The Financial Times, through eight questions and answers, explains the current election campaign in Catalonia, which although it seems to involve the election of a new regional parliament, but in fact takes the form of a referendum on the independence of the region.
What is the special election in Catalonia this Sunday?
Apparently, the Spanish region of Catalonia simply votes for a new regional parliament that will elect only a new regional president. In political terms, however, the ballot box is much more important and interesting. A strong pro-independence camp has characterized the current election as a "referendum election", a historic test to determine whether Catalonia should be separated from Spain.
How does this work in practice?
The two key parties in favor of independence - the Convergència Democràtica de Catalunya of the Right and the Esquerra Republicana of the Left - have formed a joint Junts per Si (Together for Yes). The list also includes prominent activists, artists and a famous soccer coach, Pep Guardiola (Bayern Munich). In the ballot box there is also a left-wing separatist group, the CUP. If the common front and the CUP jointly receive an absolute majority of seats in parliament, they will be asked to go ahead with the independence of Catalonia.
Most seats? Should not aim at securing 50% of votes?
That's what critics say - and many supporters of independence. They point out that the electoral system in Catalonia makes it possible to acquire a majority of seats in parliament with just about 45% of the votes. How can the separatist camp ask for a break from the country when it has not even half the regional electorate with its side? This question is particularly relevant because today's vote has less to do with the acquisition of a legally sound mandate and more by sending out a loud message to Madrid and the rest of Europe. To do this, Junts per Si and CUP probably need more than 50% of the votes.
How did we get here?
Catalonia's request for independence is not new - there were two notices of independence in the first half of the 20 century. For the most part of the recent past, however, it was a request based on a minority that did not exceed the 20% of the population of Catalonia. This figure has increased significantly over the last decade. A key moment came 2010 when the Spanish Constitutional Court rejected a new agreement between the state and the region, which was being prepared for many years. The indignation of Spain grew even more as a result of the recent economic downturn and the political crisis that hit many of the country's key institutions. Money also plays a big role. Many Catalans feel that they are paying too many taxes in Spain and do not have the equivalent of being in the form of investments and transport. Meanwhile, in Madrid, officials tend to attribute an increase in separatist feelings to long-standing government propaganda, both in Catalan schools and in the media, summarized in "España nos roba" (Spain is stealing us).
What will the outcome of today's elections decide?
In a word, participation. Political analysts say the separatist camp can rely on support for about 1,8 million Catalans, most of whom are highly motivated and will vote almost under any circumstances. But will they be enough to secure a famous victory? There are about 5,4 million registered voters in the area. Assuming that 70% of them will go to vote, the camp in favor of Catalonia's independence would need 1,89 million votes to gain an absolute majority. If participation is higher - for example, voters who oppose independence suddenly "wake up" and go to vote - then securing an absolute majority will be much more difficult.
If the parties in favor of independence secure the overwhelming majority, is secession inevitable?
No. In principle, there is an obstacle to the Spanish Constitution, which provides for the "insoluble unity" of the Spanish nation and makes it clear that "sovereignty belongs to the Spanish people." In other words, secession is illegal in Spanish law. Moreover, both the conservative government and the socialist opposition in Madrid have made it clear that they are opposed to the creation of an independent Catalan state. Some Catalans put their hopes on the European Union, hoping to intervene and help to bring the two sides together. But there is no indication that Brussels, Berlin or Paris will rush to save the Catalans. On the contrary, as in the case of Scotland last year, European leaders have every incentive to try to "fend off the flames" of secession.
How can the confrontation be resolved?
Probably can not. Some hope for a "third way" involving a reform of the Spanish constitution, recognition of Catalonia as a state within Spain and a more generous budget agreement for the region. But, as almost everybody would say in Barcelona, even this kind of settlement would now be too little to put the "genie of autonomy" back in the bottle. As highlighted by a senior Catalan official last week, "once you become a Protestant, you will not become a Catholic again."
So there is no question of independence?
Outside of Catalonia, there is almost unanimity that, at least for the time being, there is no such issue. But a future Spanish government may have a different view and could decide to say yes to a referendum on independence. Or, perhaps more likely, the Catalan campaign could cause a serious constitutional crisis, for example ignoring Madrid's open and regular judgments and judgments, causing an increasingly tough legal response from the Spanish capital. In this scenario, it is conceivable that the EU may want to be involved - or that the Spaniards themselves will want to get rid of the revolutionary region. This, however, is a challenge for the future. First, the camp in favor of Catalonia's independence should win in the elections - and "sell" the outcome of the elections to the world in one way or another.
Source: EYRO2DAY
