How the odds of the games come out in the bet

How the odds of the games come out in the bet

from / BETTING GUIDE / Monday, November 27 2023 08: 58

How do they get the odds of the games Bookmakers; A common question among gamblers who are either taking their first steps in the "space" (beginners), or after some time decided to take the subject seriously and began to gather basic information about it.

It is necessary to know how a performance is calculated in order to understand the mathematics that are "hidden" behind the numbers. If you get to this point, then it will be easy for you to find the right and wrong odds offered by Bookmakers.


What is the meaning of betting odds?


You will surely have noticed the differences between the odds offered by one betting site from another, or even all together. The odds will judge the profit that will go into your pocket after a successful prediction. In some it will be bigger, in some smaller, depending on who has the biggest and who has the lowest performance for an event.

It is necessary to know why there is this difference, but mainly what they really mean and how the odds are finally created by the betting.

Odds are created according to the law of probability. Thus, in a match with three odds (1X2) it is reasonable to assume that each point has a 33.3% chance of being confirmed.

In ideal conditions (theoretical level) and based on the probabilities, a set of matches between Barcelona and Real Madrid should have the following form in perfect balance:

Barcelona win: 3.00 (33.3% probability)

Draw: 3.00 (33.3% probability)

Real Madrid victory: 3.00 (33.3% probability)

You do not need to tell us that there is no way you can ever see the above example in practice from a bet.

Bookmakers have their own criteria, which "adjust" the odds to their final form (and is what the player faces before betting his money).

The criteria:

  • Team capacity
  • Marks
  • Team form
  • The home and away image
  • The tradition between them
  • The weather conditions
  • The absences

After processing, the yields change according to the conditions. In the example we started one possible development could be the following:

Barcelona win: 2.00 (50% probability)

Draw: 3.50 (28.5% probability)

Real Madrid victory: 4.65 (21.50% probability)

Here comes the rake. the certain profit of Bookmakers, that is, whether you win or lose your bet. For this to happen, a percentage (usually from 2% to 8.5%) of the above returns must be deducted. The actual returns therefore take the following form:

Victory Barcelona: 1.90

Draw: 3.30

Real Madrid victory: 4.40

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What can change a performance?


If you do not belong to the category of beginner, you have definitely attended frequent alternations in the performance sets.

From the moment the markets open, until the start of the matches, the odds usually have a significant difference between them.

And this is due to some of the following reasons that odds compilers process:

  • Absentees: Especially now during the Covid era it has become a very common phenomenon. Teams that report cases and these are not enough to postpone the match, but they are very important to judge a match.
  • Asian market opening and betting
  • Motivation and group reporting
  • Policy of each betting: Suppose you bet a lot on a point (eg the ace of a set). Then, bookmakers will begin to gradually reduce the odds of the point, while increasing the odds of a draw and a double. This is done to entice players to bet against the ace and share the rake.


What is and what is the role of Betradar?


Η Betradar is the leading service provider in the betting industry, partnering with more than 600 bookmakers in more than 80 countries to offer all the services they need.

It basically offers to everyone betting to control its competitors in real time.

If an odds change, this change will be immediately apparent and then it is up to each betting policy to decide what to choose to do. Whether it follows or not, immediately or after a while.

But what usually happens is that if one of the big ones in the industry makes a change, the smaller bets will follow.

The Betradar odds feed is the most popular online betting site.


True And False Odds


If you want to make money by betting on football matches then I think you need to know two things. First, what the odds should be and second, where the wrong odds are most likely to be found!

The process of finding the wrong odds is not an easy task, but if you are ready to spend time studying, the result of your effort can prove to be a very good investment.


Why do the odds need to be wrong (example)?


Suppose I bet with you on the crown or letters and also that the agreed odds are 2.00. Every time we turn the coin, you have the same chance of winning or losing. Every time you win I have to pay you as much as you pay me when you had a wrong prediction. You will tell me rightly then why should I bet? Right ... there is no reason.

Now imagine that I offer you a higher yield, let's say for the sake of example, that I offer you 2.10. In this case, every time you win I pay you 11 euros, while every time you lose you pay me 10 euros. Obviously you still expect to win as often as you lose (50% chance), but this time I pay you when you win more than you do when you lose. Now there is clearly reason to bother betting against me! I firmly believe that in the above lines lies the secret of winning betting. So we have to bet on odds that are higher than they should be!

In fact of course I am not going to offer you an odds of 2.10 for a bet that has a 50% chance of winning, unless I have previously "processed" the currency, otherwise in any other case you will not be found to offer 2.10 in this bet as the calculation of the probabilities is specific and very accurate! But it is not possible to calculate with the same accuracy the correct odds in a football match! It makes sense that there are different views and for each one that is right there is one that is wrong!

This is exactly the reason why it is possible for a player to make money through betting. In order to win systematically, one must, in my opinion, come to conclusions different from those of the people who bet against, and clearly they must be right, while those of the opponents must be wrong. In other words, we should know more than what our opponent knows!


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Statistics Tipsters

  • Profit-Yield 2022
  • Profit-Yield All Time

Tipster Profit Yield
FOUNTOULAKIS +64.64 + 6.91 %
RAPTAKIS +10.44 + 6.48 %
SOLAR -1.48 -1.51%

Tipster Profit Yield
SOLAR +1367.43 + 12.44 %
RAPTAKIS +92.89 + 1.46 %
FOUNTOULAKIS -43.39 -0.52%

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