value bet value bet

Value bet: How do we spot the value on the bet?

from / BETTING ADVICE / Monday, 24 June 2019 22: 43

The word value = value it should be A and Z in the betting vocabulary of each betting player. A concept so special, from other incomprehensible and many so misunderstood that has an impact on our own lives, our markets and our transactions.

The Value bet, in simple terms, is a bet capable of delivering long-term profit. The only way to win online betting (and not only), of course, is to exclude the trading technique. If a bet has no value, it should not have been wagered. Otherwise, we have rightly placed our money on top of it.

 

When is a bet worth a value-value?

 

In order to find that a bet contains a value, the probability of confirmation will be greater than the probability of return. And that's because every performance hides "in" a chance that is easily calculated if we divide 100 into performance.

Example:

Let's play the Bayern Munich-Dortmund game with odds 1: 2,00, X: 3,60, 2: 3,50

We divide 100 with each yield.

Οπότε 100/2=50%, 100/3,60=27,77%, 100/3,50=28,57%

So, based on the above example, "1" has a 50% probability of performance, "X" has 27,77% and "2" 28,57%.

If you think Bayern Munich has 60% (probability of winning = probability of confirmation) the game then the ace is considered a value bet.

Why; Because as mentioned above.

Value bet = When the bet's confirmation probability is greater than the probability of return.

Interference (rake): Do not be surprised that the addition of the above events exceeds 100%. This is due to rake.

50% + 27.77% + 28,57% = 106,34%

This 6,34% is the rake and varies from company to company or even championship championship. That is the percentage of the bet held by each betting company on its behalf. In simple terms, it is the commission or the profit without even playing the fight.

 

Proof of the above logic

 

Let us consider that we find a game where we think the Ace has 50% probability of confirmation and he (our ace) is offered to 2,20 by the "X" company. Speaking of long-term profit, suppose we bet 100 identical bets in the future. That is, we will have 100 times bet on 2,20 with 50% probability.

So, 50 times we will lose and 50 times we will win (based on 50% probability). So, 50 times we will lose from one bet each time and from 50 times we will win by 1,2 (2,20 performance-1) bets at a time. In the end, all our bets will be as follows: 50 * 1,2 - 50 = 60-50 = 10 winning bets.

 

Let's look at it with real numbers and no commissions from the company:

 

Suppose we bet 100 times with 100 euros in 2,20. As we said, we will lose 50 times from 100 euro = 5000 euro. But the other 50 times we will win (50% probability) from 120 Euro (net, 220-100 our bet = 120 Euro). So we will win 6000 euros. So we will be winning 1000 Euros, which means 10 bets of 100 Euros.

Note1: The more available performance we find online, it makes sense to lead to greater value, and therefore greater profit.

Note2: Good knowledge of the tournaments you are betting is required to make sure your point of view is correct, otherwise there is a serious case of mistaking you and losing a significant percentage of the value or even of no value.

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