ARB - why it can be useless - part XNUMX

cosmicsports

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30 IOL 2010
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arb is a method for small but sure profits from betting.
Companies don't allow it though and they may put limits on you or close your account.

We will see an arb in action with a simple example.
It is a betting event with two outcomes for the sake of simplicity and the odds are as follows:

book A 1.40 - 2.90 (rake = 5.6%)

book B 1.60 - 2.30 (rake = 5.6%)

If you split your money between the two versions in A you lose 5.6% and similarly if you split in B you lose 5.6% again

But if you take A's 2.90 and B's 1.60 and divide then you get a profit of 3.1%.
This is the arb.

But what is actually happening?
Why do the two bookies have different odds?
Sometimes we know the reason, sometimes we don't know exactly, but someone is right and someone is wrong.
Either 1.60 is too generous, or 2.90.
Which of the two?
Logically the correct one is later of the two.

If A is correct, then h chance of 1.40 is 67.4% ( = (1/1.40)/(1/1.40 + 1/2.9) ).
But we play it to 1.60 us and it comes out average profit = 0.674 x 1.60 - 1 = 7.84%.

If B is correct, then the probability of 2.30 is 41.0% ( = (1/2.3)/(1/1.60+1/2.30) ).
But we play it to 2.90 us and it comes out average profit = 0.410 x 2.90 - 1 = 18.90%.

The differences with arb are as you see big, much better results over time.
As long as good performance remains available.

The two points are firstly that the arb must be present and that the correct odds are those of the bet that came later. It is hard for this not to be the case, the later reacted to something.

So the problem shifts as follows:

a) to find the arb of the day
b) to tell us which of the two/three bookies is later


If someone does that, it's as much a warranty as arb and better.
Will it save you from the limits-exclusions?
Maybe because you don't do classic arb.
But since your capital will grow, you might get it again - since that's what the bookies basically do!
 
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What exactly do you mean by <<later>>?

Suppose that bookie A has opened odds for a certain match to be played in 12 days, 8 days before this event.

And bookie B opens its odds for said event 3 days before the day of the match.

Book A has the DNB for the guest at 3.25, while in book B the same market has a price of 2.35.

Who is right and who is wrong?

So which of the two has the value performance (and meets the priorities to enter arb-zone) and who has the right one?

9/10 cases, the bookie who opens prices as close as possible to the start time of the match has the correct performance. In this case, the bookie B.

That is why Asia opens odds quite slowly compared to other soft books and has been justified for this tactic over time based on how "accurate" even its opening odds are, compared to other bookmakers.

Because it is one thing for Asia to open the DNB at 2.5 and it falls to 1.90 before the match starts, and another for the respective bookie to have opened the same market at 3.20 and eat all the turnover until the final 1.90.
For example, even in euroleague matches, some soft odds are opened 7 days before the match, while Asia strictly opens the night before the match. Obviously, here too, if you go and bet Villerban's victory at 1.90 in the bookmaker and with the when the match starts, the same option is at 1.45, at some point you will eat your limit. And not because you did arb (which you didn't), but simply because you know how to play. And the companies don't want such players. They want people to they go to bet 5 thousand at 1.45, and not to play 300 euros at 1.95.

Now regarding the "how much value" the odds have, as you also noticed, for me to play a market at 1.60 while its real price is 1.40, it is value indeed, but very small in my opinion.
It is one thing to find such a point and another to find a point at 2.90 whose fair odds are at 2.30.

This discrepancy is huge and is indicative of the fact that high returns have the best conditions to hide great value. It's just that many people are afraid of high returns and don't prefer them, while in fact they are what will give them a good long-term profit.
 
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In the old days, arb was advertised a lot by various sites.
It was a way to get you to sign up with many companies that wanted to get members.
Not now.
You can't even find the arbs. It was betbrain.com saying the arbs of the day. Is there such a site now?
 
In the old days, arb was advertised a lot by various sites.
It was a way to get you to sign up with many companies that wanted to get members.
Not now.
You can't even find the arbs. It was betbrain.com saying the arbs of the day. Is there such a site now?
I am registered at betburger.com but from what I understand we cannot do many things from Greece. In most betting companies we can't register so with blue and green we can't do work .. I haven't paid a subscription yet but I don't see paying! If anyone has experience with this site, let us know what they know!
 
I am registered at betburger.com but from what I understand we cannot do many things from Greece. In most betting companies we can't register so with blue and green we can't do work .. I haven't paid a subscription yet but I don't see paying! If anyone has experience with this site, let us know what they know!

I don't know this betburger. I will see it.
betbrain has not always been accurate. He used to tell you e.g. William Hill 7.80 and you went to William Hill and it said 5.80.
In any case, it is always a problem to play with small companies because they can make you a straitjacket, and an additional problem is the Greek situation,
 

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