There is all the data to chase the surprise. Dortmund has physical and psychological fatigue after Thursday's storm at Liverpool, a few days later he's the semi-final Cup with Hertha in Berlin and the league is essentially indifferent. Touchel has relaxed a few key players in the derby with Schalke last week, so surely something similar will do today. Hamburg has a much higher score and is among the few teams that have won Dortmund this year (3-1 in the first round). I keep X2 on 3.45.