Value, the big bet of the gambler

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The mistake you make is that you assume, because I do not know, that the company will make the mistakes equally up and down, ie it will be + -3%. So you in luck, one will be + and one -, so you will approach 0. Nobody knows that! Not even the company.
That's why we often end up seeing aces with odds of 2,00 and in one year have a 60% appearance.
You are also making the mistake of trying to explain the phenomenon by running a simulation. Do you know the Monty Hall problem? They ran a program there for simulation, but to prove the obvious, the theory, not the other way around.
NOTHING like that ... the theory is valid and I proved it with 3-4 different logics, just here we do the step above with practical proof.
(your theory is based only on "it's crazy to have a way of not losing by gambling" in skill games ... and yet it's true, we are not machines and we make mistakes)


I have no restrictions and conditions, I put 1000 odds and I will transfer there some real ones, you can set me the preconditions of the experiment in detail to do it, so that you can see the result.

1 euro bet on 1000 odds, I will get them from Opap, I can make them random if you want it is just more difficult, and also for results that will be random or whatever you want, for example to be the real odds results or to have some relationship you will tell me.
(I can put them randomly on opap, so they change and the results do not)

Whatever you want to see in practice what is obvious and with the theory ... you just have to tell me what to do so that you do not say later that it is not right or to see that you are right !!!
 
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Do you work well for us with offenses, do you also ask for the change? I do not say? Do you know how many years I have been a Moderator? 14 whole years. Do you see how many messages I have? 40 thousand and you tell me you do not do yesterday?

I have seen so much in this forum that you have not seen even 0.5 will you come to teach us?

Look, we try to impose order in every possible way without banning people, I wrote it and I am rewriting it. You try to impose your own either with the issue that was locked that whatever you do does not open to what I said. You stand in the corner and chase the fault of FairPlay in this case to do as a small child "to see what he did punish him", you opened a topic yesterday that was not only accidental but was a sidekick. These 14 years I tell you countless hours here in the goat chewing tarama? You are too young to tell me what I will do but also for anyone else to tell me what I will do, you try. I do not say? Do you know how many years I have been a Moderator? 14 whole years. Do you see how many messages I have? 40 thousand and you tell me you do not do yesterday?

I have seen so much in this forum that you have not seen even 0.5 will you come to teach us?

Look, we try to impose order in every possible way without banning people, I wrote it and I am rewriting it. You try to impose your own either with the issue that was locked that whatever you do does not open to what I said. You stood in the corner and chased the fault of FairPlay in this case to do as a small child "to see what he did punish him", you opened a topic yesterday that was not only accidental but was a sidekick. These 14 years I tell you countless hours here in the goat chewing tarama? You are too young or anyone to tell me what I will do, we try in every way to integrate the people in the forum.
I told you Look ahead, open a topic, play a game, you stayed in the past. The issue was deleted after a decision of the administration, if you want, charge me. Unfortunately you did not do for here I hope you have a better time elsewhere and find people who will suit you. Do not bother to register again, the nickname will be deleted for me, it is 2 clicks for you, the whole process is time consuming.

The admin is BetLaden so great and hassle. Have fun


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In the end, my intuition was not wrong.

I did the simulation with a program on the computer, not excel.
The data I gave him was the following:

-Two odds, one for over and one for under which reflect the real chances of a match. Something that of course no one knows, but to do the test, you have to accept them as you accept that KINO has 80 balls and draws.
-Two returns that are the forecasts of the company with zero rake. These odds changed their percentages, simulating the company's mistake. In short, I raised the rates randomly, but more or less proportionally. For example, if the real one was 1.50-3.00, then the randomness of the company might have been 1.60-2.80 or 1.40-3.20. The only thing I cared about was the percentage error.
-A random draw for each match to get the under-over. Of course, the odds affected the draw each time, as the small odds got a bigger share in the odds.
-A random selection of the player, regardless of the percentage. He simply chose randomly, whether he had an odds of 8 or 1.10.

Results in 100.000 runs each time:

When the company had identical returns to the real one, then the loss was very close to 0. Negligible. Eg 150 losses in 100.000 games.
However, as the errors grew, they deviated, that is, the random play took you out a lot. at a deviation of 5%.
What I want to show (and I showed I think): Companies are likely to make mistakes. They are probably making mistakes. When you see companies that give 1.80 and the other 2.00, someone makes a mistake and even fat.
Corollary: No one really knows the odds. If anyone wants to accept those of the company, fine. However, I always see afterwards, in 300-400 matches, mistakes that exceed 10%.

So, do not believe the cop and 50-50. Look around you, think that it is Wednesday, the columbariums are closed, everyone drinks Amstel 0% ...
 
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I may get tired, but I feel the need to write some things.

Personally, I think the forum is being attacked by a group of users who support specific interests (obviously one or more betting companies).


I consider that their purposes are:

a) to advertise a specific betting company

b) to disorient the forum reader, showing ways of betting that will lead the player to failure.

c) to morally legitimize the habit of betting companies to throw limits on players, when they realize that in the long run they will make a profit from them.

d) to demystify well-known and proven in practice, profitable ways of betting.

e) to eventually lead by their attitude to their exclusion from the forum, so as to promote their exclusion as an attempt to silence and therefore as a means of justifying themselves and creating false impressions by the future reader (and of course to damage the prestige of the forum, at the same time).
 
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With a purely humorous mood .....

"You have made us * buns * with plenty of yeast !!!!"

Find children to be a value return
is it or is it not purely subjective? ; ;

What the hell are you eating almost 20 pages to prove - to prove what?

that in an odds eg 1,10 - 5,25 - 20,00 20,00 is worth playing
and let it be lost? and how many such 20s will eventually come out ......

______________
as, for example, someone who used to write (not here) that while he had it, for example, Asso and it came out x in 90, he left ... did he consider it a winner?
... but he went to the bucket
 
With a purely humorous mood .....

"You have made us * buns * with plenty of yeast !!!!"

Find children to be a value return
is it or is it not purely subjective? ; ;

What the hell are you eating almost 20 pages to prove - to prove what?

that in an odds eg 1,10 - 5,25 - 20,00 20,00 is worth playing
and let it be lost? and how many such 20s will eventually come out ......

______________
as, for example, someone who used to write (not here) that while he had it, for example, Asso and it came out x in 90, he left ... did he consider it a winner?
... but he went to the bucket

Lilis this is what most of us say.
The company selects 10 factors, prehistory, form, attack, headquarters, motivation and yields returns. Which are a little far from the real thing and this is proven later.
If one wants to be a dude, one has to find another variable that affects the match and it is verified, so it is close to the real odds and change the lights on the betting.
That is, as long as he can, before they limit him ...
 
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I can say that the gg in tomorrow's San Marino - Belgium paid 19,00 and now pays 5,00 ....
One that I had a while ago next to me played it 170e and now gives him a cash out 510e ...

Truth or myth?

Are there any games that perform the bets in the two meters yes or no?

I was sleeping here standing up ... now it's too late for tears ....
 
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They have just been angry to kick me out of the forum or to eat a ban, and not to hear anything .... whatever.
Maybe I said the same about bonuses etc for a profit of 50 euros per month, but I ALWAYS stressed that we must play fair ... and they do well if they cheat fraud that ask for a notary, while they also have fun when cursing the desperate, those who are worse for them the better for the right players.
No one has been angry to chase you. You are angry to support a company and to offend others at the slightest opportunity whenever you see its interests being harmed. if necessary. The shot you threw in the comment above was for me personally. Yesterday I wrote something here in the thread about a withdrawal I have pending and about the notary stamp they asked me for, but I see you did not miss the opportunity to throw away your puppet by translating as you want my yesterday's comment calling me a "scammer". See here the screen with the email that the bettor thanked for my cooperation and my willingness to send them these documents they asked me, and the email from Neteller who sent me my money, and if you do not know do not speak. Oh and do not worry, the money was small, it did not affect the company's funds, as if it was not the company you work for. I can not play there at all for a long time.
 
So rightly people are cheating on you.


b.jpg
 
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I can say that the gg in tomorrow's San Marino - Belgium paid 19,00 and now pays 5,00 ....
One that I had a while ago next to me played it 170e and now gives him a cash out 510e ...
Truth or myth?
Myth...
... (After bet365 had a 10% rake when it played on the 19th)
 
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-A random selection of the player, regardless of the percentage. He simply chose randomly, whether he had an odds of 8 or 1.10.
Not so "randomly" ... did you randomize to 0 rake so that if the yield is 1.5 66% is randomly selected and if it is 3.0 33%? etc etc for each performance

This is the only term .... you play like this in luck and you do not lose in ANY market, regardless of whether there are political matches, breathalyzer, whatever the result and whatever the circumstances.

Other "coincidences" may work in practice, but it is a favorite eg small odds you did, it may be the headquarters or whatever, but they may not work because they have a choice in and not purely random play, and the choice is what brings gains or losses depending on whether it is good - bad. ;)

Make the change and the others look right to me, it will work ..., I will probably try to do it in apple script because it seems to me that it has better possibilities as you set it ... only there I am fresh, I think you will understand.
Instead, let's get rid of something ....
 
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Find children to be a value return
is it or is it not purely subjective? ; ;
Some have decided for everyone that the value falls on the odds of the 0 rake while it only exists where they play.
And they do not accept other views .... so be careful what markets you are talking about do not get involved.

Mathematically if you find a team of players who lose in the long run at 0 rake, you have found a statistical way to hit value. Or pay a tipper in early vets with proven success.

I think these are the easiest when it comes to finding value ... the first you have to do it yourself because no one sells, the second is difficult if you are alone, but also full of scammers.

I am only interested in the first, I believe it has value and if you protect the right of the substantiated opinion from mass laughter attacks, we will be helped a lot

I may get tired, but I feel the need to write some things.

Personally, I think the forum is being attacked by a group of users who support specific interests (obviously one or more betting companies).


I consider that their purposes are:

a) to advertise a specific betting company

b) to disorient the forum reader, showing ways of betting that will lead the player to failure.
ABSOLUTELY CORRECT ... to add that in every forum the same cliques that the friend describes, when they become very strong they will chase away any decent ones that they see as a risk to their interests, to continue their work, many times for years.

RULES OF PROTECTION THAT WE ALL NEED TO KNOW ... we protect each area ourselves.

1) We ALWAYS speak with evidence and logically, those who do not participate in the discussion really suspect them.
2) ALWAYS dare to challenge everything with facts, they tremble at change because it spoils their work, there are no acceptable and unacceptable products, gaming systems or anything.
3) We NEVER make laughs en masse, and we do not underestimate the other without a real contradiction, whoever has such regular tactics to suspect him, is the basic weapon.
4) We never trust the masses and the popular rage, a righteous one dissolves with receipts 100 fraudsters, 100 angry accounts who do not write anything essential are suspects ,.
5) Do not be afraid to defend what we think is right, players or companies, the cliques work and blackmail slander until they are paid.
6) We try to endure the humiliation and talk only about the subject we want, their proofs hurt 1000 times, if you find them and you play their game.
 
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Perfect, it gets better and better. Since I am thinking of cutting the subscription to Netflix. How many episodes does he still have ??
Fully agreeing with the accusations against him now surpasses me. Perfect !!!

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Perfect, it gets better and better. Since I am thinking of cutting the subscription to Netflix. How many episodes does he still have ??
Fully agreeing with the accusations against him now surpasses me. Perfect !!!
Where did you see someone accusing me ??? First of all, if they did it shortly after the ban with the baths, and what the mods said, they would either eat it themselves, or it would be like saying here we are in command, we call and we do not mind, we will blame you until you leave like this or otherwise.

I think they said some general rules that I added maybe other children who ate ban were in mind, because the place is full of gossip, all the internet and every forum ... I follow all the rules of moral behavior that I described and offer, so if we all do it we will be fine.

ΥΓ
I do not think there are so many people after all to say about a person who offers and always speaks with facts and always about the right thing ... all the more so at the specific moment !!! they and the forum would be completely undressed if he kept them,
 
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Hmmm, yes, maybe. I probably would not have understood well what funbet wrote.
Maybe he was photographing other guys on the forum, betladen, ertzan, fairplay, goal2, who knows. Enigmatic anyway ...

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Hmmm, yes, maybe. I probably would not have understood well what funbet wrote.
Maybe he was photographing other guys on the forum, betladen, ertzan, fairplay, goal2, who knows. Enigmatic anyway ...

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They have eaten with a lot of people as I saw last time, I do not know why I do not care .... I have no idea what interests they play from both sides, they just ALL have to do what I do, and follow the rules of ethics.

ΥΓ
If anyone says about me after all, I tore them up in the way I tear down every irrelevant non-existent theory they have in mind. do not care ... you stop provoking because that is in the rules I described

Do you agree with the experiment I did and the proof of gambling?
Do you agree that mass affects value?
Do you have an idea or can you help with predictions? without pressure and a lot of searching, you look good.
And if I'm wrong somewhere, do not hesitate or be ashamed to say it, do not be afraid to make a mistake, I will not make fun of you
 
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Personally, the only experiment and proof that I will accept is to open a trend and give forecasts to the big markets that you mention. If you are positive after a large sample I will say a thousand bravos.
No, I do not agree that the masses affect the value of the large markets you are referring to.
I try to help with predictions, other times I succeed, other times I do not. I do not guarantee any profit nor do I oblige anyone to follow, everyone judges for himself.
Can you help with predictions? Have you done it so far?

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There are dozens of trends here with predictions, many of them green and especially from the kids you accuse of making fun of you and making fun of you. I can not reach most of them but I have gained many things, both in knowledge and money. To close because I do not have time, when you offer it and you in here I will say a thousand bravos, I say it again, and believe me, not only me but all the children you accuse of making fun of you.

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Personally, the only experiment and proof that I will accept is to open a trend and give forecasts to the big markets that you mention. If you are positive after a large sample I will say a thousand bravos.
No, I do not agree that the masses affect the value of the large markets you are referring to.
Why do not you agree if you allow? in my last example I showed that for only 40 euros in mass, it takes 70 euros for professionals to drop the value to the 20% you disagree with;
The example with the cop we were discussing before.

For the evidence that the mass affects the lotto and prop that I put and are from scientists disagree; is just the 0 rake different?

If you go to a university and tell them to bet on the weather tomorrow, and you go to a meteorologist conference to do the same, they will have the same result; if you join them the same;

Have you made any of your own thoughts to share with us? did you read something somewhere? anything to support your faith because so far I have heard only a general theory of chaos with few things.

ΥΓ
For the predictions, you have to understand that these are only done in small markets ... there you will find a tipster with 500 accounts to test who will be lucky, and a good one that I limited.

In 0 rake there is no limit, the good ones just play their money, you will not see fraudsters, no one will give predictions or because he is afraid of any criminal, or because he does not care about assistance, or because he does not like to help idiots who do not understand η η η
 
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