Αουτραιτ(ς)

[grace_kelly]

This was the last bet for the thread. I have also placed a nice value in the NBA series, but there's no need to share it coz i paid my dues. Anyone who has followed this thread for a month (and without placing massive stakes) has easily made a year's salary in profit (w/o even counting River that is the bigger stake of all - i have a bad feeling that big winning streak is gonna end tonight vs Tucuman). For those who didn't.. oh well. The thread will remain active so that I can be able to update the existing pending bets.

Happy weekend everyone

 

[grace_kelly]

Προβολή συνημμένου 38416

My estimation @ 2.08

It's very hard to make any comments on this one . That was priced @ 1.01 to win the series

L

 

[grace_kelly]

River indeed dropped 2 points to Tucuman as I predicted. It was actually the only game in the last 10 that conceded a goal and did not win. I still think they will win the title by double digits, but I will hedge my stake (half of it because limits are small) with San Lorenzo which imo is the 2nd best team in the league

 

[grace_kelly]

although I have no time at all I must make some comments on the pending picks

 

[grace_kelly]

Προβολή συνημμένου 38583

Same old story every week for Lille. Fully dominating, creating tons of goal opportunities, missing tons of goals opportunities. I can't believe they failed to win this one ffs



Imo (due to Lille's tougher upcoming schedule) i think current odds are overestimated. Do as you please, I will hold anyways.

I didn't cashout 2 rounds ago when odds were @ 1.10, ofc after that Lilles went to drop 5 points in the next 2 games and now hosting Marseille. Without any more explanation i will cashout now @ 1.45. A Half won pick is always better than a full lost.

 

[grace_kelly]

No chance Las Palmas to be considered favourite to finish in the top 2. IMO odds for Las Palmas and Granada should be reversed (and i think Las Palmas won't even finish 3rd)


Προβολή συνημμένου 38351

I'll be honest: Granada did worse than I expected. The point is that ALL the other competing teams did way worse resulting in Granada with only 2 wins in the last 6, moving up from 4th place to 1st and having the easiest remaining schedule among all competitors, facing 2 teams (Mirandes, Leganes) that play for nothing in very winnable matches. You can cashout the second bet @ 1.05 odds and hold the outright. Or you can do whatever you want anywayz

 

[grace_kelly]

after the huge favorite Perugia (22-0 in Italy) was ruled out (that was the plan from the start) I see no reason to keep the bet and risk @ fair odds, while Kozle showed very strong performance in Semis. So I cashout @ 2.50 current odds.
(I used 2 combo fillers to boost the odds because of the small limits).


Προβολή συνημμένου 38471 Προβολή συνημμένου 38472

Here I clearly made a mistake in rushing to cashout. Jastrzebski went 9-0 in the playoffs, winning the national championship dropping just 5 sets in that run and trashing Kozle in the finals. Pretty normally turned into favorite now.

 

[grace_kelly]

Προβολή συνημμένου 38344


My estimation @ 5.75 + @ 8.00

Mourinho managed to win 2 matches in the last 8 and those 2 matches were against Feyenoord and Leverkusen. If it wasn't for that goal in the 90th minute (which fucked me up multiple times) now one of Leverkusen or Feyenoord would definitely be in the final.

Current odds @ 5.00, current estimation @ 5.00.

 

[grace_kelly]

To promote

Προβολή συνημμένου 38440


My estimation @ 3.50

Προβολή συνημμένου 38441


My estimation @ 4.50

Salford almost messed it up. In the last round they needed just 1 point at home against an opponent with no motivation and they managed to loose 0-1. At the same time Mansfield won 0-1 away from home. If they conceded 1 more goal or if Mansfield scored 1 more goal they would now be eliminated from playoffs because of the goal difference. Due to this defeat they dropped to 6th place and face Stockport who were the best team in the second round and finished the season 14 matches unbeaten. In the first match we won 1-0 and the scoreline doesn't bring justice as we could have extended our lead. If we manage to qualify from this series, I believe that the next round will be easier.

Current odds @ 3.25 , current estimation @ 3.30.


Luton is the equivalent to Stockport in championship. The best team of the 2nd round, was very close to direct promotion. In the 1st game against Sunderland we were not good and the score could have been worse. The same applies as I mentioned with Salford. If we get through this round, I think we'll also beat (probably) Middlesbrough.

Current odds @ 5.00, current estimation @ 5.00

 

[grace_kelly]

Cashout / money back


Προβολή συνημμένου 38469

Last but not least

Just like i said in the initial pick : biggest chockers + losers in the whole business

 

[grace_kelly]

To promote

Προβολή συνημμένου 38440


My estimation @ 3.50

Cover bet @ 2.15

(Crazy that Coventry made it that far)

 

[grace_kelly]

Προβολή συνημμένου 38344


My estimation @ 5.75 + @ 8.00

joke coach + joke team

Both L

 

[grace_kelly]

Προβολή συνημμένου 38342

My estimation @ 3.33

There's no way Fiorentina to be considered as underdog vs West ham.

 

[grace_kelly]

To promote

Προβολή συνημμένου 38440


My estimation @ 3.50

Προβολή συνημμένου 38441


My estimation @ 4.50

W + very undeserved L

 

[grace_kelly]

Προβολή συνημμένου 38341

My estimation @ 3.50

W

 

[grace_kelly]

No chance Las Palmas to be considered favourite to finish in the top 2. IMO odds for Las Palmas and Granada should be reversed (and i think Las Palmas won't even finish 3rd)


Προβολή συνημμένου 38351

W