Answer: query for value bets
Good for you.
Since we've been discussing value bets I'd also like to say a few things from my short experience (playing less than 5 years bet) and if anything seems to be useful, it's good.
First, when I first read about
value bets I thought it was another nonsense (or at best, a myth) from these nonsense written about betting to make it look science. But that's not the case. Value betting exists, but this concept is not simple in either conception or execution.
I will speak in practice so as not to get tired.
1. The first is chances. You will treat every match in which you bet as if it were a pre-event event such as throwing a dice. You tell me that a football match can't be that way because its outcome is determined by one set of parameters. I didn't say it was like that, I said you should do it. Why;
Because at the end of the season you will have played 100 or 200 bets and some of them will pass. So you should have already figured out in advance how many of the 100 or 200 will spend setting each chance bet.
Example. Watch the Premier League closely and play Southampton and Burnley. If you intend to deal with the match, you should be able to give a "set of chances". Example: 1-X-2: 40-30-30. This is done with the help of the knowledge of the teams, the form of behavior inside-outside the form inside-outside absences of delivery, motivation, fatigue, etc. A check (again!) Parameters. Every player must slowly learn to do these on his own, but again, it is subjective. If after all this, in this particular match you are able to give a set of odds, go below. If you are not, then you do not have to deal with the match.
There are also exceptions to the rule, where no one has a picture of probability, but a Buk performance is extreme. like yesterday's 1 Superligaen match where in Copenhagen - Horsens the double gave 9.00 and fairplay (to me the best player I've ever met) bursts his will for the double. But, as you say, 1h Racing, what are your chances? But as if it's not even I, I know, but Boukis doesn't know either. Anyway. In many games, one cannot do probability estimation.
Another example, the World. Why in the World I personally didn't throw almost Euro at all? Because I don't have the championship match sequence so I have a place for the chances of the teams. I couldn't stand the odds. I folded. Others played, and hello with joy.
Not to get tired, if you don't have a place for the team chances, let alone. No bet. But if you have a picture, go to 2.
2. Where do you play? You're costing double the 30%, that is, about 3.30. Where will you play? You will obviously play if Boukis gives you the above, but the critical question is HOW MUCH MORE?
At 3.35; At 3.40; At 3.50; At 4.00; Where? How much "pillow" do you want? For me this step is the most important step in choosing a bet. The airbag. Why? I will tell you why.
Because when you estimate the probability of a double 30%,
Are you sure that it is so; Answer: No. it is not a dice. It's football. It may be less, so if you buy at 3.40, you have not played well in the end. Even if 3.30 is the double (second argument), if you play at 3.40 the negative fluctuation will "swallow" you and you will be late to understand that your strategy is the right one. If you play the real 3.30 at 3.40 you will be late to look profitable. Third reason: by asking for a bigger pillow, you find it even harder to play a bet and you end up playing fewer bets, protecting your wine cellar from pointless bets.
Each of us chooses the "pillow" he wants. I here would like somewhere 4.20.
And here's your copy / paste of Southampton-Burnley last year
sans voir:
Here's a look at all the reasoning I wrote to you in practice:
The bigger the error you have in a performance that is offered to you, the greater the margin you have to fall out of your appreciation for the fair performance, without your bet stopping being worth. Sounds a little confused. Let's go to the example:
Southampton (1.65) - Burnley (6.50)
We have a team that has only one defeat in the last 10 matches regardless of the organization (the one with the City, which is obviously "forgiven" as it is in the City this year).
We have a team that in places like Chelsea (2-3), Liverpool (1-1), Tottenham Hotspur (1-1) and Everton (0-1) have not lost or even won.
We have a team now in Southampton with the home team just having 2 wins in 6 matches.
And with all this data, they give us the 1.65 ace and the double 6.50. This seems completely wrong I would with all this data give the 2.50 ace and the double 3.50. Am I wrong? Not at all unlikely, but let's go back to what we were saying before: how much longer have I been wrong? And for 4.00 to be double even for ... 5.00 (we say now ...) and not 3.50 as I estimate, the bet still holds:
Southampton - Burnley 2 @ 6.50 (Bet365)
With such a pillow how much more am I wrong?
This is how value betting is for me.
Schematic: 100 Match Candidates, I play (on and off) 10, and eventually pass eg. 2
Disagreement, anthology, chatting, all welcome