N.D. - K.K.E. Handicap

Victory margin New Democracy - K.K.E.

   The time has come for most of the world, especially the elderly (fortunately I don't feel old yet) to sit in front of the televisions and watch their own "Champions League". And after every result that will come that they expected it regardless of whether it is true or not because it is their moment and they deserve it.

The first Sunday of the elections (I think it is more likely that the likeable Asteras Tripoli will win the championship next year than that we will not have 2^η electoral process) is a bit difficult for betting companies and they go "a bit blindly". Not that they don't know what is happening to them of course, just maybe in 1-2 cases they have made some mistakes. And we are there to find them.

The New Democracy (ND) is given in Over/Under percentages, from 33.25% to 34.75%, in almost all betting. With Over always being a favourite. This makes me believe that none of them calculates that the current ruling party will get lower than 33.20%. Element No.1.

The KKE in almost all betting is given in Over/Under percentages, from 6.00% to 6.50%. With Over always being a favourite. This leads me to believe that none of them expect the current ruling party to get below 5.95%. Element No.2.

The K.K.E. it has rallied enough and it seems but not enough to go from 5.3% in 2019 to +2% points (we are talking about a lot of votes around 100.000) so I think their ceiling is 7%. Element No.3.

So if we take the three (3) above basic elements and say that "theoretically":

• ND gets the lowest percentage, i.e.: 33.20%
• The K.K.E. the highest percentage of which is: 6.9%
• It gives us a difference of 33.2-6.9=26,3%

But here we got the worst scenario for one party and the best for the other. If we take the opposite scenarios or identical then the rate will never fall below 26.5%

With this conclusion I come to the conclusion that ND can cover the handicap given to her at prices of -26.5% and I will take it.

PS If you find it at -27.5% it is still worth it but a much, much bigger risk.