Pregame Draws/In play Various Bets

[hercules]

PREGAME DRAWS
160/615 -50
86/285 RVS +14

TESTING AWAY WINS 12/22 +19

TESTING MODEL HOME WINS 14/30 -0

late goals 90+ 28/39

 

[hercules]

UPDATED SUMMARY TABLE (Odds + Master Score + Value Side)​

Fixture	Master Score (A–B)	Odds (1–X–2)	Value Side
Al‑Qadsiah vs Al‑Ittihad	68 – 55.5	2.20 – 3.60 – 2.80	Al‑Qadsiah
Bologna vs Celtic	49 – 56.5	1.73 – 3.90 – 4.50	Celtic
Fenerbahçe vs Aston Villa	69 – 54.5	2.35 – 3.50 – 2.90	Fenerbahçe
PAOK vs Real Betis	67.5 – 57	2.20 – 3.50 – 3.20	PAOK
Nice vs Go Ahead Eagles	46 – 45	2.00 – 4.00 – 3.20	Draw

celtic πληρωθηκε σαν early payout win αν και ηρθε ισοπαλια.
3/5
bets 5 units
return 9.05
profit +4.05
total +8.67

 

[hercules]

PREGAME DRAWS
160/616 -51
86/286 RVS +13

TESTING AWAY WINS 13/23 +22.75

TESTING MODEL HOME WINS 14/30 +1.30

late goals 90+ 28/39

 

[hercules]

Updated Fixture Table​

#	Match	Odds (1–X–2)	Master Scores (A vs B)	Model Winner	Value Bet
1	Derby vs West Brom	2.55 – 3.10 – 2.70	49 – 24	Derby	Derby (model 67% vs odds 39%)
2	Málaga vs Burgos	2.01 – 3.00 – 4.00	65 – 51	Málaga	Málaga (fair odds 1.78)
3	Arbroath vs Morton	1.80 – 3.30 – 3.90	33 – 49	Morton	Morton (model 60% vs odds 25%)
4	Paços vs Académico Viseu	4.75 – 3.30 – 1.67	45 – 61	Viseu	Paços (model 42% vs odds 21%)
5	Nancy vs Rodez	1.95 – 3.40 – 3.30	32 – 48.5	Rodez	Rodez (model 60% vs odds 30%)
6	Pau vs Grenoble	1.67 – 3.50 – 4.75	41 – 48	Grenoble	Grenoble (huge value at 4.75)
7	Annecy vs Clermont	2.05 – 3.20 – 3.60	50.5 – 33.5	Annecy	Annecy (model 60% vs odds 48%)
8	Amiens vs Laval	2.80 – 2.90 – 2.55	32 – 47	Laval	Laval (model 59% vs odds 39%)
9	Bastia vs Montpellier	2.63 – 3.00 – 2.63	42 – 48	Draw	draw

τρελα πραγματα εγιναν σημερα με γκολ στο 90+.
ειπαμε παιζουμε μονο value bets και οχι to model winner .
4/9
bet units 9
return 12.15
profit +3.15
total +11.82

 

[hercules]

PREGAME DRAWS
160/617 -50
86/286 RVS +12

TESTING AWAY WINS 14/27 +22.05

TESTING MODEL HOME WINS 17/34 +7.10

late goals 90+ 28/39

 

[hercules]

FULL SUMMARY TABLE (MODELS + SCORES + VALUE BETS)​

Match	Model A	Model B	Model C	Master Score	Win Probabilities	Most Likely Score	Value Bet
Bournemouth vs Liverpool	10 – 17	20 – 34.5	11 – 15	41 – 66.5	38% – 62%	1–2 Liverpool	Liverpool
Fiorentina vs Cagliari	13 – 8	30.5 – 16	13 – 8	56.5 – 32	64% – 36%	2–1 Fiorentina	Fiorentina
Lecce vs Lazio	8 – 12	18 – 23.5	9 – 12	35 – 47.5	42% – 58%	1–2 Lazio	Lazio
Sevilla vs Athletic Club	9 – 11	22 – 22.5	9 – 12	40 – 45.5	47% – 53%	1–1	Draw
Villarreal vs Real Madrid	12 – 17	26 – 31	13 – 15	51 – 63	45% – 55%	1–2 Real Madrid	Draw
Arouca vs Sporting CP	12 – 17	23.5 – 35	12 – 15	47.5 – 67	41% – 59%	1–2 Sporting	Sporting
Estoril vs Vitória SC	14 – 12	25 – 23.5	12 – 12	51 – 47.5	52% – 48%	2–1 Estoril	Estoril
Las Palmas vs Córdoba	14 – 12	32 – 22.5	15 – 12	61 – 46.5	57% – 43%	2–1 Las Palmas	Las Palmas
Cádiz vs Granada	12 – 10	27 – 23	12 – 11	51 – 44	54% – 46%	1–0 Cádiz	Cádiz
Le Havre vs Monaco	10 – 11	26 – 21.5	12 – 9	48 – 41.5	54% – 46%	2–1 Le Havre	Le Havre
Marseille vs Lens	12 – 12	26.5 – 24	13 – 12	51.5 – 48	52% – 48%	1–1	Draw

2/11
bets 11 units
returns 3.80
profit -7.20
total +4.60

 

[hercules]

PREGAME DRAWS
160/620 -53
86/286 RVS +9

TESTING AWAY WINS 15/30 +20.35

TESTING MODEL HOME WINS 18/39 +4.60

late goals 90+ 28/39

 

[hercules]

Value‑Sorted Summary Table​

Match	Odds (1 / X / 2)	Model Winner	Master Score	Most Likely Score	Value Side
Deportivo vs Racing Santander	2.10 / 3.20 / 3.40	Racing	47.5 – 57	1–2 Racing	Racing
Zaragoza vs Castellón	3.60 / 3.40 / 1.96	Castellón	40 – 56.5	1–2 Castellón	Castellón
Pafos vs AEK Larnaca	2.20 / 3.25 / 3.30	Pafos	56.5 – 47.5	2–1 Pafos	Pafos
Aris Limassol vs Omonia	2.45 / 3.25 / 2.88	Omonia	56 – 64.5	1–2 Omonia	Omonia
Al‑Fayha vs Al‑Fateh	2.35 / 3.25 / 2.70	Al‑Fateh	35.5 – 49	1–1 or 1–2	Al‑Fateh
Atromitos vs Panathinaikos	4.20 / 3.25 / 1.96	Panathinaikos	32 – 56.5	0–1 Panathinaikos	Panathinaikos
Juventus vs Napoli	1.95 / 3.10 / 4.50	Juventus	59.5 – 45.5	1–0 Juventus	Juventus
Roma vs Milan	2.75 / 2.90 / 2.90	Draw (value)	63.5 – 64.5	1–1 Draw	Draw

bets units 8
return 10.80
profit +2.80
total +7.40

 

[hercules]

PREGAME DRAWS
161/621 -51
86/286 RVS +11

TESTING AWAY WINS 17/35 +21.35

TESTING MODEL HOME WINS 19/40 +4.50

late goals 90+ 28/39

 

[hercules]

2. FILTERED LIST — PROFITABLE 1X2 OPPORTUNITIES (WITH ODDS)​

1X2 Allowed (Gap ≥ 20)​

These are your highest‑EV straight wins:

Fixture	Gap	Pick	Odds
Girona vs Getafe	+25	Girona	2.32
Jong AZ vs Almere City	–22	Almere City	1.90
Ceuta vs Cultural Leonesa	+20	Ceuta	2.19
Verona vs Udinese	–20	Udinese	2.72

Fixture	Gap	Value Side	Odds (1 – X – 2)	Assigned Bet Type
Roda JC vs VVV‑Venlo	+19	Roda JC	1.76 – 3.90 – 3.90	DRAW 3.96
Everton vs Leeds	+18	Everton	2.05 – 3.40 – 3.60	DRAW 3.22
Jong PSV vs Helmond Sport	+15	Jong PSV	2.15 – 4.10 – 2.75	DRAW 4.15
Le Mans vs Dunkerque	0	Draw	2.63 – 3.00 – 2.55	DRAW 3.00

απο εδω και περα θα διορθωνω τις αποδοσεις πριν ξεκινησουν οι αγωνες,γιατι ειναι τελειως διαφορετικες του σοφασκορ απο την 365(στα μπετς που παιζω).ξεχασα να αλλαξω το value side στο draw,αλλα για να ειμαι συνεπης θα τα περασω οχι σαν ισοπαλιες αλλα σαν τα αποτελεσματα του βαλιου.(αν και τα επαιξα ισοπαλιες, στην δευτερη στηλη αναφερομαι).
bets 8 units
return 9
profit+0.90
total +8.30

 

[hercules]

PREGAME DRAWS
161/622 -52
86/287 RVS +10

TESTING AWAY WINS 19/37 +23.95

TESTING MODEL HOME WINS 21/45 +3.90

late goals 90+ 28/39

 

[hercules]

Match	Home MS	Away MS	Gap	Value Side
Barnet vs Tranmere	62.5	33.0	29.5	Barnet @ 1.57
Cambridge vs Shrewsbury	61.5	33.5	28.0	Cambridge @ 1.56
Walsall vs Crawley	59.5	33.5	26.0	Walsall @ 1.71
Bromley vs Crewe	62.5	38.0	24.5	Bromley @ 1.66
Rotherham vs Northampton	52.5	33.5	19.0	DRAW
Reading vs Exeter	52.0	33.5	18.5	DRAW
Wycombe vs Wigan	52.0	34.5	17.5	DRAW
Sekhukhune vs Sundowns	47.0	64.0	17.0	DRAW
Doncaster vs Leyton Orient	33.0	49.5	16.5	DRAW
Al Ahly vs Wadi Degla	62.5	47.0	15.5	DRAW
Cheltenham vs Gillingham	33.5	48.5	15.0	DRAW
Harrogate vs Fleetwood	33.5	48.5	15.0	DRAW
Newport vs Accrington	34.0	48.0	14.0	Accrington @ 2.30
Barrow vs Oldham	34.0	48.0	14.0	Oldham @ 2.25
Stevenage vs Peterborough	47.5	54.5	7.0	Peterborough @ 3.20

3/13
bets units 13
return 9
profit -4
total +4.30

 

[hercules]

PREGAME DRAWS
162/629 -55.5
86/287 RVS +6.5

TESTING AWAY WINS 20/39 +24.30

TESTING MODEL HOME WINS 23/49 +3.00

late goals 90+ 28/39

 

[hercules]

Match	1	X	2	Master A	Master B	Gap	Value Pick
Al‑Masry vs Ceramica Cleopatra	2.45	3.10	2.70	44.5	67	22.5	Ceramica Cleopatra
Al‑Fayha vs Al‑Khaleej	2.60	3.10	2.50	34	56.5	22.5	Al‑Khaleej
Marumo Gallants vs Kaizer Chiefs	3.80	3.00	1.91	33.5	61.5	28	Kaizer Chiefs
Dortmund vs Inter	3.00	3.60	2.25	46	68.5	22.5	Inter
Club Brugge vs Marseille	2.55	3.60	2.63	52	42	10	Club Brugge
Napoli vs Chelsea	3.50	3.60	2.05	47	55.5	8.5	draw
AS Monaco vs Juventus	4.50	3.80	1.75	44.5	64	19.5	draw
Athletic Club vs Sporting CP	2.70	3.40	2.55	44.5	59	14.5	Sporting CP
Ajax vs Olympiacos	3.00	3.75	2.20	38	58	20	Olympiacos

6/9
bets units 9
return 15.75
profit +6.75
total +11.05

 

[hercules]

PREGAME DRAWS
163/631 -53.70
87/289 RVS +8.30
4/13 GAP15-19 0

TESTING AWAY WINS 24/45 +27.50

TESTING MODEL HOME WINS 24/50 +4.60

 

[hercules]

Match	Master Score (Home)	Master Score (Away)	Gap	Value Pick
Lille vs Freiburg	42	61	19	Freiburg
Lyon vs PAOK	68	52	16	Draw
Panathinaikos vs Roma	52.5	62.5	10	Panathinaikos
GA Eagles vs Braga	42	60	18	Draw
Mahalla vs El‑Gaish	41.5	33.5	8	Mahalla
Modern Sport vs Ismaily	54	33	21	Modern Sport Win
Al‑Qadsiah vs Al‑Hilal	61	69.5	8.5	Al‑Qadsiah

2/7
bet untis 7
return 6.40
profit -0.60
total +10.45

 

[hercules]

PREGAME DRAWS
164/633 -51.30
87/289 RVS +10.70
5/15 GAP15-19 +2.40

TESTING AWAY WINS 24/46 +26.50

TESTING MODEL HOME WINS 25/54 +2.60

 

[hercules]

Fixture	Gap	Value Pick
Bari vs Palermo	26.5	Palermo 1.88
Clermont vs Reims	25.5	Reims 1.80
RKC Waalwijk vs TOP Oss	21.5	RKC -1 AH 2.10
Vitória SC vs Moreirense	13	Moreirense
Köln vs Wolfsburg	14.5	Wolfsburg
Penafiel vs Leixões	12.5	Penafiel
Espanyol vs Alavés	12.5	Espanyol
Vitesse vs Dordrecht	11.5	Dordrecht 3.22
Real Sociedad B vs Las Palmas	15	Draw 3.26
Laval vs Pau FC	15.5	Draw
Lazio vs Genoa	7.5	Genoa
Den Bosch vs Emmen	5	Draw 3.84
FC Eindhoven vs MVV	3	MVV
Montpellier vs Guingamp	0.5	Draw
Rodez vs Red Star	0	Draw 3.20

7/15
bet units 15
return 19.30
profit +4.30
total +14.75

 

[hercules]

PREGAME DRAWS
167/638 -46
90/294 RVS +16
8/20 GAP15-19 +7.70

TESTING AWAY WINS 27/54 +26.40

TESTING MODEL HOME WINS 26/57 +1.70

 

[hercules]

Match	Gap	Gap Category	Correct Strategy	Optimal Bet	Notes
Napoli vs Fiorentina	21	20+ Zone	1X2 (core bet)	Napoli @ 1.92	Elite zone, low draw risk
Cagliari vs Verona	13	10–14 Zone	1X2 only if odds ≥ 1.70	Cagliari @ 2.21	Good value, moderate draw risk
Levante vs Atlético	24.5	20+ Zone	1X2 (core bet)	Atlético @ 1.75	Strongest away favorite
Lorient vs Nantes	10	10–14 Zone	1X2 only if odds ≥ 1.70	Lorient @ 1.92	Acceptable price
Monaco vs Rennes	12	10–14 Zone	1X2 only if odds ≥ 1.70	Rennes @ 3.70	Big value underdog
Rio Ave vs Arouca	2.5	0–4 Zone	Double Chance / Avoid 1X2	Draw @ 3.25	Extremely draw‑heavy zone
Alverca vs Estrela	16	15–19 Zone	DNB / AH‑0.25 / DC	Draw 3.12	Strong but draw‑prone
Farense vs Porto B	4.5	0–4 Zone	Double Chance / Avoid 1X2	Porto B 4.50	Very tight match
Vizela vs Portimonense	15.5	15–19 Zone	DNB / AH‑0.25 / DC	Draw 3.60	Safer than straight 1X2
Sampdoria vs Spezia	18.5	15–19 Zone	DNB / AH‑0.25 / DC	Draw 3.00	Straight 1X2 OK only if ≥1.90
Cultural Leonesa vs Deportivo	20.5	20+ Zone	1X2 (core bet)	Deportivo @ 2.30	High‑confidence away pick
Córdoba vs Valladolid	11.5	10–14 Zone	1X2 only if odds ≥ 1.70	Valladolid @ 4.45	Huge value underdog
PEC Zwolle vs Telstar	27	20+ Zone	1X2 (core bet)	Zwolle @ 2.34	Best value of all fixtures
Sparta vs Groningen	4	0–4 Zone	Double Chance / Avoid 1X2	Draw 3.62	High draw probability

8/14
bet units 14
return 21.91
profit +7.91
total +22.66