Pregame Draws/In play Various Bets

[hercules]

PREGAME DRAWS
169/643 -44.30
92/299 RVS +17.30
10/25 GAP15-19 +9.40

TESTING AWAY WINS 29/59 +28.20

TESTING MODEL HOME WINS 30/61 +6

 

[hercules]

Rank	Fixture	GAP	Home MS	Away MS	Value Pick
1	GA Eagles vs Volendam	–19.0	48.5	29.5	Draw 3.58
2	AEK Athens vs Olympiacos	+14.5	63.5	49	AEK
3	USG vs Club Brugge	+14.5	63.5	49	USG 2.20
4	Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad	+12.5	63.5	51	Athletic Club
5	Al‑Fateh vs Al‑Hazem	+11.5	45	33.5	Al‑Fateh
6	Mechelen vs OH Leuven	–11.5	48	36.5	Mechelen
7	Cádiz vs Huesca	–11.5	48	36.5	Cádiz
8	Racing Santander vs Granada	–8.0	56	48	Draw

2/8
bet units 8
return 5.80
profit -2.20
total +20.46

 

[hercules]

PREGAME DRAWS
107/645 -42.70
93/301 RVS +18.90
11/27 GAP15-19 +11

TESTING AWAY WINS 29/61 +26.20

TESTING MODEL HOME WINS 31/65 +4.20

 

[hercules]

Fixture	Gap	Recommended Bet
Mirandés vs Málaga	13.5	Málaga 2.63
Jong Utrecht vs VVV‑Venlo	1	Draw 4.05
Vitesse vs FC Eindhoven	18	Draw 3.84

2/3
bet units 3
return 7.90
profit +4.90
total +25.35

 

[hercules]

PREGAME DRAWS
109/647 -36.80
95/303 RVS +24.80
13/29 GAP15-19 +16.90

TESTING AWAY WINS 29/62 +25.20

TESTING MODEL HOME WINS 31/65 +4.20

 

[hercules]

Match	Gap	Strategy Zone	Allowed Bet Type	Value Pick
Queen’s Park vs Ross County	13.5	10–14 (Moderate)	1X2 allowed (odds ≥ 1.70)	Ross County 2.15
Damac vs Al‑Kholood	13.5	10–14 (Moderate)	1X2 allowed	Damac
Al‑Ettifaq vs Al‑Taawoun	28	20+ (Elite)	1X2 core bet	Al‑Taawoun
Altrincham vs Morecambe	24.5	20+ (Elite)	1X2 core bet	Altrincham
Bristol Rovers vs Walsall	3.5	0–4 (Draw Danger)	Double Chance ONLY	Draw
Harrogate vs Swindon	17.5	15–19 (Strong but draw‑prone)	DNB / AH -0.25 / DC	Draw
Notts County vs Gillingham	7.5	5–9 (Very High Draw Risk)	DNB / AH +0.25	Draw
Barnet vs Crewe	2.5	0–4 (Draw Danger)	Double Chance ONLY	Draw 3.75

2/8
bet units 8
return 5.90
return -2.10
total +23.25

 

[hercules]

PREGAME DRAWS
110/651 -36.55
96/307 RVS +24.55
14/33 GAP15-19 +16.65

TESTING AWAY WINS 30/64 +25.35

TESTING MODEL HOME WINS 31/67 +2.20

 

[hercules]

Match	Gap	Recommended Bet Type
Dundee FC vs Motherwell	22	Motherwell
Livingston vs Falkirk	28	Falkirk
Metaloglobus vs Csíkszereda	2	Draw
UTA Arad vs CFR Cluj	8	Draw
Farul Constanța vs Dinamo București	8	Draw

για τους αγωνες στην ρουμανια ειναι ενστικτο vs μοντελο.για να δουμε

1/4
bet untis 4
return 2.05
profit -2
total +21.25

 

[hercules]

PREGAME DRAWS
110/654 -39.55
96/310RVS +27.55
14/36 GAP15-19 +13.65

TESTING AWAY WINS 31/65 +26.40

TESTING MODEL HOME WINS 31/67 +2.20

 

[hercules]

Match	Gap	Reason (Based on Gap Rules)	Value Pick
Accrington vs Salford	15.0	Gap 15–19 → strong favorite but draw‑prone	Draw 3.35
Al‑Arabi vs Al‑Shamal	17.0	Gap 15–19 → avoid straight 1X2 unless odds ≥ 1.90	Draw 3.60
Wadi Degla vs Arab Contractors	21.5	Gap 20+ → elite zone, low draw risk	Wadi Degla @ 2.75

0/3
bet units 3
return 0
profit -3
total +19.25

 

[hercules]

PREGAME DRAWS
110/653 -38.55
96/309 RVS +22.55
14/35 GAP15-19 +14.65

TESTING AWAY WINS 30/64 +25.35

TESTING MODEL HOME WINS 31/68 +1.20

 

[hercules]

Match	Gap	Value Pick
NAC vs Excelsior	9	Excelsior 4.90
Charlton vs QPR	6	Draw 3.05
Leganés vs Granada	9	Granada
Helmond vs Den Bosch	2	Draw
MVV vs Jong PSV	20.5	Jong PSV
Roda vs ADO Den Haag	18	Draw

2/6
bet units 6
return 7.95
profit +1.95
total +21.20

 

[hercules]

PREGAME DRAWS
111/656 -38.50
97/312RVS +22.60
15/38 GAP15-19 +14.70

TESTING AWAY WINS 31/67 +27.25

TESTING MODEL HOME WINS 31/68 +1.20

 

[hercules]

Fixture	Odds (1 / X / 2)	Model Home %	Model Away %	Value Side	Value Gap	EV	Notes
Torino vs Fiorentina	1.65 / 3.00 / 5.50	48.7%	51.3%	Torino	+33.1%	+1.82	High risk
Lorient vs Brest	2.30 / 3.00 / 3.40	42.3%	57.7%	Lorient	+28.3%	+0.96	Medium
Heerenveen vs Twente	1.60 / 4.50 / 5.00	58.5%	41.5%	Heerenveen	+21.5%	+1.07	High risk
Feirense vs Leixões	2.55 / 3.00 / 2.63	42.5%	57.5%	Feirense	+19.5%	+0.51	Medium
Almería vs Cádiz	2.57 / 3.40 / 2.50	44.7%	55.3%	Almería	+15.3%	+0.38	Medium
Vitória SC vs Arouca	2.70 / 3.25 / 2.50	46.7%	53.3%	Vitória SC	+13.3%	+0.33	Medium
Spezia vs Entella	2.20 / 2.82 / 3.80	59.1%	40.9%	Spezia	+13.7%	+0.30	Medium
Eibar vs Zaragoza	3.40 / 3.10 / 2.25	41.9%	58.1%	Eibar	+13.7%	+0.31	Medium
Napoli vs Genoa	4.33 / 3.00 / 2.05	40.5%	59.5%	Napoli	2.05	+0.22	Medium

1/8
bet units 8
return 2
profit - 6
total +15.20

 

[hercules]

PREGAME DRAWS
111/656 -38.50
97/312RVS +22.60
15/38 GAP15-19 +14.70

TESTING AWAY WINS 32/4 +22.30

TESTING MODEL HOME WINS 31/69 +0.20

 

[hercules]

Rank	League	Fixture	Odds (1/X/2)	Model Prob (H/D/A)	Value Summary
1	Portugal	Benfica vs Alverca	1.18 / 6.70 / 18.0	51.2% / 20.0% / 28.8%	Massive value on Alverca
2	Portugal	Braga vs Rio Ave	1.20 / 6.70 / 14.5	48.9% / 20.0% / 31.1%	Enormous value on Rio Ave
3	Belgium	Club Brugge vs Standard	1.29 / 5.50 / 10.5	48.7% / 20.0% / 31.3%	Huge value on Standard
4	Serie A	Sassuolo vs Inter	7.00 / 4.35 / 1.47	28.5% / 20.0% / 51.5%	Massive value on Sassuolo
5	Greece SL	Olympiacos vs Panathinaikos	1.42 / 4.33 / 7.00	46.2% / 20.0% / 33.8%	Huge value on Panathinaikos 7.50
6	Belgium	Mechelen vs Antwerp	2.45 / 3.15 / 3.05	35.1% / 24.0% / 40.9%	Value on Antwerp
7	LaLiga 2	Sporting Gijón vs Huesca	1.85 / 3.30 / 4.85	38.2% / 30.0% / 31.8%	Strong value on Huesca
8	LaLiga 2	Málaga vs Cultural Leonesa	1.75 / 3.60 / 4.90	38.3% / 30.0% / 31.7%	Strong value on Cultural
9	Romania	Oțelul Galați vs FCSB	4.15 / 3.50 / 1.80	32.4% / 28.0% / 39.6%	Strong value on Oțelul
10	Greece SL	Aris vs PAOK	4.00 / 3.30 / 2.00	30.4% / 30.0% / 39.6%	Value on Aris, slight Draw
11	Serie A	Juventus vs Lazio	1.44 / 4.20 / 8.50	44.1% / 24.0% / 31.9%	Huge value on Lazio

1/11
bet units 11
return 7.50
profit -.3.50
total +11.70

 

[hercules]

Match	Team Value	Draw Value	Notes
Famalicão vs AVS	draw	draw	Market overprices Famalicão
Sheffield Utd vs Middlesbrough	draw	draw	Perfect 50–50 matchup
Amiens vs Clermont	draw	YES – Draw Value	Ligue 2 draw-heavy
Sakaryaspor vs Erzurumspor	Sakaryaspor	No	Big underdog value
Gaziantep vs Kasımpaşa	Gaziantep	No	Market mispriced
Portimonense vs Benfica B	Portimonense (big value)	No	Strongest value overall
Jong PSV vs TOP Oss	Jong PSV	No	Clear model edge