I win and pass straight to a bet with enough value and I immediately explain why:
Souza is given by all books as an outsider but I think it should be at least a marginal favorite. (maybe more). So 1,7-1,8 values are the ones that should have been at least. This is because:
1) Souza comes from a similar tournament in France where it ended up as the final against Becker who was eliminated there at 1 just around the corner. In fact he lost to Mathieu with 2-0 (2 TBs), and shortly the Frenchman was defeated by Souza with 2-1 sets.
2) In this tournament he eliminated several big names as the final with the biggest, Monfils who is not joking in such indoor hard tournaments of his homeland. So he eliminated 2 Frenchmen but also Sisjling and Dodig, so 2 other big names. The fact that he lost in the final to Goffin, does not say much, since the Belgian is one of the 3-4 most trained players of the ATP since the beginning of summer !!!
3) In indoor hard tournaments, he has created a fairly positive streak since the beginning of 2013 where he entered the top 60-70, and thus has a better record than tomorrow's opponent.
4) The surface at Kuala Lumbur is slightly slower than the other iindoor hard, which favors more Portuguese clay playing.
5) But what is most important for the bet and gives the greatest value to 2,1 is that Souza is last year's winner in Kuala Lumbur and so here he has to defend many points and he would like as much as anything else to go far enough in this year's tournament. On the contrary, Becker, although 34 years old, is coming for his first match here in Malaysia
Prices were based on Portugal's fatigue on the France-Malaysia trip, but 4 days have passed since the Saturday match and I think they have to come upside down and there's already a lot of fall in the Ace.
However, because we have a match on H-2-H this year and Becker has won with 2-0 on the grass, I keep a small basket, although Becker then played on his favorite surface where he has his best record
At 2,1 which is the highest value at the moment, it is played on Bet8, Statusbet and Bet365