case scenario is obvious I'll tell you what the
identical and equivocalscenario.
If the average fair value is
3, then:
the probability of getting out at least
50 successful to you
100 fights it is
1 on 2400, that is, to the extent that:
the probability of getting out at least
203 successful to you
500 races
the probability of getting out at least
384 successful to you
1000 races
If the average fair value is
2.9, then:
the probability of getting out at least
50 successful to you
100 fights it is
1 on 970, that is, to the extent that:
the probability of getting out at least
206 successful to you
500 races
the probability of getting out at least
392 successful to you
1000 races
If the average fair value is
2.8, then:
the probability of getting out at least
50 successful to you
100 fights it is
1 on 440, that is, to the extent that:
the probability of getting out at least
210 successful to you
500 races
the probability of getting out at least
401 successful to you
1000 races
Finally, if the average fair value is
2.5, then:
the probability of getting out at least
50 successful to you
100 fights it is
1 on 40, that is, to the extent that:
the probability of getting out at least
222 successful to you
500 races
the probability of getting out at least
432 successful to you
1000 races
Don't get it wrong: As you all rightly said, you want more games to draw conclusions.