Swedish Uddeholm Rally 2003
Profile
The Swedish rally is described by locals as the rally against winter. This is because at the point and season it is usually the Arctic winter with a lot of snow and temperatures well below zero. 1960 first appeared and as it is easy to imagine only Swedes and Finns win it. When conditions are good (ie very snow and fluffy) the rally is very spectacular and fast. The tire companies have come out with rows of snow-tailed nails (2 or 5 millimeters) that give good traction (perhaps better than other rails) and WRC cars fly in the snow. For even better grip, tires are used tight and high, which increases the pressure on the tire tread and nails grip better. The roads are also carved between snowbanks and experienced drivers use them (falling over them with the back of the car) as reflectors to facilitate turns. Of course, the team technicians do not get too excited when they start the engine at -15. Arctic temperatures also make it difficult for cars elsewhere (such as frost freezers, frozen snow ducts, etc.). If it does not have much snow then there are also sections with clean soil that destroys the tire nails and disrupts traction on later snow points. If the weather is very good for days then there is no snow and the race is canceled (as 1990 did). The rally headquarters are located in Karlstad in northwestern Sweden but most of the routes and service parks are around the small town of Hagfors 80km north so that snow is more and more likely.
The rally consists (classically) of 3 days (legs) and 17 special stages. The race starts on Friday 7/2 and ends on Sunday 9/2. According to the program it covers 1939 km, 387 on special and 1552 on roads to and from the special and checkpoints. Longer special Granberget (SS3 & 7) 44km while shorter Hagfors sprint (1 & 2) 1.8 km.
Several snowfall and arctic temperatures have been reported in the Hagfors area over the last week. Temperatures from –5 to –15 (day) are expected for the Rally RC, a very good weather for the rally.
Prehistory
2002: Gronholm with Peugeot, Rovanpera with Peugeot, Sainz with Ford.
2001: Rovanpera with Peugeot, Radstrom with Mitsubishi (Carisma GT not WRC), Sainz with Ford.
2000: Gronholm with Peugeot, Makinen with Mitsubishi, C.McRae with Ford.
Today's drivers have:
Gronholm 2 wins (2002, 2000).
Makinen 3 wins (1999, 1998, 1996) and two second places.
Rovanpera 1 win (2001) and a second place finish.
Eriksson 2 wins (1997, 1995).
Radstrom 1 win (1994) and second place.
Sainz 4 second and two third places.
C.McRae a second and two third places.
For manufacturers over the last decade:
Peugeot has three consecutive wins (2000-2002).
Subaru has a 1997 win.
Ford has some creeps in the trio.
Mitsubishi, although not the protagonist for the last two years, has a good record with 4 wins at 1998-9 and 1995-6.
Tires: Subaru uses Pirelli while others use Michelin.
Latest News
Mitsubishi does not participate in the race.
Suggestions
The odds are that the bets made by the betting offices are sad. Indicative averages: Gronholm 1.57, Rovanpera 5.00, others 11.00 and above.
My opinion is that Gronholm has 40 +% chance of winning it but the best performance I found is 1.61 which means over 55% chance. So there is certainly no value to Gronholm's performance though in my opinion he is the most likely winner. Not even Rovanpera's performance makes me happy. I look with interest at the Sainz case that glorifies victory to break the Scandinavian domination (13.00). I also consider the cases of Makinen, Solberg, McRae (respectively 15.00, 13.00, 15.00). It seems to me that out of the 30 units I had planned for the race, I would throw a dozen at risky bets and nothing else.
I'll be back with more new and final suggestions on Thursday 6 / 2 / 2003.
Outright for the championship
My frustration is also great because Gronholm's performance for the championship has remained stable around 1.60 despite Monte Carlo's 0 degrees.
An interesting case for the championship is Sainz's performance on William Hill. Despite Monte Carlo's third position, the bureau has upgraded Sainz's performance to 34.00 (by 26.00) which it does Attractive is a bet on each way.
What does each way mean (1 / 5 odds, 1-3 positions). If I bet 5 units on Sainz in 34.00 odds each way it means I place 2 bets with total 2 * 5 units:
1 .-> 5 units in Sainz's victory at odds of 34.00.
2 .-> 5 units in the conquest by Sainz of one of the first three places at odds of 7.60. 7.60 results from the following formula: ((34.00-1) / 5) +1.
This means that if Sainz comes first I have two correct predictions and I get 5 * 34.00 + 5 * 7.60. If 2 or 3 comes then only the second bet is successful and therefore I receive 5 * 7.60 (which corresponds to 3.80 net performance).
To get back to outright's suggestion, Sainz is sure to have a problem finding a team and having to change coach too (for financial reasons - Citroen did not want to pay Moya). He has also reached the production age (41 + anymore) and is not considered a top player. However my personal opinion is that it is not for spitting. He is a great driver with great experience, he is a good athlete, he drives a good and fast car and most importantly he knows how to get to the points with points and he does not give up easily and does not crash his car at the first opportunity. Terrible proof to Monte Carlo that despite temporarily missing the third place he didn't give up, he fought it and pressed Martin and managed to get it back. With the new scoring system it can collect enough points and get into the top three of the championship final. So I plan to put 10 units in Sainz each way for the championship (overall 20 units), the issue is if the performance goes up if Sainz does not go well in the next race. I will come back to the topic on Thursday 6 / 2 / 2003 along with suggestions for the Swedish rally. I update post outright respectively
Profile
The Swedish rally is described by locals as the rally against winter. This is because at the point and season it is usually the Arctic winter with a lot of snow and temperatures well below zero. 1960 first appeared and as it is easy to imagine only Swedes and Finns win it. When conditions are good (ie very snow and fluffy) the rally is very spectacular and fast. The tire companies have come out with rows of snow-tailed nails (2 or 5 millimeters) that give good traction (perhaps better than other rails) and WRC cars fly in the snow. For even better grip, tires are used tight and high, which increases the pressure on the tire tread and nails grip better. The roads are also carved between snowbanks and experienced drivers use them (falling over them with the back of the car) as reflectors to facilitate turns. Of course, the team technicians do not get too excited when they start the engine at -15. Arctic temperatures also make it difficult for cars elsewhere (such as frost freezers, frozen snow ducts, etc.). If it does not have much snow then there are also sections with clean soil that destroys the tire nails and disrupts traction on later snow points. If the weather is very good for days then there is no snow and the race is canceled (as 1990 did). The rally headquarters are located in Karlstad in northwestern Sweden but most of the routes and service parks are around the small town of Hagfors 80km north so that snow is more and more likely.
The rally consists (classically) of 3 days (legs) and 17 special stages. The race starts on Friday 7/2 and ends on Sunday 9/2. According to the program it covers 1939 km, 387 on special and 1552 on roads to and from the special and checkpoints. Longer special Granberget (SS3 & 7) 44km while shorter Hagfors sprint (1 & 2) 1.8 km.
Several snowfall and arctic temperatures have been reported in the Hagfors area over the last week. Temperatures from –5 to –15 (day) are expected for the Rally RC, a very good weather for the rally.
Prehistory
2002: Gronholm with Peugeot, Rovanpera with Peugeot, Sainz with Ford.
2001: Rovanpera with Peugeot, Radstrom with Mitsubishi (Carisma GT not WRC), Sainz with Ford.
2000: Gronholm with Peugeot, Makinen with Mitsubishi, C.McRae with Ford.
Today's drivers have:
Gronholm 2 wins (2002, 2000).
Makinen 3 wins (1999, 1998, 1996) and two second places.
Rovanpera 1 win (2001) and a second place finish.
Eriksson 2 wins (1997, 1995).
Radstrom 1 win (1994) and second place.
Sainz 4 second and two third places.
C.McRae a second and two third places.
For manufacturers over the last decade:
Peugeot has three consecutive wins (2000-2002).
Subaru has a 1997 win.
Ford has some creeps in the trio.
Mitsubishi, although not the protagonist for the last two years, has a good record with 4 wins at 1998-9 and 1995-6.
Tires: Subaru uses Pirelli while others use Michelin.
Latest News
Mitsubishi does not participate in the race.
Suggestions
The odds are that the bets made by the betting offices are sad. Indicative averages: Gronholm 1.57, Rovanpera 5.00, others 11.00 and above.
My opinion is that Gronholm has 40 +% chance of winning it but the best performance I found is 1.61 which means over 55% chance. So there is certainly no value to Gronholm's performance though in my opinion he is the most likely winner. Not even Rovanpera's performance makes me happy. I look with interest at the Sainz case that glorifies victory to break the Scandinavian domination (13.00). I also consider the cases of Makinen, Solberg, McRae (respectively 15.00, 13.00, 15.00). It seems to me that out of the 30 units I had planned for the race, I would throw a dozen at risky bets and nothing else.
I'll be back with more new and final suggestions on Thursday 6 / 2 / 2003.
Outright for the championship
My frustration is also great because Gronholm's performance for the championship has remained stable around 1.60 despite Monte Carlo's 0 degrees.
An interesting case for the championship is Sainz's performance on William Hill. Despite Monte Carlo's third position, the bureau has upgraded Sainz's performance to 34.00 (by 26.00) which it does Attractive is a bet on each way.
What does each way mean (1 / 5 odds, 1-3 positions). If I bet 5 units on Sainz in 34.00 odds each way it means I place 2 bets with total 2 * 5 units:
1 .-> 5 units in Sainz's victory at odds of 34.00.
2 .-> 5 units in the conquest by Sainz of one of the first three places at odds of 7.60. 7.60 results from the following formula: ((34.00-1) / 5) +1.
This means that if Sainz comes first I have two correct predictions and I get 5 * 34.00 + 5 * 7.60. If 2 or 3 comes then only the second bet is successful and therefore I receive 5 * 7.60 (which corresponds to 3.80 net performance).
To get back to outright's suggestion, Sainz is sure to have a problem finding a team and having to change coach too (for financial reasons - Citroen did not want to pay Moya). He has also reached the production age (41 + anymore) and is not considered a top player. However my personal opinion is that it is not for spitting. He is a great driver with great experience, he is a good athlete, he drives a good and fast car and most importantly he knows how to get to the points with points and he does not give up easily and does not crash his car at the first opportunity. Terrible proof to Monte Carlo that despite temporarily missing the third place he didn't give up, he fought it and pressed Martin and managed to get it back. With the new scoring system it can collect enough points and get into the top three of the championship final. So I plan to put 10 units in Sainz each way for the championship (overall 20 units), the issue is if the performance goes up if Sainz does not go well in the next race. I will come back to the topic on Thursday 6 / 2 / 2003 along with suggestions for the Swedish rally. I update post outright respectively
