Value, the big bet of the gambler

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blizzard

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30 Nov 2012
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We have found that not only is the definition of value misused by players (small and bad) but mainly that few understand that betting logic is working properly.

I explain everything here and I will add that to be understood by as many people as possible can understand ... everything is explained logically and with mathematics

1) - Value is a specific performance at any given time of the two that has a match, which sets a percentage - probability of being verified which is lower than the actual odds of the match for that point.
Simply put, if you bet on such points many times, you are more likely to make money than you have to lose ...
a) It doesn't matter which team bets the most wins, the return is up, down, sure bets or whatever.

2) - The smaller the rake the higher the value ... ideally the 0 rake because there is the highest possible value in all cases and surely one of your 2 options will have value.
a) When a performance drops, it does not mean it has value, it may never have,
b) A sure bet performance may not have value, one of the 2s being fake. of limited edition coke or whatever, and the second one has no value.

3) THE VALUE OF THE GAME IS DETERMINED BY THE WORLD TO PLAY AND THE MASS AND QUALITY thereof ... here is the most serious point, and few have understood it because few have betting logic and the ability to verify mathematics at least a little.
a) When people play enormous and huge amounts of money and value, the bookmaker and every mediator cannot interfere seriously with returns and value.
b) When people play small amounts, then the coke. or good players, and in general any mediator can change odds and value more easily.
c) When the percentage of good players is high, the value can be easily changed by them and reduced or lost ...
d) When the percentage of bad players - mass is high, the value will jump and nobody will control it ...

In a FEW words, we play great games with 0 rake, for more value, which one cannot stop ... always counting on the mass playing at the end and not with it, and we also have the assurance that no one will limit us,
They all have mathematical and logical proofs, which I will put here for information so as not to get lost and repeat again ....


---------------

1) Simple Mathematical Basic Betting Problem ....
Here is an example that few players have the ability to understand and process today, both as a starting point and as proof of the enormous problem of Andrea Papandreou's education that literally detracted from children's critical application of parroting and paranoia.

1) The first bet started in the village ... the Vlachs put beans on which cow would give birth first green or red and gave them to the president.

2) The president wrote them down, telling them every morning how many beans were in the green and how many in the red cow and how many beans his percentage was,

3) Smart players looked at the laughs, listened to the moans, and mainly looked at what beans each had to see how much risk they would take and if it was worth it ... the stupid ones did more simple things like when they were gutted and how much her belly .... the good ones were winning.

4) In the big bets they came from the surrounding villages and the town for the festival and they too ... there was a loss and it was a chance for every citizen to win, not just the good to win,

5) The mayor used to say don't play limit you, don't waste all your money on guests and don't come back, get the value I get too.

6) This problem could have been solved in the old days because they had applied logic ... but they understood that they had to go against the mass, and it was worth the money ....
Today kids can't understand it and solve it ... they will tell you that mass and big fights are of no value, the 0 rake is a disaster, it will limit, and other things that in no case can and to explain reasonably

blizzard

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30 Nov 2012
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The logical explanations and definitions for betting and value bets were given on 1.2.3.4 ... if there is any disagreement to hear it to add sources or mathematical examples.

The conclusion just below them .... for proof I started with a simple first 1 bet example)
Anyone who does not understand the simple mathematical logic of the example, to tell me to explain it, will add it by editing it all together.
Only if you understand the simple, you can understand the least confused.

ΥΓ
Extra explanation ...
Visitors from the city and other villages do not have much knowledge of these cows nor the way animals are generally raised, so they will put many beans in the wrong cows than the villagers would. eg 20 kilos of beans above the green blossom which is more inflated, this is what their knowledge tells them.

The villagers who have seen it, see many beans in green and know that their beans will be great if they go to red because they know from animals and they think the beans are wrong.
But they haven't gone from 2 kilos of beans to red, so the green laugh remains of great value.
Even those who have 40 kilos of beans do not want to risk much because you never know what will happen and need to eat, but because they do so they lose value because they give many beans to the poor and in the end they will win ....
So they put in 1-2 kilos that are durable because they see a huge value and they stop, they don't affect the result very much.

This is what we have to do, to play against the visitors and together with the villagers. the bigger the celebration, and the more people unrelated to cows, the better it is to play, always against them and according to our specific knowledge of the specific cows that the mass does not have
If you go smart with the villager and play in small markets with him, thinking you will work, you are more likely to get it
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GUSA12

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22 Nov 2018
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In my humble opinion, without my knowledge of value betting pumps and soft companies' mistakes against Sharp.
When Sbo estimates an 2.1 match
And Sportingbet has 2.5 I value it, I honor it.
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blizzard

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30 Nov 2012
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In my humble opinion, without my knowledge of value betting pumps and soft companies' mistakes against Sharp.
When Sbo estimates an 2.1 match
And Sportingbet has 2.5 I value it, I honor it.
This is the result .... here we are talking about the source, but if we simply understand how the bet works, we can understand exactly what the sharpshooter does and what the softball does and why
They have different behaviors depending on the size of the market and the wagering time .... you can earn on average but their behaviors are different on a case by case basis.

In our simple example, the president who simply counts beans is soft h sharp;
We are not talking about corporate mistakes but behaviors that ALL have an explanation if you understand what logic is, if you are looking for genuine coke errors such as eating leg,

Here, in our simple example, some people think that the value was made by the mistake of the bookmaker, others that there is no value .... the truth is that the value came out of the way the bet works
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blizzard

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30 Nov 2012
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Personally I would prefer the mathematical proofs, that is, verifying your theory through a sufficient number of bets with 0% rake.
This cannot be done for many reasons .....
1) If someone gives you a lot of their own winning winnings, it can't make your mind work ... you may believe but you won't understand more.
Knowledge comes from doubt and control with reason, against the parrot and the authoritative ... you seek the upside.

2) It's not a simple guy to write him somewhere to follow as most people want ... You have to understand the logic to adjust, if you don't understand you will do it,

3) a) I have shown you mathematically that if you play 0 luck you DON'T lose ..... right?
b) I have shown you mathematically that one of the 2 values ​​always has value in 0 rake ..... right?
c) I ask you to understand mathematically and reasonably that the mass increases the value instead of eliminating it ....
d) And after that, because you have to go against what he plays.
If you can't figure this out, what else does it mean?

And suppose I show you the results, which can always be the product of luck ... what exactly will I gain, and what will you?
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FunBet

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12 Mar 2018
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Knowledge comes from doubt and control with reason, against the parrot and the authoritative ... you seek the upside.
For the time being, I do not seek knowledge but the motivation to deal with your theory. The motivation will be to give me the mathematical proof, that is, the result verification.

blizzard

Active Member
30 Nov 2012
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But I do not seek to give a parrot effect to people who do not seek knowledge .... we said it is unfair to those who try, it does not motivate me to help such people, it does not help the person who can be destroyed if he does not first knowledge.

Here's a little more detailed proof of the value here in 0 rake .... I'll add it to the original post,

1) If you are playing for 0 luck you DO NOT lose ....
2) One of the 2 values ​​always has value in 0 rake .....
3) The large mass of unknowing worlds increases the value instead of eliminating it ....
4) If you go against the mass in what it plays you win ....


Evidence
1) For any 0 rake performance, (eg 2.0 -2.0) the winnings are the same regardless of the actual value of the match (eg 20% ace and 80% double) if you play in luck.

The one who will play 50 times Ace and 50 times double in luck will win 10 at 50 at Ace and 40 at 50 at double ... 50 at 100 at 2.0. and not lose.
(this applies with every performance and every value)

If one plays ONLY aces, or by simply drawing between points, one doesn't really play to chance ... but with a kind of choice for the home side or giving a big payoff, the random choice is always based on performance.
Mathematics can be profitable if the stadiums are of greater value, or if the stakes are of greater value,

2) If in an 2.0 - 2.0 rendering, if the ace has 1.99 value, 2 will have 2.01 ...
The odds must always be at 100% and the 0 rake is also 100%, so any difference even 1% gives the opposite value.
Below we will see why it is almost impossible to have a balanced zero value at 2 points.

3) a) For any real value, eg if Ajax has 3.0 value. there must be 2 amounts to balance ... ie 200 euros to Paok (1x) and 100 euros to Ajax (2pl)

b) When the mass enters the game, with little knowledge the chances of it falling precisely to zero are negligible ... it will go up or down, (eg 1.7 instead of 3.0)
* this requires basic betting logic, and the assumption that the world won't exactly fall is the hardest piece of proof because people who lack the ability to put mathematics into practice can't do what mathematical assumption has been taught so expensive to school.

So if we go beyond that ... the proof from here on out is easy. For every player who bets on Ajax, there has to be another who bets on PAOK which has zero value,
The more mass players bet on Ajax, the more they have to find themselves playing Paok with zero value,
The former is mathematically likely to accumulate huge sums, the latter is mathematically unlikely to accumulate at least a small percentage.

So the performance will change. ... will go to a point where there is value in pulling people to play PAOK.
The greater the power of the mass, the greater the value, and the greater resistance Paok will create to stop the performance from falling.


4) if we are not sure of our abilities in a race, we must always follow the opposite of mass ... reason of the above mechanism have lost value volume ratio.
In betting otherwise, 29 laundry makers have lost value, they always have one, always the one that fits in with the better and the better, here's the essence and difference of betting from other systems such as elections, joint decisions , the wars. and that we have learned in our lives that generally people are right and earn
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goal2

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25 Apr 2016
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Here's a little more detailed proof of the value here in 0 rake .... I'll add it to the original post,
1) If you are playing for 0 luck you DO NOT lose ....
2) One of the 2 values ​​always has value in 0 rake .....
3) The large mass of unknowing worlds increases the value instead of eliminating it ....
4) If you go against the mass in what it plays you win ....
How many matches do you play on average each month and how much money do you bet on each match? Tell me about the stand.

blizzard

Active Member
30 Nov 2012
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How many matches do you play on average each month and how much money do you bet on each match? Tell me about the stand.
This is another issue .... the big races that have 0 rake are few.

Another reason that practitioners who play in 300 markets a day, for example, will not be interested in the least of the few great games and have great value,

If you play a few races a lot of money you increase your risk, you can have a large series of losers and lose both profit and capital .... so you will eat the profits after the start, or very small amounts.

Hy
I only play great matches ... details are not relevant and I can't even say, however I always choose one team that will give me profit and another that will lose
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blizzard

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It doesn't matter in the first place ... change the debate etc ... let's do a market based trading or whatever, and in the end instead of having 2 euro profit on each outcome I make 6 on the one hand and 2 on the other on the other hand, it doesn't matter.

But never large amounts of risk because you never know, and 100 results can spoil 80 if you are unlucky for a period.

ΥΓ
Here we are dealing with a problem of rationality which, in itself, should be of interest to betting players and to seek out for their knowledge ....
The appetite for knowledge should be the one that brought them to the bet and not the thirst for parroting and copying how to make a lot of money from the mistakes of the bookmaker, there should be no negative mood for those looking for the essence of the bet.

goal2

Well-Known Member
25 Apr 2016
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[
It doesn't matter in the first place ... change the debate etc ... let's do a market based trading or whatever, and in the end instead of having 2 euro profit on each outcome I make 6 on the one hand and 2 on the other on the other hand, it doesn't matter.

But never large amounts of risk because you never know, and 100 results can spoil 80 if you are unlucky for a period.

ΥΓ
Here we are dealing with a problem of rationality which, in itself, should be of interest to betting players and to seek out for their knowledge ....
The appetite for knowledge should have been the one that brought them to the bet and not the thirst for parrots and to make a lot of money so that I could now be educated and have so many negative feelings towards me,
It has and provides meaning and does not change the discussion of what I asked. After all, as if you are not playing great as it is a risk, you will never know if you fall into the negative. I will tell you why you do not play great.
Because you are not sure if you are playing correctly with the trophy you mentioned. If you were 100% sure you were playing correctly, you would have the feeling of victory at the moment your card was accepted and not when the race was over. it was mathematically proven that in the long run you would achieve through your strategy a yield of 8% or 10%, then the only thing you would have to do would be to follow it faithfully and without any fear of making it as big as possible. don't tell me the classic that you don't have with large wine everybody, because I shall answer you that The cellar created if there is the appropriate strategy.

blizzard

Active Member
30 Nov 2012
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And don't tell me now the classic that we don't all have a great wine cellar, because I will answer that the wine cellar is created if there is the right strategy.
Of course you also create the cellar, and the cellar is lost together when you feel confident raising the money, if you want to cover the damage, or whatever ...
(they don't put a limit on you, for those who were afraid of that)
This is something that I have accepted to be beyond human capability .... maybe 3% can understand it, but no one can control it,
Maybe if you get it 3-4 times, an 3% of 3% can make up your mind.

The capital is for businessmen, for trading or whatever, the great value of great racing is to eat the money and make your own plate, the very small risk

goal2

Well-Known Member
25 Apr 2016
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Of course you also create the cellar, and the cellar is lost together when you feel confident raising the money, if you want to cover the damage, or whatever ...
(they don't put a limit on you, for those who were afraid of that)
This is something that I have accepted to be beyond human capability .... maybe 3% can understand it, but no one can control it,
Maybe if you get it 3-4 times, an 3% of 3% can make up your mind.

The capital is for businessmen, for trading or whatever, the great value of great racing is to eat the money and make your own plate, the very small risk
The kava is lost altogether if you want to cover the damage; Yes, with the trap you let go of meaning you are playing, you will be lost. Capital management is called the "antidote". This will set you a small percentage of your kava to bet on each bet, depending on the value it has. the yield..This will protect the cellar, because you have as many gendemes if you play eg an 2% to 5% of kava in your bet, you will not be able to consistently bet on 20-50 lost bets ... The losses will be covered by the value of the payoff and not the stakes increase when you lose. every time 2.20 returns while the real odds will be for 1.80, then the maths will take care of them for you to keep up and continue to profit, since every time you get paid you will be given 22 instead of 18 or 220 instead of 180 anti 2200.

blizzard

Active Member
30 Nov 2012
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Can you close that too? It has nothing to offer other than the previous one.
First of all it offers knowledge that few have .....
Secondly, whoever doesn't want to understand has no job in betting ....

The only reason you are betting is if you are interested in knowledge .... local like these, or knowledge of the racing side,
All the rest are ticks that do well and exist as long as they make money, but don't break us when we have clear betting issues.
The kava is lost altogether if you want to cover the damage; Yes, with the trap you let go of meaning you are playing, you will be lost. Capital management is called the "antidote". This will set you a small percentage of your kava to bet on each bet, depending on the value it has. the performance ...
This is the theory ... practice says that even 100.000 to have a cellar, and 500 euro max bet when the value is great as you said, again it is impossible to beat the greed, the need to report, I do not know how to say but the cellar will be lost.

The good players are the ones who lose their liquor, which can be their fortunes not only winnings, very rarely a bad player has such fear,

ΥΓ
Anyway this is another issue that I have no intention of discussing since it is not something that can be addressed .... just the one who understands what I am saying and playing in limitless value markets like the big 0 races, let him have a little mind to at least understand and not copy asking for my roaches, and then wish he ate them and not make them wine cellar ΄:)
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blizzard

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30 Nov 2012
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haha, to start correcting their "mistakes" and waiting for some celebration afterwards !!!!

Sit down to understand what we are saying here if you are interested in space and want to know how it works out of real interest, not to get hired somewhere.
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