Beating Pinnacle Closing Odds

kerkireos

Well-Known Member
3 Oct 2012
2,146
1,292
113
Average DiffAverage Diff%
Frequenciesâ € <
0.019â € <
â € <
3.8%â € <
Drunkâ € <
Equalâ € <
Belowâ € <
Sample 294 gamesâ € <
â € <
51.6%â € <
6.4%â € <
42.0%â € <
Last edited:
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kerkireos

Well-Known Member
3 Oct 2012
2,146
1,292
113
I found some time and found last season's closing odds on AH, the sample is small (294). Is 3.8% satisfactory?
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kerkireos

Well-Known Member
3 Oct 2012
2,146
1,292
113
Average Diffâ € <
Average Diff%â € <
Frequencies
0.0213.2%
Drunkâ € <
Equalâ € <
Belowâ € <
51.1%â € <
7.6%â € <
41.4%â € <
Sample 311 games
â € <
â € <
â € <
â € <
â € <
Last edited:

stpsilan

Active Member
25 Oct 2017
215
106
43
I found some time and found last season's closing odds on AH, the sample is small (294). Is 3.8% satisfactory?
This is your roi in pinacle closing odds;
Satisfactory is clearly, with cigars you are if you have constant 3,8%

kerkireos

Well-Known Member
3 Oct 2012
2,146
1,292
113
It's not the ROI, it's the MOST higher amount, it's the returns I play on closing odds.I imagine these don't match.

The ROi were
2017-2018 9.1%
2018-2019 2.74%


But he is not at all AH, he has Over GG etc
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Fairplay

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18 Mar 2015
825
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It's not the ROI, it's the MOST higher amount, it's the returns I play on closing odds.I imagine these don't match.

The ROi were
2017-2018 9.1%
2018-2019 2.74%


But he is not at all AH, he has Over GG etc
If you have the numbers I see to make a decent profit try to raise your lap.
Jiro you want .....
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kerkireos

Well-Known Member
3 Oct 2012
2,146
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I doubled my stake last year which taught me many things.
With 9.1% last year I thought I had the advantage of the sport and it's a game and it will be the next year's profit. I start off loose and from October the cufflinks begin, as I praise go bucket, be a gym to open the internet and scan the scoreless goals one after the other in a place where I can laugh, have 0 psychology and persuade whatever I play would be a bucket.
I thought about stopping before I missed what I had done the previous year, doubling my hat for fluctuating and going back (bad idea!) I finished the article colder, took a little break and continued with a clear mind and a clear mind. on me...

Before October 2017 I was lauded for psychics and various jokes, since October 2017 I decided to take it more seriously.

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anon

Active Member
28 Nov 2017
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Are the closing values ​​the same or have you removed the rake? That is, you are playing a point on 2.1 and it closes on 1.95 with 5% rake. Would you compare the 2.1 you played with the 1.95 or the 2.05 which is the real value?
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kerkireos

Well-Known Member
3 Oct 2012
2,146
1,292
113
With 1.95!
Somewhere I've read that I need to add an 2% percentage, but I read that I don't need to ...

stpsilan

Active Member
25 Oct 2017
215
106
43
I doubled my stake last year which taught me many things.
With 9.1% last year I thought I had the advantage of the sport and it's a game and it will be the next year's profit. I start off loose and from October the cufflinks begin, as I praise go bucket, be a gym to open the internet and scan the scoreless goals one after the other in a place where I can laugh, have 0 psychology and persuade whatever I play would be a bucket.
I thought about stopping before I missed what I had done the previous year, doubling my hat for fluctuating and going back (bad idea!) I finished the article colder, took a little break and continued with a clear mind and a clear mind. on me...

Before October 2017 I was lauded for psychics and various jokes, since October 2017 I decided to take it more seriously.
Looking at it, 9% in stocks are huge, if you kept up with this turnover rate you would be a Bahamas
With 3% you want turnover to make sense but if you turn around right now logic says that roi will fall too
With 1.95!
Somewhere I've read that I need to add an 2% percentage, but I read that I don't need to ...
9% fixed on the board if you also have cigars, it may be possible to open it if you play but it has a small margin and you can buy immediately and obviously you will have less turnover
Then you go up a turn, but the rake will obviously eat you up
And 3% is satisfactory I think, but you want a turnover of hundreds of thousands of euros to make sense
It also depends on the time you spend if you have it
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kerkireos

Well-Known Member
3 Oct 2012
2,146
1,292
113
I don't understand what you mean, I had 9% ROI overhead, and it wasn't the only pinnacle.
How does a regular lap fall in ROI?

anon

Active Member
28 Nov 2017
91
146
33
With 1.95!
Somewhere I've read that I need to add an 2% percentage, but I read that I don't need to ...
The way you compare them is wrong. You should use odds-free returns for calculations. You now have 2 difference units which however do not earn the spread which is usually 4-10 + units, depending on the game. Commonly, the rake eats you slowly. You are playing 2 which closes on 1.98 with 5% rake and while you are 2 points above the closing, you actually have a bet with -EV 4%. Logically at some stage it will turn into a negative sign and your yield.
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stpsilan

Active Member
25 Oct 2017
215
106
43
I don't understand what you mean, I had 9% ROI overhead, and it wasn't the only pinnacle.
How does a regular lap fall in ROI?
Yeah ok, I didn't say it right, I only thought panel checks, to go up the turn you would play more match says logic, but the roll will drop, if you wait for the boundaries to go up you will get worse value then the roll will fall, this says logic and action in my own game
You can also do 20% in European bout but eat a shot before you talk
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kerkireos

Well-Known Member
3 Oct 2012
2,146
1,292
113
The way you compare them is wrong. You should use odds-free returns for calculations. You now have 2 difference units which however do not earn the spread which is usually 4-10 + units, depending on the game. Commonly, the rake eats you slowly. You are playing 2 which closes on 1.98 with 5% rake and while you are 2 points above the closing, you actually have a bet with -EV 4%. Logically at some stage it will turn into a negative sign and your yield.
Yes I understand ... Whenever the conclusion is that in the long run I will be lost, right?

Fairplay

Well-Known Member
18 Mar 2015
825
987
93
Yes I understand ... Whenever the conclusion is that in the long run I will be lost, right?
You got it right.
'' Algebra '' they say. . It may take a long time for your roosters to be born and for whatever you are trying to get out of. When it comes down to math, what we are about to happen is.

It may be illusory or utopian but I hunt as much potassium as possible. Other times I am right and I am wrong. Other than 5 and 10% I do not play them. I do not say if I am wrong. I need some valium from 30% to drop my uterus. (Well someone will say: and where do you find these valium buds?). It's not our issue, but of course there are a few ...

Corfu ... you are looking in the right direction if you only want one phrase from me: "" You don't care how much fun you play if you really get 7 in your 10 bet to get 20% plus .....


All I do is not with the teacher's style but with the desire to make you go a little further.
The verification of the above is Tigres who just months ago showed us 3 in the forum that you are destroying the bunk without your ass looking. It is enough to be able to find REALLY VILLIUM with a large pillow.

He once had a small hole in his pocket that was half as long as his five-pound euro. As you can see, his pocket was full of small coins, and he often came upstairs. He couldn't chase it ..... In the first booth he did all the little things coins that had a wider and quieter ......:)

Take a look at Tigres' trend with valium and what you have in here we are: ...
Don't start asking questions of style .... and we know what the limit is. ...... this answer will not give this path ... let them look elsewhere :)

And of course, even a late win for Tigres ... well !!!!

anon

Active Member
28 Nov 2017
91
146
33
Yes I understand ... Whenever the conclusion is that in the long run I will be lost, right?
Yes, most likely you will be lost. It can also be seen from the graph. While the downward slope has begun to creep in, it has taken 2 months to reasonably catch everything and launch you. Somewhere here of course there is a huge asterisk. Firstly, because your sample is small and just this negative slope may mean nothing. Secondly why closing odds are relevant. While it is an estimator that is proven to be quite accurate in its entirety but can be tragic in isolation. It depends on what leagues we're talking about. For small groups playing one village to another or Premier League and Bundesliga commercial games?

In big games it's hard to find mistakes. The odds are stripped and stretched by a thousand. Small parties can be a party. In a small match and indifferent betting you can play an under 3.5 on 1.9, bet on 1-2 people over and finally under to close on 2. Theoretically you have a bad bet but then you look at the first 10 minutes of the match and you see the line has changed to 2.75 goals which means your bet was worth it and let it be over. What I mean. When closing odds are right then there is a continuation of odds with smooth changes to live.

What you can do is take one of the matches you played and check how the odds have moved in the first 10 and 20 minutes of the match. There you will understand much better what to expect. If the odds you play are consistently dropped live then you will continue to win. If they do not fall and are simply a continuation of the closing odds then it is simply a matter of time to return to the buzz.

playmaker

Member
19 Ion 2019
70
17
8
39
What you can do is take one of the matches you played and check how the odds have moved in the first 10 and 20 minutes of the match. There you will understand much better what to expect. If the odds you play are consistently dropped live then you will continue to win. If they do not fall and are simply a continuation of the closing odds then it is simply a matter of time to return to the buzz.
even if the odds don't fall in the first 20 min
and teams score in the second half and win the matches


how does the theory you put into your mind stand?

stpsilan

Active Member
25 Oct 2017
215
106
43
You got it right.
'' Algebra '' they say. . It may take a long time for your roosters to be born and for whatever you are trying to get out of. When it comes down to math, what we are about to happen is.

It may be illusory or utopian but I hunt as much potassium as possible. Other times I am right and I am wrong. Other than 5 and 10% I do not play them. I do not say if I am wrong. I need some valium from 30% to drop my uterus. (Well someone will say: and where do you find these valium buds?). It's not our issue, but of course there are a few ...

Corfu ... you are looking in the right direction if you only want one phrase from me: "" You don't care how much fun you play if you really get 7 in your 10 bet to get 20% plus .....


All I do is not with the teacher's style but with the desire to make you go a little further.
The verification of the above is Tigres who just months ago showed us 3 in the forum that you are destroying the bunk without your ass looking. It is enough to be able to find REALLY VILLIUM with a large pillow.

He once had a small hole in his pocket that was half as long as his five-pound euro. As you can see, his pocket was full of small coins, and he often came upstairs. He couldn't chase it ..... In the first booth he did all the little things coins that had a wider and quieter ......:)

Take a look at Tigres' trend with valium and what you have in here we are: ...
Don't start asking questions of style .... and we know what the limit is. ...... this answer will not give this path ... let them look elsewhere :)

And of course, even a late win for Tigres ... well !!!!
There is no answer to the barrier
Then you're illegal to do
Also for such value percentages you are obviously referring to European yields
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