KENTUCKY. DERBY. 2019

ithinon

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22 Dec 2005
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KENTAKY DERBY 2019 with 35 "qualifying" races which were won by 28 different winners (!!) Thus completed the biggest race of the year:

1) Tacitus [HRN odds: 6-1 β ???? (150) 1stWood Memorial β ???? Tapit β ???? B. Mott / J. Ortiz β ???? 4: 3-0-0 - $ 653,000] Aside from his debut race, Tacitus has been perfect. The royally bred Juddmonte runner won the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) and the Wood Memorial (G2) with determined runs in his only starts the season. In Florida, he had to squeeze through the tight quarters down the stretch, and in New York he was bumped hard more than once, and stayed in the stride going into the first turn. In both cases, he used his size and strength to get the victory. He has been improving with each start and could be the one to give his trainer Bill Mott and his sister Tapit their first Derby winners. Win contender.

2) Omaha Beach [HRN odds: 9-2 β ???? (137.5) 1st Arkansas Derby β ???? War Front β ???? R. Mandella / M. Smith b ???? 7: 3-3-1 - $ 1,121,800] With jockey Mike Smith choosing to ride Omaha Beach over Roadster, they are likely to head to the Derby starting gate as the favorite. When the son of War Front switched from turf to dirt to open the year, he became a different horse. At Oaklawn Park, Omaha Beach beat the two most highly ranked 3-year-olds when he first topped the Game Winner in the Rebel (G2) and then Improbable in the Arkansas Derby (G1). Defeating two top Bob Baffert horses on the Derby trail is an amazing accomplishment. Since the points system started, winning 100-point race and having tactical speed was essential and this Richard Mandella trainee checks these boxes. Top choice and likely favorite.

3) Vekoma [HRN odds: 15-1 β ???? (110) 1stBlue Grass β ???? Candy Ride β ???? G. Weaver / J. Castellano β ???? 4: 3-0-1 - $ 788,850] Vekoma has become known for his front leg action when he runs but has no effect on his ability to win. This son of Candy Ride is another horse that likes to run close to lead and sports a key 100-point victory. He used his speed to his advantage in the Blue Grass (G2) on that day that the Keeneland track showed bias in favor of front-runners. It seems that the Derby field is loaded with pace pressers, however, and this will make Vekoma's task formidable. Mid-pack finish likely.

4) Plus Que Parfait [HRN odds: 50-1 β ???? (104) 1st UAE Derby β ???? Point of Entry β ???? B. Walsh / R. Santana Jr. b ???? 7: 2-1-2 - $ 1,590,400] Even with its 100-point status, past winners of the UAE Derby (G2) have not had much luck on the first Saturday in May. The Brendan Walsh runner topped a rather weak field but made some brave moves in the stretch to do so. The Dubai based runners showed plenty of early speed but did not finish well as second-tier American horses rounded out the exacta. Plus Que Parfait will go off at a big price with little chance at any return. Toss.

5) Roadster HRN odds: 5-1 b ???? (100) 1stSanta Anita Derby b ???? Quality Road β ???? B. Baffert / F. Geroux β ???? 4: 3-0-1 - $ 706,200] Remember back to last summer when Bob Baffert hinted that Roadster could be his next Justify? After running third in the Del Mar Futurity (G1) behind the Game Winner, he had a throat surgery to correct a breathing problem. Since then he has come back with two wins in 2019. Roadster checks a third box for recent Derby winners, and that's an unbeaten record as a 3-year-old. In the Santa Anita Derby (G1) he rallied from the back again than usual to turn the tables on Game Winner. At this point, it seems that Baffert was right about Roadster, because he was the only one of his three in this field to win on the Derby trail since the new year. Still, he has only run in California and against small fields. Lots still to prove.

6) By My Standards [HRN odds: 20-1 β ???? (100) 1st Louisiana Derby β ???? Goldencents β ???? B. Calhoun / G. Saez b ???? 4: 2-2-1 - $ 653,710] By My Standards jumped from a special weight win in his fourth attempt to 100-point victory in the Louisiana Derby (G2). He sat on a stalking trip there and benefited from the unorthodox start that eliminated the favorite War of Will as a contender. He would have made another major jump up to be a major player in the big race. Overall, the Fair Grounds horses have not fared well in Derby recently. Toss.

7) Maximum Security [HRN odds: 10-1 β ???? (100) 1st Florida Derby β ???? New Year's Day b ???? Ja. Service / L. Saez b ???? 4: 4-0-0 - $ 649,400] He's undefeated and 100-point winner and possesses speed. These are all measures for success in the Derby this past decade. Since the former $ 16,000 claimer took the Florida Derby (G1) going to wire, he has become the field's most divisive runner. Many believe he is the real deal, and that Jason Servis can have him ready to go 10 furlongs, while others feel that he got away with a pedestrian pace that will not happen on the first Saturday in May. Debut away, but a wise colleague of mine said that it must be remembered that Game Winner is the first-string horse for Gary and Mary West and that Maximum Security has already overachieved at Gulfstream Park. Could he be the classic rabbit for Game Winner? Will not be there at the end.

8. ) Game Winner [HRN odds: 8-1 β ???? (85) 2nd Santa Anita Derby β ???? Candy Ride β ???? B. Baffert / J.Rosario b ???? 6: 4-2-0 - $ 1,846,000] When do two seconds in Kentucky Derby preps become a disappointment? That's when you live in the Bob Baffert Barn and you won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and the division championship as a 2-year-old. Game Winner lost those races to the two horses who will win for Derby favoritism in Roadster and Omaha Beach. He is certainly capable of getting the distance, and there is no reason to think that he will not be right there at the end. Must-use horse.

9) Code of Honor [HRN odds: 15-1 β ???? (74) 3rd Florida Derby β ???? Noble Mission β ???? S. McGaughey / J. Velazquez β ???? 5: 2-1-1 - $ 478,820] One thing we know for sure is that Code of Honor is likely to go off at the highest odds of his career. He was overlooked in the Fountain of Youth when he won at 9-1, and in the Derby 15-1 is possible. Critics say he is peace dependent, but there is certainly a chance that there will be plenty of front-end pressure. Shug is going to have him ready to roll. Use underneath.

10) Haikal [HRN odds: 30-1 β ???? (70) 3rdWood Memorial β ???? Daaher b ???? K. McLaughlin / R. Maragh β ???? 5: 3-1-1 - $ 373,900] Haikal is another one of the late runners, and he is a genuine deep closer. Orb was the last with that running style to win the Derby, but others have hit the board. In every race this season, Haikal was asked to do something new, going longer and longer, and he responded. On the first Saturday in May, he is finally going to race on a track other than Aqueduct. He's another one that will have hefty odds with a chance to be part of the trifecta or the superfecta. Use in vertical wagers

11) Improbable [HRN odds: 10-1 β ???? (65) 2nd Arkansas Derby β ???? City Zip β ???? B. Baffert / I. Ortiz Jr. b ???? 5: 3-2-0 - $ 619,520] Two starts and two second-place finishes for Improbable this year. Both were close finishes at Oaklawn Park. Quffely, we expect Baffert to win these Derby preps like he did with his two Triple Crown winners, but in the past he has won the Derby without winning Derby preps. No doubt, Improbable will carry the biggest odds of his career, and that should make his loyal fans happy. He has developed a habit of racing down the stretch with his head cocked towards the stands, and I do not like it. Baffert puts blinkers on the Arkansas Derby but does not plan to use the equipment again at Churchill Downs. Improbable has fallen out of favor with me. Irad Ortiz will replace his brother, Jose, who opted to ride Tacitus. Threat to win.

12) War of Will [HRN odds: 20-1 β ???? (60) 9thLouisiana Derby β ???? War Front β ???? M. Casse / T. Gaffalione β ???? 8: 3-3-1 - $ 501,569] Heading into the Louisiana Derby, War of Will was the buzz horse after showing everything you want from a Derby contender: tactical speed and a turn of foot down the stretch. He won the Lecomte (G3) and Risen Star (G2) in fine fashion. Then came that bizarre start that cost him all chance in the Louisiana Derby. He went back to the barn sore, but he is now reported to be training lights out. If he is actually entering the Run for the Roses with no ill-effects, he could be very dangerous and forgotten a bit at the windows. A price horse with quality.

13) Long Range Toddy [HRN odds: 30-1 β ???? (53.5) 6th Arkansas Derby β ???? Take Charge Indy b ???? S. Asmussen / J. Court b ???? 8: 4-1-1 - $ 854,459] We've seen Steve Asmussen runners improve with more racing, and Long Range Toddy is certainly one of them. He defeated the Improbable in the Rebel as one of his four career victories. No doubt he will be fighting to the end and passing tired horses, but I do not see him as a winner. He's another one with good odds to consider in exotic wagers. Use underneath.

14) Tax [HRN odds: 30-1 β ???? (52) 2nd Wood Memorial β ???? Arch b ???? D. Gargan / J. Alvarado β ???? 5: 2-2-1 - $ 326,300] One of the former claimers in this year's Derby field, he debuted at Churchill Downs last year for a $ 30,000 tag. He was second best in the Wood Memorial, but the water gets much deeper in the first jewel of the Triple Crown. He will be a big price, but you can not use them all. Toss.

15) Cutting Humor [HRN odds: 30-1 β ???? (50) 1st Sunland Derby β ???? First Samurai β ???? T. Pletcher / TBA β ???? 6: 2-2-1 - $ 516,967] This Todd Pletcher runner qualified with his victory in the Sunland Derby over Anothertwistafate, a horse that many experts held in high regard. He is one of many in this year's field with that desirable stalking running style. Likely, he's going to win more races in his career, but there are too many others that I like more in this spot. Toss.

16) Win Win Win [HRN odds: 30-1 β ???? (50) 2nd Blue Grass β ???? Hat Trick b ???? M. Trombetta / J. Pimentel β ???? 6: 3-2-1 - $ 367,300] When Win Win Win made up some ground in the Keeneland stretch to get second behind Vekoma in the Blue Grass, he was racing against a real front end bias that aided the winner. Previously, Win Win Win also set a track record in the seven-furlong Pasco stakes at Tampa Bay Downs. He is more than a stalker and will have the chance to pass a lot of tired horses in the Derby. Still, I think I like others better, but it must be considered for the exotics. Consider for the exotics.

17) Country House [HRN odds: 30-1 β ???? (50) 3rd Arkansas Derby β ???? Lookin At Lucky b ???? B. Mott / TBA β ???? 6: 1-2-1 - $ 260,175] Country House is another 3-year-old that is likely to make noise later in the year. Maybe we can give him an excuse in the Derby Arkansas due to the sloppy track, although he did not end up with a non-threatening third when he passed horses that were not a factor. He will have long odds in the Derby, but he is not on my list of horses to use in the trifecta. Others may prefer to use him. Possible to use underneath.

18) Gray Magician [HRN odds: 50-1 β ???? (41) 2nd UAE Derby b ???? Graydar β ???? P. Miller / TBA β ???? 8: 1-3-2 - $ 584,140] He shows just a maiden victory at Santa Anita against a field of six. In his only American Derby prep, Gray Magician ran fourth in the Sham (G3) to open the year. Logically, if I do not like the winner of the UAE Derby then I can not use the runner-up. Toss.

19) Spinoff [HRN odds: 30-1 β ???? (39) 2ndLouisiana Derby β ???? Hard Spun b ???? T. Pletcher / M. Franco β ???? 4: 2-1-1 - $ 260,000] He had the lead in the stretch of the Louisiana Derby only to be passed by the winner, By My Standards. This son of Hard Spun made only one other start this year, which was a big allowance victory at Tampa. It's another one that fits the current popular style of the Derby as a stalker who has shown some early speed at times. They are like others. Toss.


20) Master Fencer [HRN odds: 50-1 b ???? (Japan Invite) 2nd Fukuryu Stakes (JPN) b ???? Just a Way (JPN) b ???? K. Tsunoda / J. Leparoux β ???? 6: 2-2-0 - $ 234,392] It's too bad that a horse that has shot in Derby like Signalman may miss his chance because this guy gets into the field from Japan. He has not won a stakes race and can not even be considered a possibility in any kind of Derby bet. Pretender



Source: horseracingnation
 
Last edited by administrator:
Answer: KENTUCKY. DERBY. 2019

buffer rides three horses and it is very curious that his main rider the "big money" smith
chose Omaha (!!) of mandella (!)
This has two "readings" !! either that Smith saw a "superiority" of Omaha, or that Buffert uses Smith, as a Trojan horse, to bring his own horses first !! What I saw from the videos is that the game winner has been wronged a lot by the rosario riders (!) in the video with the improbable lost about 50 feet according to a tracus measurement !! He took out the 7th-8th wheel running out of everyone with a whip! In the video with Omaha, he again gives the victory to smith as a gift, who, in order not to lose, has made the perfect ride in terms of aerodynamics !! But if you pay attention after the goal, the game winner will cover him .. !! to the game winner to limit his tendency for the outside in the last turn, he has the first luck ..!
The improbable with irad Ortiz Jr just does not fill my eye! In the derby he will find 19 horses in front of him, not 6 (!) His brother jose will ride Tacitus! I'm afraid of this horse! He has a nice stride and if he does not close in the turn he can catch them ..! As a huge outsider even for the victory I see the long range toddy! Asmussen did not write it by chance ..! All his horses "come" with the races they eat!
These 3 horses are seen by ithinon! I will make the trifects the next Saturday and I will play them at bet365
 
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Answer: KENTUCKY. DERBY. 2019

FINAL FIELD

1 war of will
2 neighborhoods
3 by my standards
4 gray magician
5 improbable
6 ever
7 maximum securer
8 Tacitus
9 plus parfait
10 cutting humor
13 code of honor
14 win win win
15 master fencer
16 game winner
17 roadsters
18 long range toddy
19 spinoff
20 country house
21 bodexpress

FINAL KOURSA
 
Answer: KENTUCKY. DERBY. 2019

Trippers:

16 / 8,18 / 5,6,7,13,14,17 = 12 combinations
16 / 5,6,7,13,14,17 / 8,18 = 12
8,18 / 16 / 5,6,7,13,14,17 = 12
8,18 / 5,6,7,13,14,17 / 16 = 12
 

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