I close with a 2nd match from the CL qualifiers. For the same match, jmarkog has written an article and I completely agree with his choice and personally I have thrown a 60% in the bet that I will suggest and a 40% in the over.
The host is the champion team of Bosnia and is currently playing with Maribor, the champion of Slovenia. The 2 teams may indeed have a difference in capacity but it is not as big either as their prices reflect or as the score of the 1st match shows (4-1). The host for a whole half was better and led 0-1 and in the replay collapsed conceding 4 goals.
Betting on a team that conceded 4 goals in 1 half is not the wisest, but I will rely on 3 elements.
The first is that the guest has almost passed and even scores even 1 goal and certainly if the minutes pass and she has achieved her goal, she will play more and more defensively, maybe making some changes.
The second element is the headquarters that in such small and medium groups play a very important role. As Maribor gained strength and scored 2, just as easily with the help of the people can the hosts score and if not qualify, at least fight it.
The third element is that the whole team and the coach believe in qualifying in their statements and will do everything for it