Value bet, bet for smart players

Value bet, bet for smart players

from Skandinavos / BETTING GUIDE / Monday, July 25 2022 09: 15

Anyone who plays a bet will have heard or read about the so-called "value bet". But what is this definition and how well do they know about it?

The term "value bet", therefore, refers to the strictly mathematical way of betting. When you bet on "value", in value, you do not pay attention to criteria such as score, form, prehistory, injuries,

With conventional betting, you first find an item you believe, then check if the other factors (form, score, racing news) match and bet.

Value betting requires another way of thinking. In fact, it's the opposite of conventional betting. It does not refer to the choice of teams, but to the choice of odds! This means that you do not have to believe in the team that puts your money. Since the odds given are better than the strict mathematical probability of verification, the team of your choice has "value".

Value is a mathematical value that evaluates performance: It is an index that captures the player's expected profit. He uses points odds and odds only, assuming that all the "peculiarities" of each match (eg score, team form, etc.) have already been captured in the odds. The value of a point is given by the formula:

where probability is the subjective evaluation of the probability of the particular point occurring.

In other words, when the value is greater than 1, then we have a Value Bet, otherwise it is not, of course, this does not mean it will not be verified. Simply, mathematics does not value the risk someone takes to bet it.


Required highlights

1. Big favorites are rarely good points for valuebets because of the fear of book for big payouts if they win. Major teams such as Manchester United, Milan, Barcelona, ​​Real Madrid, Bayern, etc. are rarely given at good prices because the book knows that most of the audience will bet on them.

2. As a result of this, real value is often in the form of outsiders. Books know that players are more likely to bet on favorites and therefore prices are generally higher on their opponents.

3. Patience is the key to success for anyone who bets on value bets. Do not change your strategy if you lose several times in a row. The central point is that when you win, your net win will exceed your total losses.

4. Valuebetting could be a good strategy at the beginning and end of an era. The results are often more unpredictable in the start and last quarter of the tournaments and smart players will have to take advantage of this "event" by adopting the strategy for value betting early in the autumn and late spring.



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+1 Kavajim
Somewhere you get confused.
On the one hand you say that in the value bet definition, absences, form, prehistory etc. are not the role, and on the other hand you say that probability is in the numerator, it is subjective.
2 concepts do not match each other.
If it was a fixed one, it would be objective. So, being subjective and agreeing to this, it has to do with how each one judges the term of LIKELIHOOD.
And this concept is judged by all the above, namely absences, prehistory, scoring, etc.

Conclusion: How clever-minded you are and how skilled you are (and how profitable), 100% is related to how much you can objectively capture, the subjective definition of probability.
And when this is better than books, then the well-known winning result comes along.

As far as the value and low returns are concerned, I disagree, because most of the time there is where you will find it. It may not be to the huge extent of 1 of great performance, but certainly many times with lower profit returns.
30 Sep 2022
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