query for value bets

Answer: query for value bets

stxma this is not what I'm looking for but I thank you for your effort to help
cosmicsports ask your friend to go or try it or give it to a friend who has time to try it out (even if you bet virtually without money) It is a shame to make something bother and to stay untapped.

I'll look at putting a concluding thread here.
Premier I put it I say.
 
Answer: query for value bets

That says anything? 1x2 odds.jpg
 
Answer: query for value bets

Good for you.

Since we've been discussing value bets I'd also like to say a few things from my short experience (playing less than 5 years bet) and if anything seems to be useful, it's good.

First, when I first read about value bets I thought it was another nonsense (or at best, a myth) from these nonsense written about betting to make it look science. But that's not the case. Value betting exists, but this concept is not simple in either conception or execution.

I will speak in practice so as not to get tired.

1. The first is chances. You will treat every match in which you bet as if it were a pre-event event such as throwing a dice. You tell me that a football match can't be that way because its outcome is determined by one set of parameters. I didn't say it was like that, I said you should do it. Why;
Because at the end of the season you will have played 100 or 200 bets and some of them will pass. So you should have already figured out in advance how many of the 100 or 200 will spend setting each chance bet.

Example. Watch the Premier League closely and play Southampton and Burnley. If you intend to deal with the match, you should be able to give a "set of chances". Example: 1-X-2: 40-30-30. This is done with the help of the knowledge of the teams, the form of behavior inside-outside the form inside-outside absences of delivery, motivation, fatigue, etc. A check (again!) Parameters. Every player must slowly learn to do these on his own, but again, it is subjective. If after all this, in this particular match you are able to give a set of odds, go below. If you are not, then you do not have to deal with the match.

There are also exceptions to the rule, where no one has a picture of probability, but a Buk performance is extreme. like yesterday's 1 Superligaen match where in Copenhagen - Horsens the double gave 9.00 and fairplay (to me the best player I've ever met) bursts his will for the double. But, as you say, 1h Racing, what are your chances? But as if it's not even I, I know, but Boukis doesn't know either. Anyway. In many games, one cannot do probability estimation.
Another example, the World. Why in the World I personally didn't throw almost Euro at all? Because I don't have the championship match sequence so I have a place for the chances of the teams. I couldn't stand the odds. I folded. Others played, and hello with joy.


Not to get tired, if you don't have a place for the team chances, let alone. No bet. But if you have a picture, go to 2.

2. Where do you play? You're costing double the 30%, that is, about 3.30. Where will you play? You will obviously play if Boukis gives you the above, but the critical question is HOW MUCH MORE?
At 3.35; At 3.40; At 3.50; At 4.00; Where? How much "pillow" do you want? For me this step is the most important step in choosing a bet. The airbag. Why? I will tell you why.
Because when you estimate the probability of a double 30%, Are you sure that it is so; Answer: No. it is not a dice. It's football. It may be less, so if you buy at 3.40, you have not played well in the end. Even if 3.30 is the double (second argument), if you play at 3.40 the negative fluctuation will "swallow" you and you will be late to understand that your strategy is the right one. If you play the real 3.30 at 3.40 you will be late to look profitable. Third reason: by asking for a bigger pillow, you find it even harder to play a bet and you end up playing fewer bets, protecting your wine cellar from pointless bets.

Each of us chooses the "pillow" he wants. I here would like somewhere 4.20.

And here's your copy / paste of Southampton-Burnley last year sans voir:
Here's a look at all the reasoning I wrote to you in practice:


The bigger the error you have in a performance that is offered to you, the greater the margin you have to fall out of your appreciation for the fair performance, without your bet stopping being worth. Sounds a little confused. Let's go to the example:

Southampton (1.65) - Burnley (6.50)

We have a team that has only one defeat in the last 10 matches regardless of the organization (the one with the City, which is obviously "forgiven" as it is in the City this year).

We have a team that in places like Chelsea (2-3), Liverpool (1-1), Tottenham Hotspur (1-1) and Everton (0-1) have not lost or even won.

We have a team now in Southampton with the home team just having 2 wins in 6 matches.

And with all this data, they give us the 1.65 ace and the double 6.50. This seems completely wrong I would with all this data give the 2.50 ace and the double 3.50. Am I wrong? Not at all unlikely, but let's go back to what we were saying before: how much longer have I been wrong? And for 4.00 to be double even for ... 5.00 (we say now ...) and not 3.50 as I estimate, the bet still holds:

Southampton - Burnley 2 @ 6.50 (Bet365)



With such a pillow how much more am I wrong?

This is how value betting is for me.

Schematic: 100 Match Candidates, I play (on and off) 10, and eventually pass eg. 2

:)

Disagreement, anthology, chatting, all welcome
 
Answer: query for value bets

champions the other half of the puzzle (not to mention 90%) is what nklaps writes to you, THIS is the bali bet and so are things ....
If you embrace it and you manage to apply it, you become a real player.
This '' RIGHT '' is the trick ....
 
Answer: query for value bets

nklaps It looks like you are in the sport and your results actually prove that you are playing value bets: sign:

The point is how much time you spend and if it is ultimately worth it. Also for a few bets you make a small turnover unless you make a lot of money per bet.
These two factors are very important to make 100 euros at the end of the month, having spent 10 minutes per day and another 3 hours / day
Also if I see that I have an advantage and I'm sure I'm trying to make as much money as possible and let the advantage diminish, as long as there is
B.C. better to bet 1000 euro with 10% profit, ie 100 euro than 100 euro with profit 30% ie 30 euro
 
Answer: query for value bets

Champion dude

This whole lap was also my concern.
But I also write this in the sv report quoted by fairplay in a previous post:

So instead of playing 10 franks in every bet from the 5 you are thinking of playing (50 franks total), choose the best one, that is, the highest expected value. Just play this and put on it all the 50 francs you would put in total. So, when it comes to sans voir, instead of playing (schematically speaking) 175 bets from 10 "franks" each, he plays 35 bets from 50 "franks" with the same "opening" and ultimately profit 1.050 "franks". A season of joy is I think ...

For the time you are saying, I agree, but for me (not just me) Family and work is the prime. If it decreases time, it is good.
Of course, it takes a long time to find the wrong book. What to do, this is our hobby. Others like fishing.
:)
A bunch of money is spent on hooks, reed baits, and other equipment.
They sit for hours and fish. Let's go now! And (between us). Don't catch any fish! Nothing catches. With ... bucket (empty) and these! They're in! But they loved the hobby. There, they continue.
:)
And we love our hobbies and we can catch something and not get in.
Beyond the hobby, where he sees betting as a profession, I'm not the right person to talk to. I don't know what the cost - benefit is and how much time you have wasted.

When you make expected value 10% with a lot of money compared to less money at expected value 30% I answer that you are unsafe at 10%. Playing the 2.00 you see at 2.20 is a mistake because you are never sure that what you are seeing at 2.00 is actually 2.00.
At 2.60, however, you don't mind having a crush on 2.00. That's my thinking.
:)



Sent from my SM-J510FN using Tapatalk
 
  • Like
Reactions: Gastone13
Answer: query for value bets

And nklaps is right about the odds.
Do you see 40% and the yield is 3.00? It is a long-term value bet 0.40 x 3.00 - 1 = + 0.20.
Do you see 40% and the yield is 2.00? It is not a value bet because the long run yield is 0.40 x 2.00 - 1 = - 0.40.

I think most people understand this, as they understand that the harder the buck is, the harder it is to get something good.
E.g. in OPAP there is no value bet that you can beat. Even where you disagree in the evaluation with OPAP (let him say ace, say you double!).

But the big issue is this 40% we say, where did you get it?
If the buck gives 3.00 performance it means that with a standard 10% rake he would see the probability of the point being 0.9 / 3.00 = 0.3 = 30%.
How did you become a duck babe from Dove?

The book takes many things into account.
Once upon a time the AEK under Ferrer (teacher) was drawn to UEFA with Admira Wacker. Playing in OAKA, 3-0 wins the AEK easily.
We're talking about repeater now. Well AEK wasn't quite as strong as it was with Demy-Chiarda but it was saying something in Europe, and Admira with what heart would it take to overturn 3-0? Don't overthink it.
Easy double so. But the bouquets gave it ace. I say stupid, we did them, I'll play double.
But he became an ace, 3-2 and what do I learn afterwards (which of course others may have known in advance)? I learn that the Austrians had synthetic turf and the AEK players had never played on synthetic turf before. Indeed, the movements of AEK players on the pitch were not the right ones - all slips, easy mistakes in transfers. Rimbo also said "we are not used to it".
So the bucks had made it into the ace of the game - with 2.30 somewhere there, not a big favorite - because of the lawn.

So to say 40% probability and be 40% where the book says 30%, you must have studied the statistics and the situation in general.
Computer programs now what they do is yes calibrate the various statistical parameters and know how much one element (points eg), how much the other element (aggressive goals eg), how much the side element counts.
This process is not simple. You need to set benchmarks and go beyond banchmarks. That's why you see a lot of computer programs and scirpt websites that have been made in achahoo to make coats.
 
Last edited:
Answer: query for value bets

You know, in the old days, agents also helped a little.
You were sometimes seduced but because they watched the sport they were usually informed.
But now kids have no idea working in the agencies.
But apart from that, OPAP sends them circulars in which it says "you will sew it with a zipper and you will not say anything".
So agencies like sports talk sites tend to die.
 
Last edited:
Answer: query for value bets

All right and the conversation is beautiful.
Just to say that in the iteration of an 3-0 where the winner goes to her opponent's seat having already qualified, it makes sense for the asylum (and not the duplicate) to be a favorite, no matter the lawn.
Why?
Because the "Mazino line" as I say for AEK in the example was the 3-0 defeat. Which is to say that AEK went through with a draw, even with a 2-0 defeat. So he did not have to go to win. So the double can not be a favorite. The job is done with a 2-0 defeat.
That is, I would not play double, because the team I would play would not be "torn" for my bet. It would just go by. If it suits her, to win but so far.
:)

Sent from my SM-J510FN using Tapatalk
 
Answer: query for value bets

All right and the conversation is beautiful.
Just to say that in the iteration of an 3-0 where the winner goes to her opponent's seat having already qualified, it makes sense for the asylum (and not the duplicate) to be a favorite, no matter the lawn.
Why?
Because the "Mazino line" as I say for AEK in the example was the 3-0 defeat. Which is to say that AEK went through with a draw, even with a 2-0 defeat. So he did not have to go to win. So the double can not be a favorite. The job is done with a 2-0 defeat.
That is, I would not play double, because the team I would play would not be "torn" for my bet. It would just go by. If it suits her, to win but so far.
:)

Sent from my SM-J510FN using Tapatalk

AEK's superior and such games then cleaned them up.
Motivated and why one should go tear and the other also why.
But I already saw the match. AEK players were clearly displeased with the artificial.
 
  • Like
Reactions: nklaps
Answer: query for value bets

Working in a private sector in Greece with a family you have a very limited time whenever you want to and you can't take yourself too seriously
However, if nklaps makes 30% at a time with 40 bets he has to play a lot of money in every game to make some sense in his pocket, but it's a great thing to do, he doesn't seem to mind that as he just enjoys it. his hobby in the time he has left the pile of losers
Obviously if you gamble a lot and have a positive POI in your pocket the amount is bigger, but how easy is it to stay positive while playing a lot? Not at all easy
In European companies you can't do that anyway, you've got a limit before you even move, so you don't
In other companies that are slowly opening up earnings and eliminating serious mistakes, positive ROI makes it even more difficult.
So I wish someone could be very enthusiastic and stay positive, but especially difficult in closing odds
Otherwise you play kelp war with a few bets
 
Answer: query for value bets

Working in a private sector in Greece with a family you have a very limited time whenever you want to and you can't take yourself too seriously
However, if nklaps makes 30% at a time with 40 bets he has to play a lot of money in every game to make some sense in his pocket, but it's a great thing to do, he doesn't seem to mind that as he just enjoys it. his hobby in the time he has left the pile of losers
Obviously if you gamble a lot and have a positive POI in your pocket the amount is bigger, but how easy is it to stay positive while playing a lot? Not at all easy
In European companies you can't do that anyway, you've got a limit before you even move, so you don't
In other companies that are slowly opening up earnings and eliminating serious mistakes, positive ROI makes it even more difficult.
So I wish someone could be very enthusiastic and stay positive, but especially difficult in closing odds
Otherwise you play kelp war with a few bets

So is.
Companies normally had to consider advertising players with a - or rather positive - ROI.
Unfortunately, their systems are outdated and therefore they resort to exclusions.
We also have ridiculous laws that allow them and things get worse. State-owned companies are stealing similarly.
 
Answer: query for value bets

And nklaps is right about the odds.
Do you see 40% and the yield is 3.00? It is a long-term value bet 0.40 x 3.00 - 1 = + 0.20.
Do you see 40% and the yield is 2.00? It is not a value bet because the long run yield is 0.40 x 2.00 - 1 = - 0.40.

I think most people understand this, as they understand that the harder the buck is, the harder it is to get something good.
E.g. in OPAP there is no value bet that you can beat. Even where you disagree in the evaluation with OPAP (let him say ace, say you double!).

But the big issue is this 40% we say, where did you get it?
If the buck gives 3.00 performance it means that with a standard 10% rake he would see the probability of the point being 0.9 / 3.00 = 0.3 = 30%.
How did you become a duck babe from Dove?

The book takes many things into account.
Once upon a time the AEK under Ferrer (teacher) was drawn to UEFA with Admira Wacker. Playing in OAKA, 3-0 wins the AEK easily.
We're talking about repeater now. Well AEK wasn't quite as strong as it was with Demy-Chiarda but it was saying something in Europe, and Admira with what heart would it take to overturn 3-0? Don't overthink it.
Easy double so. But the bouquets gave it ace. I say stupid, we did them, I'll play double.
But he became an ace, 3-2 and what do I learn afterwards (which of course others may have known in advance)? I learn that the Austrians had synthetic turf and the AEK players had never played on synthetic turf before. Indeed, the movements of AEK players on the pitch were not the right ones - all slips, easy mistakes in transfers. Rimbo also said "we are not used to it".
So the bucks had made it into the ace of the game - with 2.30 somewhere there, not a big favorite - because of the lawn.

So to say 40% probability and be 40% where the book says 30%, you must have studied the statistics and the situation in general.
Computer programs now what they do is yes calibrate the various statistical parameters and know how much one element (points eg), how much the other element (aggressive goals eg), how much the side element counts.
This process is not simple. You need to set benchmarks and go beyond banchmarks. That's why you see a lot of computer programs and scirpt websites that have been made in achahoo to make coats.

the fight has been Salzburg strong since it started building empires in Austria (by Giovanni Trapatoni) - AEK 1-0 and not a bumper bumper (a small media that has been championing it since X-century and X of the historical truth ...... AEK played for qualifying clubs after being excluded by the Sevilla owner in August for years !!
 
Answer: query for value bets

the fight has been Salzburg strong since it started building empires in Austria (by Giovanni Trapatoni) - AEK 1-0 and not a bumper bumper (a small media that has been championing it since X-century and X of the historical truth ...... AEK played for qualifying clubs after being excluded by the Sevilla owner in August for years !!

Yes so it was it seems.
Here it shows:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ywcmaNeD4x0

The artificial grass on the court is clearly visible.
I was also impressed by the speaker (of Greek TV!) The moment the Austrian goal is scored. "Right - normal" breaks out in a hurry! Only "it was fair - it was done" does not tell us!
Contrast with the ... "contrary to the flow of the match", in the well-known 7-0.
 
Last edited:
Answer: query for value bets

All right and the conversation is beautiful.
Just to say that in the iteration of an 3-0 where the winner goes to her opponent's seat having already qualified, it makes sense for the asylum (and not the duplicate) to be a favorite, no matter the lawn.
Why?
Because the "Mazino line" as I say for AEK in the example was the 3-0 defeat. Which is to say that AEK went through with a draw, even with a 2-0 defeat. So he did not have to go to win. So the double can not be a favorite. The job is done with a 2-0 defeat.
That is, I would not play double, because the team I would play would not be "torn" for my bet. It would just go by. If it suits her, to win but so far.
:)

Sent from my SM-J510FN using Tapatalk
Which was not the case with Cluj's recent iteration of the stunning Dundellans (the kattis team!) To say it all.
The Mazino lines went for a walk.
The exception (confirming the rule).
:)

Sent from my SM-J510FN using Tapatalk
 
Answer: query for value bets

AEK was resting on 3-0 but also why should Salzburg deal with the dying story?
What I saw on TV was that AEK players slipped and made unmistakable errors in the transfers due to a poor estimation of the ball's speed in the artificial.
Will anyone in any case find me downloading and showing him how the value bets software works to get any England out?
I don't have time.
 
Goodmorning guys.
Is it possible to put a limit on your account by playing valuebets?
We are talking about always single and a fixed bet of 20 euros per game.
Thanks.

Shipped from my GM1913 using Tapatalk
 

Predictions

  • 22:00
    Novasports 2HD
    • Lazio - Juventus
  • 22:00
    COSMOTE SPORT 3 HD
    • Leicester - Southampton
  • 22:00
    Novasports Premier League
    • Arsenal - Chelsea
  • Tomorrow 24-04-2024
  • 01:00
    COSMOTE SPORT 8 HD
    • Estudiantes - Gremio
  • 20:30
    Novasports Prime
    • Panathinaikos AKTOR - Maccabi Tel Aviv
  • 22:00
    Novasports 5HD
    • Real Madrid - Baskonia
  • Tomorrow 24-04-2024
  • 01:00
    COSMOTE SPORT 7 HD
    • NBA TV 2023-24
  • 03:00
    COSMOTE SPORT 4 HD
    • NBA 2023-24
  • 03:30
    COSMOTE SPORT 7 HD
    • Milwaukee Bucks - Indiana Pacers
  • 04:00
    COSMOTE SPORT 7 HD
    • NBA TV 2023-24
    • There are no sports broadcasts from other sports today
General Chat
Help Users
  • No one is chatting right now.
  • PANATHA PANATHA:
    Where did you read this?
  • Ertzan Ertzan:
    according to beisports turkey is a publication of sportime says
  • Ertzan Ertzan:
    was the lover accused of doping? he probably overdid it with the viagra : smk1:
  • PANATHA PANATHA:
    Sportime has hit rock bottom....never believe it...
  • PANATHA PANATHA:
    Of course you're laughing, but the story with Ioannidis showed once again how low social media has become....every idiot writes that he's being bullied without any natural consequences....and it's a good thing that within a few hours the hypothesis was proven to be a hoax ...and it didn't work
    2-3 days...
  • Ertzan Ertzan:
    but the situation is laughable, In today's day I don't wonder about anything really
  • Ertzan Forum Bot:
    User Ertzan started a new topic called "IFC Cup#15 FINAL (20-21/4/2024)" in the IFC Competition.
  • Ertzan Ertzan:
    In my eyes with the eleven that Fener has sent and it's the one I wrote above Fener normally wins 2-0 at least because the ball is a whore as Osim also said everything we see can go wrong (see yesterday's)
  • Ertzan Ertzan:
    Atjun showed once again how big a Fenerbahce fan he is and the match will be shown on free TV8 : smk1:
  • Ertzan Ertzan:
    with the entry of Zaits, Fener is currently playing with 10 players
  • PANATHA PANATHA:
    I say it will go to penalties
  • Ertzan Ertzan:
    I wish
  • Ertzan Ertzan:
    Dzikou holds the defense
  • Ertzan Ertzan:
    at the moment Fener is playing with 10 players
  • Ertzan Ertzan:
    Krunic even enters
  • Ertzan Ertzan:
    if Olympiacos can and really scores its magic, if it loses it deserves its fate
  • Ertzan Ertzan:
    Now the coach of Fener "fucked" them but he tells you that Olympiacos is not coming so I can put them
  • Ertzan Ertzan:
    as I wrote to a friend besides Batshuayi, I wouldn't change anyone and even if their legs had to be amputated, maybe instead of Bekao if he was injured I would put Bonucci for the penalties
  • Ertzan Ertzan:
    Krunic, Zaijc, Under, Caglar that useless there is put the incompetent
  • Water resistant Forum Bot:
    User Water resistant started a new topic called "is there an anonymous wallet?" in the Electronic wallets.
  • S Forum Bot:
    User ssk started a new topic called "Double bet" in the Football Predictions.
  • PANATHA PANATHA:
    What a crazy league this is...
  • K Forum Bot:
    User kandalf started a new topic called "Account management" in the Betting conversations.
  • Ertzan Ertzan:
    Our kids have beaten the Italians, especially the 3-0, even Cristiano Ronaldo would be jealous
  • Ertzan Ertzan:
    THE FIRST GREEK TEAM TO WIN A EUROPEAN TITLE IN FOOTBALL, OLYMPIAKS YOUNG PEOPLE : smk1:
    Ertzan Ertzan: THE FIRST GREEK TEAM TO WIN A EUROPEAN TITLE IN FOOTBALL, OLYMPIAKS YOUNG PEOPLE : smk1: