The product of performance on the likelihood of occurrence gives the average refund, which can be negative.Theoretically, when you multiply the probability of a race coming up with less performance
Risk is if the number is higher and the yield of 1,55 is more risk because it is smaller
the number is 1.2865 that's what the theory says.
Eg 60% chance of performance 2,00 = 1,20 = For every euro, I win 20 minutes.
50% chance of return 1,80 = 0,90 = For every euro, I lose 10 minutes.
It has nothing to do with the likelihood of occurrence.