Pregame Draws/In play Various Bets

[hercules]

SUMMARY TABLE — MODEL A & MODEL B RESULTS​

Bundesliga Fixtures Overview​

Match	Model A Score	Model B Score	Stronger Team (Models)	Win Probabilities	Value Bet
Stuttgart vs Frankfurt	Stuttgart 12 – 10 Frankfurt	Stuttgart 30.5 – 21 Frankfurt	Stuttgart (clear)	63% – 20% – 17%	1 (1.70) fair value
Mainz vs Heidenheim	Mainz 9 – 7 Heidenheim	Heidenheim 17 – 14.5 Mainz	Split (A: Mainz, B: Heidenheim)	38% – 29% – 33%	X or 2
Dortmund vs Bremen	Dortmund 17 – 8 Bremen	Dortmund 39.5 – 16.5 Bremen	Dortmund (dominant)	78% – 14% – 8%	No value (1.38 fair)
HSV vs Leverkusen	Leverkusen 13 – 10 HSV	Leverkusen 27.5 – 26.5 HSV	Leverkusen (slight)	28% – 27% – 45%	1X or Draw

 

[hercules]

PREGAME DRAWS
155/603 -53

81/273 RVS +10.50
TESTING AWAY WINS 4/7+4.90
TESTING MODEL DRAWS 1/8 -5
TESTING MODEL HOME WINS 7/15 +2.40

 

[hercules]

TESTING AWAY WINS
Hearts vs St Mirren 7.50
Sion vs Winterthur 7.10
Paris FC (F) vs Nantes (F) 7.00

 

[hercules]

FULL FIXTURE SUMMARY TABLE​

Match	Master Score (Home)	Master Score (Away)	Win Prob Home	Win Prob Away	Most Likely Score	Value Side	Risk
RB Leipzig vs Freiburg	61.5	38.5	61.5%	38.5%	2–1	Leipzig	Medium
Hoffenheim vs M’gladbach	47	39	54.6%	45.4%	2–1	Hoffenheim	Medium‑High
Falkirk vs Celtic	39	67	36.8%	63.2%	0–2	Celtic (low odds)	Low‑Medium
Hearts vs St Mirren	61.5	44.5	58%	42%	2–1	St Mirren +1	Medium
Sion vs Winterthur	61.5	41.5	59.7%	40.3%	2–1	Winterthur +1	Medium
Servette vs Lausanne	61.5	44.5	58%	42%	2–1	Servette	Medium
Dijon (F) vs PSG (F)	33	67	33%	67%	0–2	PSG -1	Low‑Medium
Strasbourg (F) vs Montpellier (F)	48	43	52.7%	47.3%	2–1	Strasbourg	Medium‑High
Paris FC (F) vs Nantes (F)	61.5	33.5	64.7%	35.3%	2–0	Nantes +1.5	Medium

στηλες 1-5 προβλεψη συμφωνα με ποσοστο και βαθμολογια ομαδων συμφωνα με το μοντελο.
στηλη 6 στηλη με προβλεψη σκορ.
στηλη 7 προβλεψη συμφωνα με σκορ ομαδων σε συσχετισμο με τις αποδοσεις.
στηλη 8 πιθανοτητα ρισκου.

 

[hercules]

PREGAME DRAWS
155/603 -53

81/273 RVS +10.50
TESTING AWAY WINS 5/10+10.90
TESTING MODEL DRAWS 1/8 -5
TESTING MODEL HOME WINS 7/15 +2.40

 

[hercules]

PREGAME DRAWS
Augsburg vs Union Berlin 3.15
TESTING AWAY WINS
Como vs Milan 2.40
verona vs bologna 2.25
TESTING MODEL HOME WINS
Vizela vs Paços de Ferreira 1.65

FULL SUMMARY TABLE WITH MODEL SCORES​

Match	A (Model A)	B (Model B)	C (Model C)	Master	P(Home)	P(Away)	MLS	Value
verona vs bologna	15 vs 10	31.5 vs 16.5	15 vs 9	61.5 vs 35.5	63%	37%	2–1	Bologna
Como vs Milan	12 vs 16	23 vs 32	12 vs 16	47 vs 64	42%	58%	1–2	Milan
Augsburg vs Union Berlin	11 vs 11	24 vs 21	11 vs 11	46 vs 43	52%	48%	1–1	Draw
Vizela vs Paços de Ferreira	14 vs 10	31.5 vs 17.5	15 vs 11	60.5 vs 38.5	61%	39%	2–1	Vizela

 

[hercules]

PREGAME DRAWS
156/604 -51
82/274 RVS +12.50

TESTING AWAY WINS 7/12 +13.50

TESTING MODEL DRAWS 1/8 -5

TESTING MODEL HOME WINS 8/16 +3

late goals 90+ 28/39

 

[hercules]

PREGAME DRAWS

Sampdoria vs Entella 3.10
Linfield vs Larne 3.00
Annecy vs Amiens 3.25

TESTING MODEL HOME WINS

Werder Bremen vs Frankfurt 2.88
West Brom vs Middlesbrough 2.37

TESTING AWAY WINS

ADO Den Haag vs Cambuur 5.00
Viseu vs Leiria 4.10
Dunkerque vs Pau 4.33
Boulogne vs Montpellier 2.30

 

[hercules]

MASTER COMBINED TABLE — All Fixtures, Predictions & Model Scores​

Fixture	Predicted Score	Home Win %	Away Win %	Master Score (Home)	Master Score (Away)	Value Pick
Werder Bremen vs Frankfurt	2–1	55.9%	44.1%	47.5	37.5	Bremen
Monaco vs Lorient	2–0	64.7%	35.3%	59.5	32.5	Monaco
West Brom vs Middlesbrough	2–1	60.1%	39.9%	50.5	33.5	West Brom
Castellón vs Leganés	2–0	62.7%	37.3%	60.5	36	Castellón
Sampdoria vs Entella	1–1	49.5%	50.5%	47.5	48.5	Entella +0.5
ADO Den Haag vs Cambuur	2–1	54.7%	45.3%	58.5	48.5	Cambuur +1.0
Linfield vs Larne	1–1	47.9%	52.1%	57.5	62.5	Larne +0.25
Viseu vs Leiria	2–1	56.7%	43.3%	59.5	45.5	Leiria +1.0
Annecy vs Amiens	1–1	48%	52%	48	52	Amiens +0.5
Dunkerque vs Pau	2–1	55.6%	44.4%	59.5	47.5	Pau +1.0
Boulogne vs Montpellier	1–2	36.9%	63.1%	35.5	60.5	Montpellier

 

[hercules]

PREGAME DRAWS
158/607 -48
84/277 RVS +15.60

TESTING AWAY WINS 8/16 +14.50

TESTING MODEL DRAWS 1/8 -5

TESTING MODEL HOME WINS 8/18 +1

late goals 90+ 28/39

 

[hercules]

PREGAME DRAWS
Almería vs Deportivo 3.55
Swansea vs Birmingham 3.20
Betis vs Villarreal 3.50

TESTING AWAY WINS 8/16
Bari vs Juve Stabia 2.50

 

[hercules]

FULL SUMMARY TABLE WITH MODEL SCORES + VALUE PICKS​

Match	A (Model A)	B (Model B)	C (Model C)	Master Score	Model Winner	Most Likely Score	Value Pick
AVS vs Arouca	12 vs 10	23.5 vs 20.5	12 vs 11	47.5 vs 41.5	AVS (very close)	1–1	Draw (X)
Alverca vs Moreirense	12 vs 11	23.5 vs 21	12 vs 12	47.5 vs 44	Alverca (very close)	1–1	Draw (X)
Zaragoza vs Real Sociedad B	13 vs 8	27 vs 16.5	13 vs 8	53 vs 32.5	Zaragoza	1–0	Zaragoza
Almería vs Deportivo	12 vs 11	24 vs 20.5	12 vs 12	48 vs 43.5	Almería (close)	1–1	Draw (X)
Swansea vs Birmingham	11 vs 12	24 vs 21	12 vs 12	47 vs 45	Swansea (very close)	1–1	Draw (X)
Bari vs Juve Stabia	8 vs 12	19.5 vs 24	9 vs 12	36.5 vs 48	Juve Stabia	1–2	Juve Stabia
Osasuna vs Real Oviedo	13 vs 9	27 vs 16.5	13 vs 8	53 vs 33.5	Osasuna	1–0	Osasuna
Betis vs Villarreal	11 vs 14	24 vs 24	12 vs 12	47 vs 50	Villarreal (slight edge)	1–2	Villarreal

 

[hercules]

PREGAME DRAWS
159/610 -48
85/280 RVS +15.80

TESTING AWAY WINS 9/17 +16

TESTING MODEL DRAWS 1/8 -5

TESTING MODEL HOME WINS 8/18 +1

late goals 90+ 28/39

 

[hercules]

PREGAME DRAWS
Celta Vigo vs Rayo Vallecano 3.40
Real Sociedad vs Barcelona 4.55
Albacete vs Cádiz 3.55

TESTING AWAY WINS
Torino vs Roma 1.90

TESTING MODEL HOME WINS
Tondela vs Braga 7.10
Vitória SC vs FC Porto 8.00
Burgos vs Huesca 1.95
Córdoba vs Málaga 2.05

 

[hercules]

Full Summary Table (Models + Scores + Value Bets)​

Fixture	Master Score (Home)	Master Score (Away)	Predicted Winner	Most Likely Score	Value Bet
Torino vs Roma	40	56.5	Roma	1–2 Roma	Roma (1.90 fair vs 59% model)
Celta Vigo vs Rayo Vallecano	45	37	Celta Vigo	1–0 Celta	Celta (1.91 fair vs 55%)
Real Sociedad vs Barcelona	52.5	55.5	Barcelona (very close)	1–1	Real Sociedad + Draw (value vs odds)
Tondela vs Braga	32	56.5	Braga	1–2 Braga	Tondela +1.5 (model closer than odds)
Vitória SC vs FC Porto	41	62.5	FC Porto	0–2 Porto	Vitória +1.5 (market overestimates Porto)
Albacete vs Cádiz	45	37	Albacete	1–0 Albacete	Albacete (1.86 fair vs 55%)
Burgos vs Huesca	53	36.5	Burgos	1–0 Burgos	Burgos (2.01 vs 59%)
Córdoba vs Málaga	53	35.5	Córdoba	1–0 Córdoba	Córdoba (1.96 vs 60%)

 

[hercules]

PREGAME DRAWS
159/613 -51
85/283 RVS +12.80

TESTING AWAY WINS 10/18 +16.90

TESTING MODEL DRAWS 1/8 -5

TESTING MODEL HOME WINS 9/22 -1

late goals 90+ 28/39

 

[hercules]

Match	Master Score (Home–Away)	Win Prob (Home)	Win Prob (Away)	Correct Score (Most Likely)	Value Bet
Brighton vs Bournemouth	46 – 48.5	48.7%	51.3%	1–1	Bournemouth +0.5 / DNB
Cremonese vs Verona	48 – 36.5	56.8%	43.2%	1–0	Cremonese Win / 1X
Lazio vs Como	34 – 46.5	42.2%	57.8%	1–2	Como Win / +0.0
Elche vs Sevilla	47.5 – 34	58.3%	41.7%	1–0	Elche Win / 1X
Estrela vs Estoril	40.5 – 41	49.7%	50.3%	1–1	Draw (3.40)
Feirense vs Porto B	51 – 32.5	61.1%	38.9%	2–0	Feirense Win
Sporting B vs Torreense	40.5 – 46	46.8%	53.2%	1–1	Torreense Win / +0.5
Cosenza vs Crotone	51 – 32.5	61.1%	38.9%	2–0	Cosenza Win

 

[hercules]

RANKED VALUE TABLE (MASTER SCORES ONLY + TOP 3 HIGHLIGHTED)​

Rank	Match	Master Score (Home)	Master Score (Away)	Value Bet	Odds	Score Prediction
	West Brom vs Norwich	57	48	Norwich	3.50	2–1
	Yeovil vs Aldershot	47.5	45	Draw	3.40	1–1
	Preston vs Hull	48	42.5	Draw	3.20	1–1
4	Truro vs Brackley	44.5	48	Draw	3.10	1–1
5	Wrexham vs Leicester	44.5	57	Leicester	3.10	1–2
6	Oxford Utd vs QPR	46.5	32.5	Oxford	2.40	2–1
7	Swansea vs Blackburn	48	33.5	Swansea	2.05	2–1
8	Stevenage vs Bolton	44.5	57	Bolton	2.05	1–2
9	Alloa vs Montrose	48	33.5	Alloa	1.85	2–1

θα κανω και μια daily bets list για να δουμε πως παει η μερα συνολικα.
bets 8 units
return 10.96 units
profit+2.96
4/8

 

[hercules]

PREGAME DRAWS
160/615 -50
86/285 RVS +14

TESTING AWAY WINS 11/21 +17.70

TESTING MODEL HOME WINS 11/24 -0

late goals 90+ 28/39
για να μην γραφω ξεχωριστα τα παιχνιδια ειναι οτι παρουσιαζεται στο table.
παιζω τα value bets μονο ,οι τιμες ειναι λιγο πιο πανω λογω του bonus της 365(πχ νοργουιτς απο 3.50 ,εδινε 3.86)

 

[hercules]

Ranked value table (master scores + odds)​

Rank	Match	Market	Master A	Master B	Odds
1	Leiria vs Vizela	Leiria (1)	48	33	2.50
2	Al‑Ettifaq vs Neom SC	Al‑Ettifaq (1)	48	33	2.60
3	Al‑Okhdood vs Al‑Riyadh	Al‑Okhdood (1)	48	32	2.40
4	TS Galaxy vs Marumo Gallants	TS Galaxy (1)	48	32	1.95
5	Halifax vs Morecambe	Halifax (1)	48	33	1.80
6	Wealdstone vs Tamworth	Draw (X)	47	42	3.30
7	Southampton vs Sheffield Utd	Southampton (1)	60.5	43	2.20
8	Stoke vs Middlesbrough	Middlesbrough (2)	36	48	2.30

4/7 1 αναβολη
bets 7 units
return 8.66
profit +1.66
total +4.62